Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]

If these are the ranges of the deeped stacked pf raiser and caller 7-handed and near the final table bubble, then they are playing way too tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, and the intially raise is a min-raise too.....hmmmmm.

Make me want to get involved a bit more.

I think a big part of the problem is that we have fold equity vs. the wrong hands when we push.

This is a tough spot.

What do you think of the 1/2 pot bet into 2 callers on this board? Weak or strong? I'm undecided...

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Give a shove say 30% to win right here. 50%, 1 caller. 20%, 2 callers. Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I decided that, against one caller, you are facing AQ. Against 2 callers, you are facing AQ and 99 (a set). Against AQ, you win 45% of the time. Against AQ and 99, you win 27% of the time.

30% of the time they fold: you end up with 51k
22.5% of the time, one caller and hero wins: 80k
27.5% of the time, one caller and hero loses: 0k
5.5% of the time, two callers and hero wins: 108k
14.5% of the time, two callers and hero loses: 0k

total: 39k
versus 28k if I fold.

Still, I think 30% fold is probably too generous.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
you are facing AQ and 99 (a set).

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have a set here, I jam it, not flat call, too many cards come on the turn that I really don't want to see, and I get called by the hands I want to call. (pair + draw, who are really only drawing to 8 outs that I have re-draws against, overpairs who put me on a draw etc)

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

What range of hands would villain smooth call a min raise and C-bet with? Villain would pop a set; quite possibly two pair. Would he smooth call a str8 draw or top pair...maybe top pair no kicker? Geez, it's a tough one.
I still think against two opponents, your "ten" outs are really compromised. If you're villain how do you play KJ?

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you're villain how do you play KJ?

[/ QUOTE ] Fold pf.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

nm

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're villain how do you play KJ?

[/ QUOTE ] Fold pf.

[/ QUOTE ]
hmphf....good point, that's what I would have done. I'm sooo confused. Excellent thought provoking post btw.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

Of course if MP1 doesnt have a set or 2pair, that begs the question, what could possibly be smooth calling the flop bet except for a made straight? A straight draw I guess, but even there the possibilities would be AJ, QJ, JJ, JT, J9, KQ. That's not the greatest group of hands against Hero's JT.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're villain how do you play KJ?

[/ QUOTE ] Fold pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are really going to fold KJ to a miniraise from the other big stack, in position with 44 BBs?

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're villain how do you play KJ?

[/ QUOTE ] Fold pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are really going to fold KJ to a miniraise from the other big stack, in position with 44 BBs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I'm also going to fold it if I am UTG+1 opening the pot. Both players were EP, with lots of players left to act, holding a hand that can be easily dominated.