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-   -   NL50: TPTK OOP gets raised on flop on fairly dry board by unknown (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=547629)

doodydota 11-16-2007 03:34 PM

Re: NL50: TPTK OOP gets raised on flop on fairly dry board by unknown
 
I see a weaker queen raising here quite often as well as a set.
A queen might hate the perspective of big turn and river bets, so this might be kind of a 'blocking raise' - if villain is agressive.
A queen might like to define it's strength and end the hand right here. I might raise a queen exactly like this, in case u have AK or and underpair if you have been playing agressively and cbeting lots.


I'm new to pokerstove stuff. Is it aplicable as following?


If we put a lose villain calling from MP on a range of TT,22,AQs,KQs,QTs+,AQo,KQo,QTo+ here, then against this range our equity is:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.766% 42.68% 09.09% 14366 3058.50 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 48.234% 39.15% 09.09% 13177 3058.50 { TT, 22, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }


If our villain is calling tighter from MP we can exlude QTo, QTs, and possibly 22, then our equity goes way up:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.257% 53.96% 12.30% 13355 3043.50 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 33.743% 21.45% 12.30% 5308 3043.50 { TT, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo, QJo }

well named 11-16-2007 04:06 PM

Re: NL50: TPTK OOP gets raised on flop on fairly dry board by unknown
 
I'm not sure I'd include QJo (or maybe even QJs) in a "tight" calling range, and I probably wouldn't exclude 22,JJ+ either, since this is an unknown, and people love to call with small pairs, and there's no reason to be certain he always re-raises big pairs, although you might discount them somewhat. I'd probably be more inclined to include semi-bluffs with straight draws then QJ.

Calling an unknown UTG raiser with QJ and raising the flop with TPMK just seems so bad to me.


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