Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

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Indy -3 (-125) is a far better line.

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Is my reasoning correct as well? Or did you just quote the only part of my statement that wasn't retarded? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

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(remember they beat the Colts a couple years ago).

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I remember Indy getting even better and the Chargers changing coaches and trying desperately to flush a bunch of talent down the toilet.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

Yes.

Winning team's margin of victory in the NFL is exactly 3 points 14.51% of the time.

Moving a half-point on to the three is worth a lot more than 5c.

-3 -125 is a vastly superior line to -3.5 -120.

the move from -3.5 to -3 is worth about 25c on the open market. So if you thought -3 -125 was the fair line, you should get -3.5 +100 or so.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

kyro,

If you do some lineshopping, you can find much better than -3.5 -120. Matchbook has -3.5 +109. Even super-square Bodog is dealing -4 -105 which is marginally better than -3.5 -120.

+109 after MB commission has BE requirement of ~48.5%. -120 has BE requirement of ~55%. Huge difference!

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

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kyro,

If you do some lineshopping, you can find much better than -3.5 -120. Just as early as yesterday Matchbook had -3.5 +110. Even super-square Bodog is dealing -4 -105 which is better than -3.5 -120.

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As I'm just starting out, I'm going to do the best I can with this one site. I realize I'm missing out on some value, but if this turns out to be a losing prospect, it won't matter, and if I think I can win, I'll put some money on other sites soon enough. Thanks for the tip, though.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

the line I quoted was from bookmaker btw

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

-2.5 -145 is even better if they'll let you buy a half point.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

Colts injury list doesn't look too pretty atm including but not exclusive too;
Brackett
Brock
Clark
Freeny
Gonzalez
Jackson, Marlin
Ugoh
Harrison
Keiaho

Its only early in the week and most guys could/probably will suit up but i'd keep an eye on it... on the flipside Merriman Phillips and Jammer are on the Charger's injury list... if the OLB's don't play manning will have all the time in the world

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

I took the Chargers +4 -110 when sites had them at +3.5 +100.
A lot of factors here makes me like the Bolts in this game. Here are just 3 of them.
#1 The line is inflated based on last weeks Chargers road performance.
#2 Colts Injuries
#3 Colts coming off an emotional loss and I don't think this helps them as I've read some people suggest on forums. Colts are 8-11 ATS coming off a loss since Dungy has been the coach.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

Instant action has them -3.5 at +105, pretty sick..........