Re: 50NL: I make a weird spot for myself in unraised pot
 

Been thinking about this hand a while, still not sure.

For the sakes of argument I want to ask: how big a mistake in terms of EV over time can folding to the flop rr be?. What can happen from here on in the hand?

> We call, then fold on turn
> We 3b, fold to his push
> We 3b/get ai and stack UI overpair, set or TP
> We 3b/get ai and lose to overpair, set or TP
...etc...(there are probably 100 more)

So how do we find a +EV path through that? If we have a solid read, then maybe we can play that, but other than that?

Reasonable or nonsense? Throw in the fact we are in an unraised pot, and the more I look at this hand, the more I want to give up on the flop after we are rr.

..............................................

As an aside, there's something I remember from LGB. Gordon says he feels more vulnerable with top & bottom than bottom two. IIRC this is because TP or an overpair have an extra out: the card in the middle. So if he has AA, he has AA888, if he has AJ, he has AAA888.

But when we have bottom 2, villain has one less out:, with AJ he has AAAJJ, with AA, AAJJJ.

lol. I had a funny cigarette earlier so that might not be right, but it's something like that.

Re: 50NL: I make a weird spot for myself in unraised pot
 

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min raise is terrible...I probably just call his raise back

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jony, this reply is terrible...I probably just wish you had stated a decent reason why.

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if u can tell me why the min raise is good and then I'll explain why it's terrible

Re: 50NL: I make a weird spot for myself in unraised pot
 

lol I don't think you have a reason for it being terrible jony, just that you hate minraises.

I like the raise size because it applies pressure to his hand, if he just calls I can be reasonably certain he is on a draw and fold if the club comes. If it doesn't I can apply more pressure with a bet, or do something funky like a check/raise. Also, due to the size of the raise I don't think I'm applying huge pressure either. Putting in half my stack in an unraised pot is a really strong move.

I don't like a large pot-sized raise because its very scary, even if my image is somewhat wild. I hadn't been taking any uncontrolled stabs at pots or anything. Its also very possible for a frustrated and very bad player to do something stupid to the 3rd raise, like just shove in and hope I'm bluffing with some weak hand or whatever.

I basically thought along the lines of the guy who stated earlier my 3rd bet looked really weak and I look like a draw. Thats what I thought villian may have read me for, or he may have just gotten angry and shoved. I also think a bigger part of his range are hands like 68 rather than J8 just because J8 is such a large gapper he may not limp it. More importantly, even this guy may raise JJ, so I'm really am only scared of 66 or 88. If he was a tighter player, his range would be more weighted to sets and I would have to fold.

To answer your question Chomp, the difference between stacking off and not stacking off is huge. The decisions in NL for large portions of your stack and especially your entire stack are the difference between being a winning player and a losing one. I really think the few small pots you end up stealing just add to the winrate.

I called here, and the guy had 68. My hand held up. I don't know if that means my play was good here or not unfortunately. If he had turned up with a hand like QJ, QQ, or something like that I'd have a much better idea.

Re: 50NL: I make a weird spot for myself in unraised pot
 

I use minraises all the time IN POSITION

here though, given a range I'm looking to get it in now and protect against stupid [censored] action killers where we end up check/folding b/c he "got there"

I'd make a normal size raise, but not pot


range of 66, 88, J8, 68, and a [censored] ton of combo draws=we have to get it in as played

we're 40/60 vs. 66, 88, J8 and 68 alone...throw in the random time he does dumb [censored] like limp QQ-AA and the draws this is an ez call. I'm leaning less towards the draws though b/c most donks don't play their draws fast

Re: 50NL: I make a weird spot for myself in unraised pot
 

yeah, I think using minraises in position is terrible lol.

Re: 50NL: I make a weird spot for myself in unraised pot
 

Grunch

Looks good, 97 has you crush, but his range is soo wide here and your are a favorite against it it seems, but only a slight favorite, so getting it in on flop must be good.

Alternatively give it up, which cant be a big mistake.

Re: 50NL: I make a weird spot for myself in unraised pot
 

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97 has you crush


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go to bed Dad

Re: 50NL: I make a weird spot for myself in unraised pot
 

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97 has you crush


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go to bed Dad

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Yeah I should .. need to prepare for tomorrow ... tho very very tired ... hyachayahcayahcay goddammit son of a bitch.

Re: 50NL: I make a weird spot for myself in unraised pot
 

I don't like the min raise at all. I have to say it is quite tight but I am leaning towards a fold. He could have AJ, KJ something like that yet to me it seems makes up a good portion of his range.

Re: 50NL: I make a weird spot for myself in unraised pot
 

The min-three-bet is silly. Your idea of its value is predicated on the notion that a real three-bet and a weak three-bet appear completely differently to villain, so that he'll be able to escape with lesser hands if you put in a real bet, but will "sense weakness" and shove or call with those same hands if you bet weakly. This is improbable, especially because bet/min-3-bet is the way that a lot of donkeys at these stakes play their monsters.

"Gee, he reraised to $16. Bottom two no good. Muck!"
"Gee, he minreraised me. He's full of it! Shove!"

For reals? And if you're wrong about that, and I really believe that you are, then the only difference between the weak bet and a strong bet is that you allow draws to play profitably against you. Even if you were to check/fold a club turn, villain can still call correctly (profitably) on the flop with Ac2c. Allowing your opponent to play perfectly against you in that situation is a massive mistake on your part.