Re: 10/20 Live: TT in a big pot with a lot of action
 

Here's the thing. If you just call, he's getting 24:1, so he can profitably call with 2 outs. If you raise, he's getting 12.5:1, so he can only profitably call with ~3.5 outs. All that we know about the player behind us is that he cold-called 4-bets. He's either got us crushed or was trying to hit the flop hard, with the latter being more likely. If he's got two overs to the board, he's correct to call us whether we raise or not (but may fold due to the worry of getting 3-bet and capped, which is a definite possibility). A pair with a backdoor draw may call us anyway because the pot is huge. Basically, what I'm getting that is that raising is good. However, if a safe card comes off on the turn, then raising then is even better, because our equity has shot up significantly.

Consider the hand as played. If the guy behind us has a gutshot, he would be correct to call our flop raise and the cap (in sequence). Once the turn comes and we raise, he is once again correct to call with a gutshot, since he's getting 10:1 on his money. Had we not raised the flop, there would be less money in the pot on the turn, and we would have a larger edge, not only against the one player behind us, but against the rest of the opposition as well.

I guess the other argument to raising the flop is that we can be sure the maniac will 3-bet and face the other players with two cold...

Re: 10/20 Live: TT in a big pot with a lot of action
 

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I guess the other argument to raising the flop is that we can be sure the maniac will 3-bet and face the other players with two cold...

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Yeah I was maybe being results oriented, this is what I figured would happen.

Re: 10/20 Live: TT in a big pot with a lot of action
 

I still think we earn more on the turn, where maniac is once again likely to 3-bet, and now the players caught for two cold will be offered the chance to make a significantly bigger mistake.

Re: 10/20 Live: TT in a big pot with a lot of action
 

Ah, excellent point, I wasn't thinking a street/mistake ahead like that.

Re: 10/20 Live: TT in a big pot with a lot of action
 

To anyone advocating a flop raise, does your answer change if you are on the button/last to act?

Re: 10/20 Live: TT in a big pot with a lot of action
 

I reraise on the turn, and I bet the river. I expect that I will get value from the loose player, who probably just pays me off, because he wants my kid to go to college.

Re: 10/20 Live: TT in a big pot with a lot of action
 

cap turn and value bet river? at reast raise the river. pls!

Re: 10/20 Live: TT in a big pot with a lot of action
 

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Um, flop I think is just a call. There are a ton of cards that will make you want to just fold on the turn, so I would wait for a safe one and raise it then.

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These were my exact thoughts when I read the first post, FWIW.

Re: 10/20 Live: TT in a big pot with a lot of action
 

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Consider the hand as played. If the guy behind us has a gutshot, he would be correct to call our flop raise and the cap (in sequence).

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That's not true. He is going to pay 2 BB on the flop for a pot of 16BB while there is a flushdraw out there so he can't have 4 full outs. He is getting some nice implied odds though, but calling the flop here with a gutshot is borderline at best.

The same is true for the TAG. How can he know he has 6 outs against my hand? I capped preflop and raised the flop, so it should be pretty clear to him I have AKs or an overpair. If he has AJ/AQ he is in big trouble on average against my hand range and he will know that and fold against a flop 3-bet from the maniac a lot. Certainly since he not only needs to beat my hand, but the other hands as well.

Re: 10/20 Live: TT in a big pot with a lot of action
 

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To anyone advocating a flop raise, does your answer change if you are on the button/last to act?

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Not really. I know there is a hand in SSH with TT on a draw heavy board in a big pot, probably a bit like this hand. The main difference is that when I raise here the first time the whole table knows that they not only have to call my raise, but also the inevetable 3-bet from the maniac and a cap from me. Raising doesn't protect my hand, but capping certainly does!