Re: NL 200 AA, facing CRAI on a dry flop
 

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I don't play near these limits so please help me understand why this is such an easy call. I usually fold in spots like this...
Before you call me weak tight: I think his range for doing this is a set, AK, KJ, QT. What else do you expect him to CRAI with?

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It's not an easy call for me, but it's a call. Reason is that I think that I'm ahead against most of his range especially when he makes that strange AI reraise. As you said, in his range is AK, maybe KQs, perhaps some weird overplayed OESD , all hands that we are a pretty clear fav against. Though he had JJ this time, I would generally rule out KK and JJ, as most of the opponents would reraise with those. KJ "should" (should, you never know of course) not be in his range, as cold calling those PF raises with KJ is big crap, I guess we are all of this opinion. That leaves only 22 which he could ve been setmining with, although a push on the turn is a bad play by him then.
To sum this up: I think this is a call because we are ahead against most of his possible holdings.

Re: NL 200 AA, facing CRAI on a dry flop
 

Alex,thanks!
As stated, the guys I usually play with would have no trouble calling with KJ in this spot and with KK, JJ they'd think they were being tricky... as this guy here was probably thinking.

Re: NL 200 AA, facing CRAI on a dry flop
 

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I don't play near these limits so please help me understand why this is such an easy call. I usually fold in spots like this...
Before you call me weak tight: I think his range for doing this is a set, AK, KJ, QT. What else do you expect him to CRAI with?

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It's not an easy call for me, but it's a call. Reason is that I think that I'm ahead against most of his range especially when he makes that strange AI reraise. As you said, in his range is AK, maybe KQs, perhaps some weird overplayed OESD , all hands that we are a pretty clear fav against. Though he had JJ this time, I would generally rule out KK and JJ, as most of the opponents would reraise with those. KJ "should" (should, you never know of course) not be in his range, as cold calling those PF raises with KJ is big crap, I guess we are all of this opinion. That leaves only 22 which he could ve been setmining with, although a push on the turn is a bad play by him then.
To sum this up: I think this is a call because we are ahead against most of his possible holdings.

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Let's get this right, and for the moment assume that the passive stats for villian are based on a reasonably credible sample - you are saying that villian, despite being passive, waits until there is a multi-way pot and then chucks all his chips in with AK/KQ or something? If people are prone to doing that you generally pick up on something pretty quick. Almost always, his stats suggest someone who like to see flops and hopes to get lucky. Not really the type to c/r a/i with a skanky top pair. If they had AK they are probably almost as likely to c/r a/i PF.

Anyway, you don't have many hands and normally I scoff at the nittyness (nittiness?) of FR players, as someone that usually plays short handed, but I'd fold here if I had any real confidence in the read.

Re: NL 200 AA, facing CRAI on a dry flop
 

meh, since results were already posted I'll just say that I'd call again if he pulled the same move on a similar board.

Re: NL 200 AA, facing CRAI on a dry flop
 

It's not really an EASY call, but this is a call.

Re: NL 200 AA, facing CRAI on a dry flop
 

With a AF of 0.5!, I think this is a clear fold.
You need him to do this move with QT or AK a reasonable amount of the time and I can't see how such a passive player would do this with those hands very often.
Since the board is rainbow and there are no combo draws out there, I say this is a fold.
If a few combos of AK or QT were in his range, then this would be a call getting about 3:2.

Re: NL 200 AA, facing CRAI on a dry flop
 

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With a AF of 0.5!, I think this is a clear fold

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0.5 over only 55 hands. That sample is pretty useless IMO...

Re: NL 200 AA, facing CRAI on a dry flop
 

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With a AF of 0.5!, I think this is a clear fold

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0.5 over only 55 hands. That sample is pretty useless IMO...

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True, you need a lot of hands to have much confidence in the agression factor, but the point is his stats were 27/3/0.5. When was the last time you had stats like that 55 hands into a session? It is not meaningless data when looking at how likely someone is to check raise a marginal weak hand, especially after PF. It's def a fold.

Re: NL 200 AA, facing CRAI on a dry flop
 

meh it seems like a fold to me to but the only hands that make sense that beat us are 22 and KJ. What else plays like this though? Nothing.

Re: NL 200 AA, facing CRAI on a dry flop
 

I'm just saying that making a call dependent on how his AF is after only 55 hands is rarely a good choice. For example I think his "Went to showdown" and "Folded to CB" (or "Folded to Flop bet") stats etc would be interesting, as well as reads by the OP.
For example: say villain did not see any good hands so far and if he had a part of the flop, he was pushed off those hands several times. Now he has TP2K (just as an example of course) and feels like: "ok this time I'm not going to be pushed around" - mood. I definetely don't think that we can rule that out completely and therefore, villains AF shouldn't be too big an indicator here...