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-   -   This one is bugging me, $400 PL08 (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=138245)

Mendacious 06-15-2006 08:11 AM

Re: This one is bugging me, $400 PL08
 
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This a standard fold.

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On the surface I agree , and I did fold.

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Please don't post hands like this.

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Please don't tell people what to post and what not to post when you are relatively speaking a NOOB!

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With that action in front of you: someone has a decent made high with likely redraws against your straight + someone likely has A3 + some of your outs are probably dead + and most of the outs which make your hand complete the low << 33% equity. You don't need twodimes to tell you this.

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This is the superficial analysis, and in fact it was very wrong. There were no "made highs" possible on that board, not even close, and NEITHER player had A3. It appears as though BOTH players had weak highs with low redraws and were "pushing". As it turns out-- and I am not ashamed to admit that I did need twodimes to tell me-- I still didn't have enough equity to call, even though the flop appeared to hit my hand reaonably well.

The points to be learned or discussed are:

1) What does it say about playing 2356 in position against a raiser and caller pre-flop? (This hand makes it pretty clear you need to flop an A to continue with the hand-- which is fairly elementary, but illustrative. (DaveBreal is right on the money here)

2) You can't just do superficial analysis at higher limits such as "someone has a made high and likely redraws and someone has A3", (which is precisely what I thought at the time) because people will make big Push moves at pots with holdings like top pair or overpair and a 2nd nut low draw.

Incidentally, what do you think of my opponents plays?


FeliciaLee 06-15-2006 08:26 AM

Re: This one is bugging me, $400 PL08
 
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Please don't post hands like this.

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Like Felicia has recently stated, we don't get enough frequent posters.. and fortunately or unfortunately Mendacious has somewhat of a veteran status around here.

Please do not discourage any PLO8 posts. Thanks.

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Dave! You sound so mature. Are you off your meds again? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

davebreal 06-15-2006 12:22 PM

Re: This one is bugging me, $400 PL08
 
No, although my lobotomy was a success.

gergery 06-15-2006 04:30 PM

Re: This one is bugging me, $400 PL08
 
I don't think you can be successful by both calling a preflop raise with that hand after two callers and then folding on that flop. You simply aren't going to flop better than that often enough to have your preflop call be EV+. And as you can see based on your equity, its the preflop action that is more questionable.

As to your opponents play, I don't like LesThugs preflop call but postflop is fine, although at the far end of LAG here. But he needs to be up against AA3/AA5 to be in trouble and is ahead of a number of other AAxx/A3xx hands. If you don't like it, you may have small balls, no gonads, a lack of testosterone, small berries if you follow my drift.

And you'd do well to listen to mxyplk, he gives very good advice and wins in higher games than anyone else i can think of here

-g

Mendacious 06-15-2006 07:15 PM

Re: This one is bugging me, $400 PL08
 
I agree, the hand really needs an Ace on the flop to do damage, and with a raise and two callers that is a low percentage flop, however, the fold was dictated more by the betting than by the flop. I certainly do not auto-fold my cards on that flop.

As for Lethugs post flop raise, I agree it is ballsy. It is a play I might make, but one I didn't expect to see when the cards were turned over. The ballsy aspect of the play is that it isn't automatic that he will get heads-up with the raise, in which case he could have miniscule EV. I agree he is only in trouble heads-up to an AA3 or AA5 hand, but that isn't so far-fetched either.

Which advise were you referring to by Mxyplk? The only advise I thought he gave was to not post the hand!

How do you know who Mxyplk is, I don't have any hands with anyone with that alias.


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