Re: 99 overcards to flop
 

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Baboon,

Your turn bets are wrong. They should be less.

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It probably looks wrong because the pot size on the flop is in BB, not SB.

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My bad. Thx buzz.

Re: 99 overcards to flop
 

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Buzz, kerowo,

I'm just thinking out loud. I'm not sure whats best. Let me ask it another way: if we are good often enough to call twice and we have the turn overlay of a player likely drawing and we can 100% throw our hand in the muck if either 3-bets why would raising not be better than just blindly calling twice?

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no problem mate. I'm not so fond of mucking when it appears (although it's not entirely clear to us) that we may be dealing with a maniac. Like ozzi, I think the postflop AF (or even aggression by street) would be helpful here. So I go to my default wa/wb calldown mode. I really hate calling down here, but sometimes I am pleasantly surprised.

Re: 99 overcards to flop
 

It doesn't look like we can raise anybody out on the turn. I think we are behind here and if we are we have a problem. No outs against a made straight. 2 outs agains a set. 6 outs (but we don't know which ones) against 2 pr.

I don't think a turn fold would be a mistake here. But if we call we have to call the river as well,I think,and I hate our implied odds if we do happen to be ahead.

THIS IS A QUESTION FOR ALL- NOT AN ANSWER:

Assuming typical opponent, not a maniac etc. What if we default cap (the flop) planning to fold to a turn donk or check the turn through? Will we, on average, save enough to see showdown profitably in these situations (when villain doesn't donk) or do we need to keep the pressure on for some other reson?

Re: 99 overcards to flop
 

do you think this guy would play

88, 77, 66 like this ... or A5?, or a 78, A6 (well - basically a GS or OESD)??

if so ... well - then it's a little harder to fold

but a donk and 3bet after another guy cold calls two is pretty strong ... don't feel bad about folding

Re: 99 overcards to flop
 

aggression numbers flop/turn/river/total:
MP3=1.53/1.79/1.08/0.86
CO=1.83/1.60/2.00/0.54

Re: 99 overcards to flop
 

sean - there's a flaw with your rationale regarding a 3bet especially given the ranges you assigned to the villains.

Re: 99 overcards to flop
 

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aggression numbers flop/turn/river/total:
MP3=1.53/1.79/1.08/0.86
CO=1.83/1.60/2.00/0.54

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IR ... don't pay too much attention to those stats over such a small sample size
keep them in mind ... but try to pay attention to what is make those stat

Re: 99 overcards to flop
 

BBB,

You mean a raise not a 3-bet. Like I said earlier in the post I'm not saying its right I was just thinking out loud. I have spent some time thinking about this and plan on stoving it tonight but I think there are a few important factors involved in what the correct turn action should be. Our equity vs both players ranges, the value of the overlay of MP3 and our river plan(if I just call here there are alot of river cards I'm folding to especially not closing the action).

If you see a flaw in my rationale feel free to show me.

Re: 99 overcards to flop
 

good catch, yes raise not 3bet

is this a free showdown raise or are you firing the river again if you just get called on the turn? if you're willing to invest 2 more bets at least then why not call turn, see river, giving us a chance to hit our 2 outer?

Re: 99 overcards to flop
 

I'm not sure if we have a 2 outer. There are not a whole lot of river cards I can imagine v-betting here but I wasn't thinking free showdown raise which means its may be best to just fold the turn and probably makes raising retarded. My point was if you were going to blindly call the turn and river would it be better to raise and gain the overlay from the drawing MP3. I don't know thats why I'm going to spend some time on this tonight. I mainly threw it out there to see if someone could blast holes in my thinking before I go through the exercise. Very interesting hand IMO.