Re: Fold the turn? i put him on KQ
 

ok I clearly suck at this thread

Re: Fold the turn? i put him on KQ
 

ha. I'm closer to a 3-bet than a fold. But I call.

So what if he has KQ? Even if villan flipped over his cards and showed me KQ, I would still call and be correct.

Re: Fold the turn? i put him on KQ
 

ya but the question is.. once you call the turn..it gets harder to fold the river.

Re: Fold the turn? i put him on KQ
 

in situations like this if you call the turn you have to call the river. and calling the turn is correct, so call the river too. and by calling i mean not folding; some of these guys will want you to raise but i think that's more applicable at their levels and in their games than in yours.

Re: Fold the turn? i put him on KQ
 

You have 2 clean outs, plus possibly 6 for a bigger pair. Or you could be drawing dead to a set.

I'd expect only KQs to make preflop call, but if he's calling KQo then he probably also is calling 66 and 22. AK also is definitely not out of the question. I'm very hard pressed to believe AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would semibluff the turn like this, though. Your 3bet range connects with that board all over the place and he should know you won't be folding.

Doesn't really make much sense. Either way, turn is a clear call. Live, I think I could find a fold on the river since it's easier to read people, but online I'd probably payoff and hope for AK.

Re: Fold the turn? i put him on KQ
 

grunch

villain could have 66, 22. KQ is possible, would villain coldcall 2 oop w/ KQ (edit:and 22, 66)?

that said i'm not folding here. i would call the turn c/r. i would call villain's river bet too. if he checks the river i would bet.

Re: Fold the turn? i put him on KQ
 

How does villan have 66 or 22 here?

OK, I've done some maths here, I'm really bad at maths. Can someone correct me. I know this will be wrong:

Can we for now ignore how acurate my range is and also the fact that if he has one of those drawing hands and doesn't hit he wont pay off and if we hit our set we will get more bets and all that stuff. I am saying if we lose, we lose 2 bets if we win, we win 9.5 bets.

An example of my monkey math reasoning is:

KQ -: 9/24(8/46*9.5) - 9/24(36/46*2)

He has KQ 9 out of 24 combinations. 8 out of 46 of those times, you win 9.5 bets. 36 out of 46 times you lose 2 bets.


So here we go...I appolgise for making the heads' of all you math students explode

You are behind:
KK(3) 2 outs
QQ(3) 2 outs
KQ(9) 8 outs

You are infront:
AK(6) he has 2 outs
AdQd(1) he has 14 outs
AdJd(1) 12 outs
AdTd(1) 12 outs

15/24

KK-QQ -: 2(3/24(2/46*9.5) - 3/24(44/46*2)) = 2(0.05 - 0.23) = -0.36
KQ -: 9/24(8/46*9.5) - 9/24(36/46*2) = 0.61 - 0.58 = 0.03
AK -: 6/24(44/46*9.5) - 6/24(2/46*2) = 2.27 - 0.02 = 2.25
AdQd -: 1/24(32/46*9.5) - 1/24(14/46*2) = 0.27 - 0.02 = 0.25
AdJd
AdTd -: 2(1/24(34/46*9.5) - 1/24(12/46*2)) = 2(0.29 - 0.02) = 0.54

= 2.71

2.27 bets for calling down.


/* runs and hides in shame */

Re: Fold the turn? i put him on KQ
 

It should also be noted that on the rare occasions you hit an A villain is almost always bet/calling or bet/3betting (in which case you will cap), while you will never be raising with the worst hand (unless he will do this with JT in which case you are crazy for considering folding). And you are in position so if for some reason he checks you can bet. So you're making money on the river too.

Re: Fold the turn? i put him on KQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 raises</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9.5SB, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5.75BB, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises</font>.

Villan is tag and has been playing solid. Im thinking of calling the raise and then fold if i dont fill up on the river. What would you guys do?

[/ QUOTE ]

call down at least...the villain could be on AQo or AKo as well...of if he is on KQ, you have 8 outs (2 A' plus 3 6's &amp; 2's) which if one of them hits you can bet/raise...there is some possibilty he has a low set too...so i while i would stay in, i would not get wild...

Re: Fold the turn? i put him on KQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are behind:
KK(3) 2 outs
QQ(3) 2 outs


[/ QUOTE ]

A solid player will be capping KK &gt;90% of the time and QQ &gt;50% of the time. If these are included in your calcs, and I think 66 is a should be thrown in there 15% of the time.