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-   -   NL $200 KQs Nut FD vs Reraise (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=499323)

Crispy Bacon 09-12-2007 10:40 AM

Re: NL $200 KQs Nut FD vs Reraise
 
I don't see how we can call. If a bad card comes on the turn SB will most likely push giving pot odds of 2.2:1 and we're only 4:1 to make the hand so we have to fold having donated a quarter of our stack. Giving him a range of A9,TT,99,T9 - On the flop our chance of winning is around 38%. And we have pot odds of 45% so he needs to fold over 7% of the time for us to push. It's probably very close between a push and a fold but I don't see how we can call here.

I'm not sure about my logic here so please correct me if I'm wrong. thanks

orange 09-12-2007 10:47 AM

Re: NL $200 KQs Nut FD vs Reraise
 
I like calling.

Crispy Bacon 09-12-2007 10:51 AM

Re: NL $200 KQs Nut FD vs Reraise
 
please tell me why my logic is flawed - thanks

thac 09-12-2007 10:53 AM

Re: NL $200 KQs Nut FD vs Reraise
 
[ QUOTE ]
please tell me why my logic is flawed - thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Giving him a range of A9,TT,99,T9

.. and you want him to fold 7% ?

He's not folding. He's not folding if a scare card comes probably. We still have a buyin left, why would you shove?

ikestoys 09-12-2007 10:54 AM

Re: NL $200 KQs Nut FD vs Reraise
 
implied odds bacon, implied odds

Crispy Bacon 09-12-2007 10:59 AM

Re: NL $200 KQs Nut FD vs Reraise
 
I'm with you, so obviously we fold the turn to a push if we miss?

thac 09-12-2007 11:01 AM

Re: NL $200 KQs Nut FD vs Reraise
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm with you, so obviously we fold the turn to a push if we miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely.

blah-blah-blah 09-12-2007 11:02 AM

Re: NL $200 KQs Nut FD vs Reraise
 
personally I never pot the flop. I would bet 22-26. SB never has AA and if he usually 3bet squeezes TT I would probably shove.


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