Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

I'm doing this quickly at work but hope to come back and add more thoughts:

I think <u>Rudy</u> will lose steam once the rest of the country learns more about him. Many of his social beliefs are at odds with the conservative right and he wasn't very popular in NYC pre-9/11.

<u>McCain</u> is presumably the front-runner, but it will be interesting how he juggles his core beliefs vs. entertaining the far right. Also, he is tying himself to the success/failure of Iraq.

I think you'll see a popular governor emerge on the right, although I really don't know who at this point.

My problem with <u>Obama</u> is that he's not battle tested. He sounds like the real deal, but we'll have a much better picture of his chances 3-6 months from now.

<u>Hillary</u> has a crazy war chest and will probably be among the front-runners through Super Tuesday. So far, she has done really well in positioning herself on the war (basically laying the blame on Bush, pushing the public's thought away from her yes vote). Pre-Obama, she had several of the party's top communications and strategists on board, and several still are. She will be tough to beat.

I'm not sure yet about <u>Edwards</u>. I've liked how he's talking solutions while everyone else is posturing. He's also been man enough to admit his mistakes. I like him, but I'm not sure how much blame primary voters will lay on him for 2004.

<u>Biden</u> is done.

Others: Richardson had a great speech last week and could really pick up steam in the coming months. My guess is he'll have a strong shot at a VP nom. Same with Clark.

My pick - Gore. I really, really, really hope he runs.

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

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don't forget my boy mitt romney.

it takes some doing for a republican to become governer of mass. i don't think he has much national name recognition though, and he is a mormon, which might be a hard sell for the large christian republican voting bloc.

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Romney has set a goal to raise 1.7 million a day for his campaign. He is running it like a corporation. If somehow he ended up running versus Edwards it would be the most corporate white debate ever.

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

i never think the field can actually get worse next time and then 4 years later, it always does.

laywers and career politicians blow.

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

I don't think Hilary is a good choice for a lot of reasons, but one is that I don't we are in the best state of affairs as a nation to have a president that is a radical change. There will be too much focus on her being the first woman and that may lead to poor decisions and be too much of an issue to get anything done that people want done. Also too it may not be prudent to bring in a woman when in a war against a culture that despises women in general. On the war and terrorism front this will more likely escalate things rather than lower them, despite her platform.

On the republican side, I like both McCain and Rudy, but like Rudy a lot more. A lot more. I see the same on almost all his issues and am from NY, where I think he did a great job. Last election I voted how I voted simply on a lesser of 2 evils basis, as I didn't really like either candidate, but thought Bush was better. At least this time there will potentially be a candidate that I fully support.

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

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Barack : no realistic chance of even being the democratic nominee; too little experience and America won't elect anyone who's not white

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Cbloom - I am starting to read up on the candidates more, and at first blush this was my thought. However my buddy who was a political consultant for many years says that he's got a chance based on "the numbers".

Lil help? Anyone?

There is just so much misinformation / spin out there (for example, to Iron's point that Barack will have a solid black base - I read a long article in Slate noting that Clinton is polling better among blacks than Barack) - be great to know the "creditable sources" for polling data, etc.

-Al

Edit - aforementioned buddy just told me Polling Report is good.

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Barack : no realistic chance of even being the democratic nominee; too little experience and America won't elect anyone who's not white

[/ QUOTE ]

Cbloom - I am starting to read up on the candidates more, and at first blush this was my thought. However my buddy who was a political consultant for many years says that he's got a chance based on "the numbers".

[/ QUOTE ]

Not directed at me but I'll throw my .02 in. when someone is refering to "the numbers" like that with a candidate like Obama I would guess they are thinking about the 65%+ of the 18-34 demographic that doesn't vote but could get motivated by the right type of candidate. Plus a huge percentage of the minorities in the South.

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

My analysis of the GOP field. Not as much detail, because I'm not going to be voting for them. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

McCain - I put him at about %30 to win the nomination.

Resume - McCain has the strongest resume in the GOP field. Normally, a lifer in the Senate wouldn't be very strong, but I think McCain can overcome that. The standard knock on Senators is that they are too "inside the Beltway", but McCain's independence insulates him from that.

Wisdom - McCain has had an uncanny ability on picking the right issues to break from the White House. In places like Guantanamo detainees, Campaign Finance Reform and Taxes, McCain's independence from the White House has won him a lot of admirers. He's the GOP candidate I personally like the best and he will likely be the favorite among independent minded voters.

Giuliani - I put him at about 20% to win.

Leadership - When it comes to who the GOP wants leading the troops, my guess is that Giuliani is the man here. The fact that he's not associated with the war is a small plus, but America seeing Giuliani as a General in the War on Terror is a huge plus for him.

Crime - For voters who are worried about their safety, Giuliani is very strong here. He will spend the next year bragging about how crime dropped by 50% in NYC under his watch and he'll be able to point to policy initiatives to take the credit for that.

Mitt Romney - I put him at about %10 to win.

Positioning - He is the Hillary Clinton of the GOP. He is the most moderate candidate and will likely attract GOP moderates with his pro-gay, pro-choice positions.

Gingrich/Sam Brownback/Mike Huckabee

The thing I don't get with the GOP field is that none of the top 3 candidates are solid conservatives. McCain is the most conservative among the 3, but he isn't a fan of the neo-cons. Gingrich would be the most obvious choice to try to reassemble the Bush coalition of fiscal conservatives and the Christian Right, but I don't think he's going to run. Brownback and Huckabee (both GOP governors) would fit the bill, but they will have a tough time getting money and name recognition. The thing is, one of these 3 will likely emerge as the standard bearer of the right wing, but I have no idea who.

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Barack : no realistic chance of even being the democratic nominee; too little experience and America won't elect anyone who's not white

[/ QUOTE ]

Cbloom - I am starting to read up on the candidates more, and at first blush this was my thought. However my buddy who was a political consultant for many years says that he's got a chance based on "the numbers".

[/ QUOTE ]

Not directed at me but I'll throw my .02 in. when someone is refering to "the numbers" like that with a candidate like Obama I would guess they are thinking about the 65%+ of the 18-34 demographic that doesn't vote but could get motivated by the right type of candidate. Plus a huge percentage of the minorities in the South.

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I believe a lot of people view him as the "dream" candidate right now - honest, charismatic, fresh. However, we need to wait and see how people's opinions change once the mudslinging begins. Look how Bush brought McCain down in South Carolina in 2000 with dirty tactics. McCain never recovered...

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

Iron - just curious, what's your background in this field? Are you a political science phd? Work in politics? Concerned citizen?

-Al

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Barack : no realistic chance of even being the democratic nominee; too little experience and America won't elect anyone who's not white

[/ QUOTE ]

Cbloom - I am starting to read up on the candidates more, and at first blush this was my thought. However my buddy who was a political consultant for many years says that he's got a chance based on "the numbers".

Lil help? Anyone?

There is just so much misinformation / spin out there (for example, to Iron's point that Barack will have a solid black base - I read a long article in Slate noting that Clinton is polling better among blacks than Barack) - be great to know the "creditable sources" for polling data, etc.

-Al

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When he talks about numbers, he's talking about polls. With very little name recognition, Obama is already in 2nd place in the polls behind Hillary. Due to his relative inexperience, he also has a lot of "upside": ability to convince voters he is the best candidate, because the rest of the Dem field is largely retreads.

You're right that I made a mistake about Obama's appeal among blacks. I think he'll eventually overtake Hillary among Black voters because name recognition problems are magnified among blacks but that will be overcome by the time we start voting. However, Hillary's strength among blacks is largely due to her husbands extreme popularity among Blacks, combined with grumbling among the civil rights community that Obama "isn't black enough".

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Iron - just curious, what's your background in this field? Are you a political science phd? Work in politics? Concerned citizen?

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Concerned citizen who reads the newspaper. I donated $200 and about 4 hours to my local Democratic party in 2006, but mostly its a curiosity for me.