Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

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anyone care to put UTG on a raise/call range and then do some maths and work out what what percentage of that range has a club in it?

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Villain is raising like 88-JJ, AT-AQ and KQs and not capping. That's 61 hands total, of which 36 have aces, 3 are 88, and one is KQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Of the remaining 21 hands (99-JJ, non-club KQ), 9 have clubs. So we are currently ahead of 21 hands (34%), but 9 (16%) have a club redraw against us. With two streets to go, that gives us 18%+8% pot equity under the most optimistic of scenarios (plus some small chance we suck out). Getting 14:1 you could call if you are a rosy-eyed optimist, and assume villain autoraises even 99-JJ and non-club KQ on this flop, and that SB has total trash.

BTW -- to answer your question directly, 9 of the 36 ace hands also have a club. So 19 total club hands out of 61 total.

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call me crazy but early in a session I'd probably made a call here EVEN if I thought it were -EV partly because I dont want anyone who is paying attention to start making moves against me. I want to keep everyone in line playing dumb, nice and predictable poker cos thats +EV for me.

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A 1 SB investment in your image.

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

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I used 6% for UTG and 40% for the other villain. I don't think I could raise it though since our implied odds must be very negative and I think we are behind more often than we are ahead. I am probably calling down until I see a club or a king.

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I think you're mistaking UTG's equity for hero's

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

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so if we have 15% equity
and 14:1 pot odds ~~ 6,6% then we can call flop probably

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Not that this isn't necessarily correct, but what major assumption does your 15% equity rest on?

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

we win this until river 15% of times
and we have to invest at flop only 6,6 of the current pot (1SB)
but at turn we still need invest (1BB) and also at river where we have to invest (next 1BB) - its true
so we have to more invets then 1SB at flop to win it 15% of times

can anybody analize this clearly ? (im not sure i make good thinking)

so fold or call this flop ??? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

Did you stove this? I am certainly capable of error but during the discussion I repeated the stove calcs several times and can't find my error if I am making one.

EDITED TO ADD: SO SORRY. I found my error. I was using preflop equity because I hadn't entered the board cards DOH. Non of my opinions hold up here [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] sorry

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

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we win this until river 15% of times
and we have to inwest at flop only 6,6 of the current pot
but at turn we still need inwest and also at river where we need more inwest - its true

can anybody analize this clearly ? (im not sure i make good thinking)

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JJ, what I was getting at is that you used villain's pf range to asses your equity post-flop. Is that same pf range of hands still realistic based on the board and the action?

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

ye, action at flop makes range much more narrow

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

I think u should fold. An A is a big part of a TAGs range here. U probably drawing to one out maximum.

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

I fold.

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I call and c/f unimproved on turn.

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If you are doing this because you think you're behind and can draw to the best hand, it's not a good plan.

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

clear fold, this hand is poor and you're likely behind + reverse implied odds and virtually no chance to improve...