Re: Stars $5 re-buy. AA vs. Very loose player
 

Ok, so I should've bet more like 3/4 pot to full pot on flop (and pushed any turn, correct?). As played, check behind turn, which is what I did. What's the right play on this river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB (t10938)
BB (t10805)
<font color="#C00000">Villain (t28620)</font>
Villain+1 (t9600)
MP1 (t10350)
MP2 (t12650)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t4765)</font>
CO (t10350)
Button (t7025)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Villain calls t200, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t800</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Villain calls t600.

Flop: (t1900) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1000</font>, Villain calls t1000.

Turn: (t3900) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, Hero checks.

River: (t3900) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets t1200</font>, Hero ???

Thanks to everyone for your input

JoshNjuice

Re: Stars $5 re-buy. AA vs. Very loose player
 

1500 is a good bet on the flop.
Bet the turn, at least 1500, you still don't know where your hand stands. The K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a really big scare card. If you get re-raised, you might be able to get rid of it.

River: as it stands I think you need to push if you are thinkging about calling, you have 3 K, 3 Q, 3 T, 3 7, 1 Ace and any heart (9 max, I'd say FOR SURE 5), so given that all these aren't live I'd say you have AT LEAST 13 outs and at most 16-17, I'd say you have to push.

Re: Stars $5 re-buy. AA vs. Very loose player
 

I'm totally confused here. Why would I push the river? You're counting outs for a river push?

Also, if I bet 1500 on the turn and he raises, there'll be 6900 in the pot plus his raise. If he moves in after I bet 1500, I'll have to call 1500 to win ~8400, which is much better pot-odds than I'd need to call with the nut flush draw. Why pot-commit myself with this bet? And if I'm going to pot-commit myself, why not push?

JoshNjuice

Re: Stars $5 re-buy. AA vs. Very loose player
 

Neh. Villain's river bet is awkward. I think I'm pushing if I think he's FOS. Otherwise, force myself to fold.

Re: Stars $5 re-buy. AA vs. Very loose player
 

[ QUOTE ]
Neh. Villain's river bet is awkward. I think I'm pushing if I think he's FOS. Otherwise, force myself to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's the value in pushing the river here? What hand(s) will Villain call a push with that I can still beat? What hands would he fold that beat me if I just call?

I'm getting better than 4:1 on a call at the river here. Can I beat 20% of his betting range? If I can, I think it's a call; if not, I have to fold as I don't think I have enough chips to make him fold a better hand.

It seems like my only options are call or fold on the river here. Am I missing something?

JoshNjuice

Re: Stars $5 re-buy. AA vs. Very loose player
 

[ QUOTE ]
Neh. Villain's river bet is awkward. I think I'm pushing if I think he's FOS.

[/ QUOTE ]If you think he is FOS, why aren't you just calling?

Re: Stars $5 re-buy. AA vs. Very loose player
 

I don't think this changes the result too much.

I'm wrong, I go broke. I'm right, I got a nice stack.

Calling only cripples you or wins the same stack.

Re: Stars $5 re-buy. AA vs. Very loose player
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this changes the result too much.

I'm wrong, I go broke. I'm right, I got a nice stack.

Calling only cripples you or wins the same stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you push he is folding worse hands and calling with better ones. You can only lose more chips by raising.

Re: Stars $5 re-buy. AA vs. Very loose player
 

I don't disagree. I think my thinking's a bit flawed here from the fact Hero'll have only t1765 if he calls and loses.

Neh. I dunno. I don't think I mind going broke here too much if I want the pot badly enough.

Re: Stars $5 re-buy. AA vs. Very loose player
 

I am overwhelmingly confused by some of these posts.

AceLuby is counting outs when discussing river action.

And pushing this river has to be completely retarded. I'm also never folding this river, but I don't think folding is COMPLETELY retarded. If you call and lose you stil have 9xBB, which isn't ideal, but sucks less than folding a set of aces on the river for 1/3 pot bet.

Do you think he calls a push with KQ or whatever if you push? Aces up (very unlikely anyway)? Pretty much he calls when you are beat and folds when you are ahead.

There's no way, after checking behind the turn, and facing a loose opp that he has to have your AAA beat. I would say you are winning at least 50% of the time, and getting easily the odds to call.