Re: TPNK from the BB
 

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A c/r is just about the worst possible thing you can do here other than openmuck, given stack sizes. What were the pot odds Villain was getting to call your turn c/r?

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I don't think this is true - when we get to turn I have almost exactly 1 PSB left and villains range here consists of 3 things

1. A draw that has anywhere from about 18-30% pot equity (diamonds with or without an A and/or gutshot)
2. A made hand that I have crushed (55-99, A4)
3. A made hand that has me crushed (44, 22, KJ, KQ, AJ)

If I push I am getting calls from group 3, folds from group 2 and group 1 could go either way

If I CRAI I am getting calls from pretty much everything - the only thing he might fold is a hand in group 2

But here's the point - with stack sizes to start the turn I want to get all-in against group 1, I want group 2 to put in as much money as possible and I am getting all in with group 3 either way. I think CRAI turn > push turn

BTW I really appreciate the feedback and I am enjoying the discussion

Re: TPNK from the BB
 

Ditto and it is an interesting one, but this part is buy-in dependent. They play worse but more transparently at $11's. Even then, it's still opponent-dependent.

And with 2PNK, FE is something you want here with one over on the turn. You don't want him to take a free card either.

So consider the frequencies at which he'll bet hands that fall into 1, 2, 3.

That's been influencing my thought process some. And I take multiple lines, sometimes at random, I guess that happens when you've played so many hands, especially postflop that it almost comes down to pure feel.

Maybe this, maybe that, but your line is not one I'd generally consider, although it's interesting.

If I'm Villain, I'm bet/calling generally with something that at least beats 2PNK on turn or has a redraw strong enough against the pot odds your CRAI would offer. And I'd consider those elements before deciding what to do on turn.

If I'm bluffing or figure you'll call the turn, I'll shove also. A t1600 bet from a decent opponent is an invitation sometimes to stick the rest in to get maximum value.

Re: TPNK from the BB
 

As a third party your disscussion has been really informative and enjoyable for me as well.

I really like your reasons for checking but think that it's a mistake to check the turn. With this flop, we have to assume that at least one of the villians is on a draw and if it checks through we just gave away a free card.

If your not scared of that king then open pushing is the place for me. That said this really seems to be opponent/read dependent.

It's kind of the simple approach but this might be a place not to over think it.

Re: TPNK from the BB
 

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I really like your reasons for checking but think that it's a mistake to check the turn. With this flop, we have to assume that at least one of the villians is on a draw and if it checks through we just gave away a free card.

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The risk of a free card to beat me is a consideration here and I agree it is somewhat read dependant. Without a specific read I think UTG+1 bets here often enough to make it a minimal concern - with 2 players left in the pot and both showing no strength after his flop action I expect him to stab at this pot a large majority of the time - either to protect his hand against the draws or as a semi-bluff against perceived weakness

Re: TPNK from the BB
 

Ok using this read we are putting UTG+1 on 1 of 2 plays.

1. He is protecting his hand from draws. Do we have a range here? Are we ahead of this range enough? If this is the case I'm worried that I'm not ahead here and maybe the check was ok. But now I question the all in.

2. If the UTG+1 is semi-bluffing then did we just price him in to the all in call? And is this what we want? We allowed him to play pretty good if we do.

Just my thoughts.

Re: TPNK from the BB
 

A bit to add, might have merit, nearing a bubble, there might be value in turn aggression.

Results
 

Well I really enjoyed talking about this one and I am still not sure if my line was good in general but it worked out pretty well in this case because he insta-mucked to my CR - I guess even lawn chairs have fold equity sometimes [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Results
 

LOL

Re: Results
 

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LOL

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