Two Plus Two Newer Archives - 1/2 river vs tanshuiwen

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I think Dean's recommendation for BK to check with the intention to fold to a bet is the correct one vs me here.

Lately because of influence from Tongni I been folding ace highs more - so if I was playing against myself in this spot I check fold because:

1) If BK bets into on this board and given this action, I'm not calling ace high. BK is a player with a good reputation from 2+2 and more importantly (at least under the screenname BicycleKick) has not been a regular lately in the 1-2 games so I think he'll be playing more straightforward. So I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt that his BB caling range vs 2-hole raise has a greater propensity to be a 'legit holding' compared to something like 57s - which is why I can't call ace high there because legit holdings that can check raise this flop is far more likely to have a pair than a draw (yes I can get creative and think of hands I may beat but pot's not exactly huge, I can give it up). If I do call, I have 77 beat. In fact, if I hit that river I'm raising.

2) For very similar reasons, if BK checks the river I won't bluff/value ace high. There's three categories of hands that can occur here. Optimistically BK can have a busted draw, so I'm not going to bother betting if checked to since he won't call a busted draw. BK can have A-x and thought his hand was good from the flop since the flop is broadway-safe, but then it would be hard for him to call down ace high here, so there's no reason to bet. Lastly, he can have a pair, which betting into is no good since he'll most likely call (at least, I would think so). So I won't bet if checked to if I can't at least beat bottom pair.

The most likely scenario in this hand goes:

1) If I hit the river and BK bets I raise, he loses 1-2 bets.

2) If I miss the river and BK bets I fold, he gains 0 bets.

3) If I hit the river and BK checks and I bet and he folds he loses 0 bets, if he calls he loses 1 bet.

4) If I miss the river and BK checks I will check behind, and BK wins/loses 0 bets.

Given all the permutations, I think check-folding is better. I know my assessment of TanShuiWen's thinking is accurate - because well, it's me.

Phew, this got kind of long. Don't mind me - I'm pretty tired after a long on-line and then Commerce session.

~andy

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By your thinking bk should also be c/f'ing 6x or 9x hands in addition to 77 and 88 b/c you won't bet a hand that's worse. OTOH if he's folidng this many hands, you should prolly be bluffing more often when he checks to you and then he should be calling more often to compensate.