Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

Flat call & play position? I don't like the shove in a sat.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

I open fold this and don't think twice about it.

Look at the positioning of the table. UTG (you say is a good 2+2er, so what) is very short and has the big stack in the BB. He's going to have to steal and steal lots in order to make you uncomfortable about your stack. MP has a decent enough stack, and he obviously doesn't understand the satellite implications here so he very well could be pushing on UTG's BB as well.

There comes a point where you need to stop worrying about accumulating chips and wait. This is that point.

If you somehow become the shorty, then you can push/raise when necessary and work from there. But I think your play in 300% worse than his.

Brad

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

deleted by me

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

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MP has a decent enough stack, and he obviously doesn't understand the satellite implications here so he very well could be pushing on UTG's BB as well.

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Silly question but how do we know MP doesn't understand satellite implications well?

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

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Flat call & play position? I don't like the shove in a sat.

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Position? You are the SB.

I would fold and wait. I don't mind raising, open pushing, restealing with junkier hands in earlier position later on if necessary.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

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The blinds aren't big enough to risk running into a hand or an idiot.
I might have raised 2xBB to take the blinds if he had junk and folded to a re raise.

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I really dislike making a 2x/3x/4xbb raise here (but I'm sure it's probably better than doing what I did; having said that, I'm almost positive a min-raise/3xbb raise is -tEV and -$EV here). I'd open fold before I'd min-raise, but I'm willing to hear how others feel.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

I'd just complete.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

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If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

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Wrong. BB has an incentive to allow you to lose the tournament. He has enough chips to make this happen with reasonable hands.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

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If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

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Minraising just feels like a chip leak to me, particularly if he's not playing correctly. He's got a monster stack and he's almost certainly calling with any 2, which means I'm now building a pot out of position with a medicore hand that I'll almost certainly have to lay down on 85%+ of flops when I don't spike an 8 (and even on some when I do but the flop comes three suited and/or is highly coordinated, etc.).

If he's playing correctly, it doesn't seem to matter if I min-raise or push, right? And if he's playing incorrectly, minraising just allows him the chance to play perfectly.