Re: 66 hits set - wait or raise?
 

Thanks, it sounds like my suspicion that I should probably have popped it on the flop is favored about 2:1 here.

Results were unfortunate, and I wanted to be sure I wasn't just being results oriented.

For anyone who is interested MP was betting the 78 gutshot with a backdoor flush draw. BB called with the SAME 78 gutshot. A 9 fell on the turn. Not sure what the heck MP was doing betting into this flop.

Re: 66 hits set - wait or raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks, it sounds like my suspicion that I should probably have popped it on the flop is favored about 2:1 here.

Results were unfortunate, and I wanted to be sure I wasn't just being results oriented.

For anyone who is interested MP was betting the 78 gutshot with a backdoor flush draw. BB called with the SAME 78 gutshot. A 9 fell on the turn. Not sure what the heck MP was doing betting into this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually dont mind his bet. Its checked to him and no one raised pf. All he really has to get past is you and if he gets raised or checkraised then he can peel for his 4 outer and be done with it. I think he takes this pot down on the flop in his position enough to make this bet profitable. Also, if he gets past you and one one of the blinds or limpers calls he can reevaluate and take a free card or take the pot down w/ a bet ui.

Re: 66 hits set - wait or raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks, it sounds like my suspicion that I should probably have popped it on the flop is favored about 2:1 here.

Results were unfortunate, and I wanted to be sure I wasn't just being results oriented.

For anyone who is interested MP was betting the 78 gutshot with a backdoor flush draw. BB called with the SAME 78 gutshot. A 9 fell on the turn. Not sure what the heck MP was doing betting into this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually dont mind his bet. Its checked to him and no one raised pf. All he really has to get past is you and if he gets raised or checkraised then he can peel for his 4 outer and be done with it. I think he takes this pot down on the flop in his position enough to make this bet profitable. Also, if he gets past you and one one of the blinds or limpers calls he can reevaluate and take a free card or take the pot down w/ a bet ui.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I guess I shouldn't have said I didn't know what he was doing, since I came to the same conclusion as you after thinking about it.

Re: 66 hits set - wait or raise?
 

Definitely wait for a few reasons.

1) You don't want to drive out a loose/chasing call from the SB and BB. You would prefer the SB and BB chase with weak hands like middle pair and then hit trips/two pair on the turn.

2) Letting someone see a cheap turn doesn't seem too dangerous. Only a gut-shot kills you.

3) He is likely betting out a weak ace or middle pair. (It seems unlikely he is holding AK-AQ, given the preflop action) You don't want to drive him off KT-T9, or Axs, and when he hits two pair or trips on the turn, you are probably going to score several extra big bets.

Re: 66 hits set - wait or raise?
 

Typically it's correct to just fast play bottom set in a big field with any kind of draws on board. Best anyone could be drawing to here (realistically speaking) is a gutshot. Clearly it's different if the board is 2 suited on the flop.

I like your thinking on someone having a T or weak A stay in on the flop and raising the turn. It's slightly risky but could reap bigger rewards.

Any thoughts if the flop gets raised behind you?