Re: $27 AK on bubble
 

I push scenario 2. Scenario is much harder. I hate being OOP here, I'm not precisely priced in, and I miss 70% of the time, but I have AK. This is definitely read-dependent.

Re: $27 AK on bubble
 

I don't see how scenario 2 is a fold, Mack. We have AK with 10bb and no shorties around. Seems like a no brain push?

Re: $27 AK on bubble
 

Hand 1. Is a push you have tons of FE, and shorty isn't that crippled.

Re: $27 AK on bubble
 

Hmm, I don't know if I would push here for a couple of reasons. Most of the time, big stacks is going to be very conservative and let one of the little guys knock the other out before going any further, and you're second big stack. There really isn't a reason for the rich to eat the rich here and push one of you out of the money.

I would almost assure that big stacks has a pocket pair of some sort, which means you're either looking at a flip or being dominated. Why risk your chips on that? He's taking a calculated risk right now because of small stacks that could call him. Ask yourself what he is raising like this with, what could it be? Is he doing it with AQ? AJ? A10? Suited connector? Is this guy the type that will raise 3 times on those starter hands? Because those starter hands are the only ones that he will raise with and you will "dominate." Anything else is a flip or a split or you're dominated.

Most likely you're getting a flip out of this, which is great for big stacks because it gives him a huge chance to take you out of the tourney (with no money), and if he loses, he still isn't out. Do you want to play a flip?

In the second scenario, I would push and hope for a flip or getting lucky. The second one has you in dire straights and you need to do something to get that money up to a decent level. Push it, now is the time.




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Re: $27 AK on bubble
 

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Anyone else agree/disagree with Jay's assessment?


Scenario 2:
Now, let's say the chipstacks are:
CO (6155)
Button (3180)
Hero (2110)
BB (2055)
Does this become a push? or a fold?

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Hi

I push scenario 1 and fold scenario 2

Mack

Edit: I might push scenario 2 as well actually, we aint in great shape are we.

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There's almost no way it's ever correct to fold a premium hand like AK this late in a SNG. There's lots of chips in the middle, and if your stack isn't big enough to have FE, then it's short enough to make it a great double-up hand. There's only a couple bubble scenarios, which come up once a blue moon, where folding AK is +ev.

Re: $27 AK on bubble
 

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I would almost assure that big stacks has a pocket pair of some sort

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I can't speak for eveyone here, but I don't think this statement is accurate at all...

If I'm the big stack, I'm going to be trying to steal the blinds frequently with a relatively wide range in an attempt to increase my big stack.

Re: $27 AK on bubble
 

Push both hands!

Re: $27 AK on bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would almost assure that big stacks has a pocket pair of some sort

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't speak for eveyone here, but I don't think this statement is accurate at all...

If I'm the big stack, I'm going to be trying to steal the blinds frequently with a relatively wide range in an attempt to increase my big stack.

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That's an interesting play. When I'm big stack in a tournament, I know I'm not splashing around at all. I'm guarding those chips and giving up as little as possible until I'm in a much more dominant position. Once I quad or quint every other players stack, then I'm all in with anything on every hand.

My read would be based on my own play and experience telling me that big stacks isn't going to take any unnecessary risks and feed the small stacks. Your mileage may vary. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]




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Re: $27 AK on bubble
 

Hmm, easy push I would say. He might be stealing and if he calls it's most like 50/50 or you're a 70/30 favorite.

Re: $27 AK on bubble
 

I absolutely push both hands easily.