Re: 200/400 stud8 tough spot vs bill gazes
 

I like the way you have played it. 5th is def a c/c I think betting is terrible there. A large percentage of the time you when you bet you will be raised. If you check a bet ges in almost always there even when you are ahead. No way you fold 6th. Fold the river if u dont improve though.

Re: 200/400 stud8 tough spot vs bill gazes
 

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I like the way you have played it. 5th is def a c/c I think betting is terrible there. A large percentage of the time you when you bet you will be raised. If you check a bet ges in almost always there even when you are ahead.

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It depends on whether that 'almost always' is true.

When you check 5th he will think you either made 88 + low draw or made an 8 low. It seems to me he should often check behind when he has a low pair.

If he will rarely check behind, then yes, you should definitely just check and avoid the risk of a raise from a freerolling, possibly scooping hand.

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No way you fold 6th. Fold the river if u dont improve though.

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I don't see how you can be so confident about the 6th call.

If we assume for the moment that you are up against a made low you are getting effectively 2.47:1 on your 6th street call, with severe reverse implied odds on 7th (for when you make 2 pair and he has a straight.)

If he has 2 pair you will improve about 41% of the time to the best hand, but your actual equity is 33% because he can escape with the low.

Basically... I don't know. But I know you need 2 pair with no straight to be a very strong possibility for him, and I'm not really seeing that.

It seems to me there is a good chance he would have played 4th or 5th differently with a hand like that.

OTOH his 3rd street limp kind of does feel like he started with a baby pair to me.

Re: 200/400 stud8 tough spot vs bill gazes
 

you seem highly worried that he might take a free card if he has a pair on 5th. if he has a pair + low draw our equity is roughly 55%. the equity loss of getting raised makes betting horrible.

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=7s8&b=&...Kc+Kh+3h+4h+8h

Re: 200/400 stud8 tough spot vs bill gazes
 

I'm confused as to this:

Why not bet the 5th? You're on a flush draw, and it won't trick him into thinking you have it, but the doubt begins to exist.

Or, out of Super System, check raise 5th and try to get a free card on 6th. That gets you all the way to 7th on 2 bets rather than 3. Do you not do this because he'll just reraise again with the razz hand?

Re: 200/400 stud8 tough spot vs bill gazes
 

assuming he always bets 5th when you check, obviously check call is best. Youre stuck with the hand when you catch another low heart on 6th and folding on the end would be horrible even when you brick...dontcha love playing high pairs in stud 8 [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: 200/400 stud8 tough spot vs bill gazes
 

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you seem highly worried that he might take a free card if he has a pair on 5th. if he has a pair + low draw our equity is roughly 55%. the equity loss of getting raised makes betting horrible.

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=7s8&b=&...Kc+Kh+3h+4h+8h

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Your logic sounds compelling but I don't know. If you consider a few more types of hands it's not so clear to me:

Razz hand + pair = ~59% equity for us
Two pair = about ~65% equity for us
Made low plus open-ender = ~40% equity for us (surprising)
Made low straight = ~23% equity for us (toast)


If we think he will bet most of his one pair hands, or if we think we cannot limit his 3rd street distribution at all, then it's a definite check.

But to me it rather feels like he has a razz hand or he started with a low pair. I may be wrong but I still kinda like a bet.

But certainly your line is reasonable. I find the 6th street decision a lot more interesting.

Also if he has made a low with an 8 down he will probably not raise us.

Re: 200/400 stud8 tough spot vs bill gazes
 

I'd probably bet fifth, but I like the way you played this one. I'd call on the river, but I always call on the river.

Re: 200/400 stud8 tough spot vs bill gazes
 

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assuming he always bets 5th when you check, obviously check call is best. Youre stuck with the hand when you catch another low heart on 6th and folding on the end would be horrible even when you brick...dontcha love playing high pairs in stud 8 [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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After thinking about, one has to call unimproved on 7th as there's a decent chance Bill has A7x, 76x, or 75x in the hole.

I also now think betting out or check-calling on 5th are prolly roughly even, and 6th is almost certainly a check-call (tho it does commit you to call unimproved on 7th IMO).

Be funny if Billy has 65, 22, 33, or 55 in the hole, and OP spikes a heart on the end to scoop. I actually do think he would've played 33/3 this way.

Very interesting hand that does indeed show the suckyness of high pairs in 7/8.

Re: 200/400 stud8 tough spot vs bill gazes
 

Betting 5th is just silly. Any pair and low draw can raise here and most likely have an equity edge doing so.

Re: 200/400 stud8 tough spot vs bill gazes
 

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Betting 5th is just silly. Any pair and low draw can raise here and most likely have an equity edge doing so.

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This is simply not correct. Check twodimes.

Also remember we are representing a low or a flush so we would rarely get raised by such a hand anyway.