Re: Even Cooler Problem Involving e
 

I'll take a short stab. I'll assume that I'll use the first girl as a control. so p=()-1. If there are 100 girls, I'll assume that I'll need a good sample, personally I will use about 10%; thus p=()-10 (if there are 10k girls, I'll go -1,000) Assuming that this may take a while maybe a couple hours, I'll have my normal standards (I work in a health club so a 7 to me is typically a 9+ish to most guys) and I won't even consider an 8 by my standards. I would say that I'll end up with a girl in the top 3% or top 3/300, but unlikely the top girl. I'll say that I'll leave with the top girl (again, assuming that I'm the only guy doing this) about 1% of the time.
Again, this is me personally.

Re: Even Cooler Problem Involving e
 

I am loving this thread BTW. I am not a math guy (By this forum's standards).

I am particularly loving DS's use of the word 'Even' in the title LOL.

Re: Even Cooler Problem Involving e
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'll take a short stab. I'll assume that I'll use the first girl as a control. so p=()-1. If there are 100 girls, I'll assume that I'll need a good sample, personally I will use about 10%; thus p=()-10 (if there are 10k girls, I'll go -1,000) Assuming that this may take a while maybe a couple hours, I'll have my normal standards (I work in a health club so a 7 to me is typically a 9+ish to most guys) and I won't even consider an 8 by my standards. I would say that I'll end up with a girl in the top 3% or top 3/300, but unlikely the top girl. I'll say that I'll leave with the top girl (again, assuming that I'm the only guy doing this) about 1% of the time.
Again, this is me personally.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, kudos on missing the point with such ferocity.

The key is that when the hottest girl H comes after our control sample {1...C} at position {1...C...H}, the probability she is picked is equal to the probability that the hottest of all the girls before her (H') is in {1...C}. Like:

1...H'...C...H...N

Instead of:

1...C...H'...H...N

But ordering is independent, so this probability is C/(H-1).

Re: Even Cooler Problem Involving e
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, kudos on missing the point with such ferocity.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh okay, I'll just skip over 2+2 next time and not give two [censored].

Re: Even Cooler Problem Involving e
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow, kudos on missing the point with such ferocity.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh okay, I'll just skip over 2+2 next time and not give two [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

Whaaa? Just re-read the OP and tell me that it has anything to do with your unusually high standards for women? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Even Cooler Problem Involving e
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow, kudos on missing the point with such ferocity.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh okay, I'll just skip over 2+2 next time and not give two [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

Whaaa? Just re-read the OP and tell me that it has anything to do with your unusually high standards for women? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

okay you weren't trying to level me and I'll stop being offended. I is not a maths person like the people here (obv). I just tossed my 2c and it seemed like you took it seriously. now, I wasn't meaning to be a jerk, I was just thinking through the process in my lehman's terms. didn't mean to offend you either if I did.

edit: it doesn't have anything to do with my standards, but then again, pretty is an adjective - therefore it is opinion.

Re: Even Cooler Problem Involving e
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'll take a short stab. I'll assume that I'll use the first girl as a control. so p=()-1. If there are 100 girls, I'll assume that I'll need a good sample, personally I will use about 10%; thus p=()-10 (if there are 10k girls, I'll go -1,000) Assuming that this may take a while maybe a couple hours, I'll have my normal standards (I work in a health club so a 7 to me is typically a 9+ish to most guys) and I won't even consider an 8 by my standards. I would say that I'll end up with a girl in the top 3% or top 3/300, but unlikely the top girl. I'll say that I'll leave with the top girl (again, assuming that I'm the only guy doing this) about 1% of the time.
Again, this is me personally.

[/ QUOTE ]

congratulations on making the single dumbest post i have ever seen on 2p2. thinly veiled bragging, complete oblivion to the topic at hand, abject stupidity; this post has it all.

Re: Even Cooler Problem Involving e
 

[ QUOTE ]
lehman's terms

[/ QUOTE ]

would be a great title for a golf pro autobiography

Re: Even Cooler Problem Involving e
 

I just flat out can't read.

And, to finally answer the question. I don't believe the probably will change much, as it will probably converge on a value. My guess on that value, as stated in my original post, which was made after I completely misread the question, is 1/3.

Re: Even Cooler Problem Involving e
 

I love this problem, and the answer is awesome, although I'd never seen it stated quite that way; I had seen it generally as the secretary problem.

I'm not sure if any of you are familiar with it, but there used to be (maybe still is) a dating show on MTV called "Next." There would be a van containing 5 potential dates for the contestant. The contestant's goal was to choose the best date, but he had to do so with incomplete information. There was some random order (maybe not actually random, don't know) assigned to them, and the show would start with the first one leaving the van to go on a date with the contestant. The contestant would have to decide if he wanted to choose this date, or "Next" the date and proceed to the next one, with no chance to revisit a date once he or she is "Nexted." One of my friends is a fan of the show, and he used to talk about the strategy he would use if on the show. It turns out to be essentially the same problem DS posed, and my friend's strategy coincidentally turned out to be the mathematically correct strategy when you consider rounding. I thought it was funny how that worked out.