Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

Thanks guys, very insightful. I ran a fairly conservative range in pokerstove as suggested (1st time I use it so I'm not sure I did it right), and it comes nearly 50-50.

Board: Ks Qd Td

Hand 0: 50.556% { TcTh }
Hand 1: 49.444% { AdKd, AJs, KQs, KdJd, KTs, QTs, J9s, AJo, KQo, KTo, QTo, J9o }

Obviously this is on the conservative side (did not include AdXd or KdXd - but also not KK and QQ).

My question is, this deep and early in the tournament, is it not better to wait for a better spot than engage in what seems to be (mathematically at least) a coin flip at this point? I understand that with the money already in, I'm only puttnig 44% of what I could win, but is that small edge (50 vs 44) sufficient to gamble this early?

As you may have guessed, I folded (expecting to see AJ) and didn't get a hand/hit flop with a few exceptions and ended up busting 50th or soemthing. So maybe I should have pushed the small edge there.

This has been really helpful to me so far, I'm just trying to learn more. Thanks again!

Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

Why are so many people including combo draws in his range?

He's seen a raise, and a re-raise on the flop, so he's gotta think you guys are pretty strong, and then he raises, but doesn't push. Does he really want someone pushing back at him if hes got something like KJ on this scary a board?

I think the flop action makes this more likely to be a made hand that is afraid of the draws than a combo.

So I'd say range was more like AJ, KQ, K10...

That said, I think its probably a push, because against this range you are still pretty good and if the board pairs you wont know whether it has just saved you or [censored] you, and its going to hard to get AJ to pay your FH.