Re: panel hand - turn - panel review
 

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Unreal. We have at best 5 outs and we're getting 6 to 1. But we are so macho that having made a raise PF and fiddled a call on the flop, now we're thinking of *raising* because we have to fight for this pot. I wouldn't even be here but if I was, I'd fold without a second thought. I missed my BD draws and paired the wrong card. Mostly my opponent will have a jack and I am going to pay a minimum of two big bets to find out that I had no business staying in this pot.

What I want to know is, why bother learning about pot odds etc if I ignore them when it suits?

I suspect this hand has been chosen because we river something though or our opponent chose this hand to bet bottom pair all the way, so all those who think there is anything to do here but fold will be rewarded. But I sincerely hope not. Most times, raising PF, calling flop, raising turn, calling river will cost 4.5BB. My way would have cost 1SB. I like my way.

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wow dude, at least read the reads he gave in the first post. also, realize that most of the time you dont end up in a hand like this, and this is why the hand is interesting.

"5 outs at best" notrly.

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I read the reads. He said the guy was bad. Nothing more than that. He didn't say "bets bottom pair" or anything like that. Like I say, you guys just assume that bad means that he will play in whatever way allows you not to fold. God forbid you should actually give up on a pot!

Re: panel hand - turn - panel review
 

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the read is vague, and thus perfect to create arguments about the turn play here.

in the first post in this series, emp was described as "loose" and "bad in all ways, shapes and forms." it's easy to interpret this in ways that would lead to different turn plays in this hand. also, UTG is described as "loose and weak." i don't know what "weak" means, but if that means he would fold a low pair here after i call, then i can see how different actions result in different mistakes by the villains.

the reads are too vague and hard to interpret and this decision is too close for me to really feel strongly about any option here. im going to go with the assumption that the EMP player has any flopped pair or pocket pair, so i will basically assume that i am ahead of him on this turn about 60-65% of the time. given this assumption it would seem that raising is the best play. however, if the other player will make bad folds if i call (if that's what "weak" means), raising loses some of its benefits. hopefully everyone can see the dilemma i have here.

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party gives you 20 seconds to settle your dilemma miles. what do you do when you here the beep beep beep and ppl are typing "zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz" in the chat?

Re: panel hand - turn - panel review
 

I'm done, next hand please.

Even if utg overcalls and the house takes no rake, the pot is 7.25 if I call. (I'm not even considering a raise.) If I count my 2 T's and 3 Q's as full outs I'm not getting the odds to call if I think I'm behind and I don't have many reasons to believe I'm ahead here. I think it's too likely that we're dominated here to continue.

Re: panel hand - turn - panel review
 

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the read is vague, and thus perfect to create arguments about the turn play here.

in the first post in this series, emp was described as "loose" and "bad in all ways, shapes and forms." it's easy to interpret this in ways that would lead to different turn plays in this hand. also, UTG is described as "loose and weak." i don't know what "weak" means, but if that means he would fold a low pair here after i call, then i can see how different actions result in different mistakes by the villains.

the reads are too vague and hard to interpret and this decision is too close for me to really feel strongly about any option here. im going to go with the assumption that the EMP player has any flopped pair or pocket pair, so i will basically assume that i am ahead of him on this turn about 60-65% of the time. given this assumption it would seem that raising is the best play. however, if the other player will make bad folds if i call (if that's what "weak" means), raising loses some of its benefits. hopefully everyone can see the dilemma i have here.

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So, basically, you're just going to assume whatever means you can raise or call. We don't know much about our opponent, although we all know that the default is that they don't bet if they don't have TP, but you're assuming *based on absolutely nothing* that he has a pair that you beat.

I think it's a characteristic of the fish that they take the most positive view of their cards. Well, they think, I have bottom pair and it might just be good. So they call down.

Well, he mostly has a jack. The times he doesn't, I can live with.

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dr

what do you think he thinks hero has? if you guessed overcards, you are correct!

fuji

Re: panel hand - turn - panel review
 

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the read is vague, and thus perfect to create arguments about the turn play here.

in the first post in this series, emp was described as "loose" and "bad in all ways, shapes and forms." it's easy to interpret this in ways that would lead to different turn plays in this hand. also, UTG is described as "loose and weak." i don't know what "weak" means, but if that means he would fold a low pair here after i call, then i can see how different actions result in different mistakes by the villains.

the reads are too vague and hard to interpret and this decision is too close for me to really feel strongly about any option here. im going to go with the assumption that the EMP player has any flopped pair or pocket pair, so i will basically assume that i am ahead of him on this turn about 60-65% of the time. given this assumption it would seem that raising is the best play. however, if the other player will make bad folds if i call (if that's what "weak" means), raising loses some of its benefits. hopefully everyone can see the dilemma i have here.

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party gives you 20 seconds to settle your dilemma miles. what do you do when you here the beep beep beep and ppl are typing "zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz" in the chat?

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obviously you realize that i would never have reads at the table that equated perfectly to the vague reads you have given me to work with in this post.

either way, the typical behavior imo, with all of this players good hands, is that he would check the flop. i do not expect him to have a very strong J if that's what he has. i expect him to have one pair a majority of the time, and there are many 3x, 7x, and pocket pair hands that i am now ahead of on the turn. i do not see why he would slow down just because he got called and a pretty raggy turn fell. so, i feel like im ahead of this player pretty often.

i'd raise this hand given the information you've given me.

Re: panel hand - turn - panel review
 

i'd look for reasons to raise as this is almost an ideal card situation for a free showdown raise. the biggest factor working against that is that EMP may donk the river with a worse hand and the pot would be pretty large by that point. UTG is a concern. I think the key is to determine if he'd fold a pair+gutshot. if so, we will be able to fold him a very large portion of the time. if 3-bet by EMP HU, i think we'd have to let it go figuring a set or two-pair will cut too much into our 5 outs.

at game speed, i would probably just call. this is where the odd read is really starting to break down when it used 'bad' to describe him and made no mention of aggression/donk-factorness. I want to solidify my read. knowing what a player like this donks with is really valuable, especially one that I'll be hunting in the future.

a bit wishy washy of a response.. but i am pretty sure i'd call at game time. if i were never playing another hand again and had no incentive to try to get an extra read on this great villian, then i'd raise b/c i think that will have more value, especially if UTG will fold a hand as strong as a pair+gutshot.

(hopefully constructive) comments on panelists:
one:
panelist one wasn't clear, but it sounds like they recommended a fold. (I'm not a fan of making loose turn calls. You can try to argue that... But in my mind, it's bad...). however, this is inconsistent as they counted a T as .5 outs on the flop discussion and the rainbow T is the best T possible.

two:
"So if we are raising for value then I like it." I'd like to see more of a commitment to your choice. Do you think there's value in it, etc. You also talked about 5 outers a lot, but didn't mention the potential gutshot that many connector type hands may have now. Given the 'weak' read on UTG, he might fold a pair+gutshot which actually has a lot of outs vs our hand.

three:
"We will risk an extra bet compared to calling, but we will probably get UTG to fold and we also have the chance of getting emp to check to us on the river."
What if EMP donks the river? What if UTG stays in? Do you ever bet the river UI. I wasn't too clear on what your full plan was. The response seemed focused on what we hope will happen (UTG folds, EMP calls and checks river), but a raise like this needs to plan if its for a free showdown or for protection (but not necessary folding for one more bet).

four:
I felt for sure pFour was going to want to raise after the post on taking control of the hand. I like a turn raise much better than a flop raise. I'm curious how this panelist will compare the two when the hand has played out and all comments have been posted.

Re: panel hand - turn - panel review
 

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the read is vague, and thus perfect to create arguments about the turn play here.

in the first post in this series, emp was described as "loose" and "bad in all ways, shapes and forms." it's easy to interpret this in ways that would lead to different turn plays in this hand. also, UTG is described as "loose and weak." i don't know what "weak" means, but if that means he would fold a low pair here after i call, then i can see how different actions result in different mistakes by the villains.

the reads are too vague and hard to interpret and this decision is too close for me to really feel strongly about any option here. im going to go with the assumption that the EMP player has any flopped pair or pocket pair, so i will basically assume that i am ahead of him on this turn about 60-65% of the time. given this assumption it would seem that raising is the best play. however, if the other player will make bad folds if i call (if that's what "weak" means), raising loses some of its benefits. hopefully everyone can see the dilemma i have here.

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agree completely about the dilemma.

Re: panel hand - turn - panel review
 

btspider

i think the comments on the panelists is a good idea. note that there will be a post of the final review of the hand done by the panelists where actions may change.

Re: panel hand - turn - panel review
 

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What I want to know is, why bother learning about pot odds etc if I ignore them when it suits?

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b/c we might have the best hand. the best hand doesn't need outs.

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I suspect this hand has been chosen because we river something though or our opponent chose this hand to bet bottom pair all the way, so all those who think there is anything to do here but fold will be rewarded. But I sincerely hope not. Most times, raising PF, calling flop, raising turn, calling river will cost 4.5BB. My way would have cost 1SB. I like my way.

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higher variance doesn't mean less EV. we wouldn't call riv if we raised the turn. it'd be a free showdown raise for most suggesting it.

Re: panel hand - turn - panel review
 

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btspider

i think the comments on the panelists is a good idea. note that there will be a post of the final review of the hand done by the panelists where actions may change.

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post it in SSSH too.