Re: Large Pot With Aces
 

Holy [censored] Man - how in the hell are you? Welcome home and thanks for the post.

Jeff

Re: Large Pot With Aces
 

What hand can the 3 bettor have here that we outs against? I cant imagine your weighted outs are more than 1. I am assuming that MP guy will never do this with only the Ac. That said, Im certainly ok with lighting some EV on fire for the sake of sanity.

Re: Large Pot With Aces
 

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LOL.

sick spot.

the only hands i can see the CO call 2 cold there on the turn are A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K or KK,



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I don't see why--the pot's so large they'd be justified in calling with virtually anything.

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and i'm gonna assume mp isn't pulling this w/ less than a set (thoughts on this?)



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He'd probably bet to protect his hand with virtually anything, again because of the size of the pot.

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in which case you're drawing to 1 or 2 outs.



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Or he has 2 pair, in which case you have 6 outs. Or he has a pair of sevens and is hoping someone will fold a pair of eights, or...

No reason to give anyone credit for a monster hand here.

Re: Large Pot With Aces
 

The way this has played out I don't see how CO doesn't have AcKx or KK like always. The turn c/3bettor should have a flush/set always as well. I am pretty sure I'd just fold now, but I don't think I could blame you for putting them both on a set and calling the turn. Then call the river again just in case.

BTW I raise flop without even thinking about it. Anyone folding anything is good for us at this point.

Re: Large Pot With Aces
 

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On the turn, I would call and pray that the three better is getting aggressive with a pair and a flush draw like AcKd or has a set in which case you might have two outs to outdraw him for the win unless the other guy has a club or the made flush already.[ QUOTE ]


This holding wouldn't make much sense. There was no preflop raise from this MP player. Based on distribution AK is somewhat unlikely as we're putting the CO on AK or KK fairly solidly.

What sort of hand does he limp and then call two more bets back preflop and then jam this turn. 77 or 55 make a lot of sense as does an Ax[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] holding. Pot size would disincent a move here with just a naked A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and he'd have to hold AQ or AJ for it to make much sense, both of which may have resulted in a preflop raise.

Despite Jeffage's read that he:

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who plays very well but is capable of making moves, playing very aggressively.

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with the benefit of consideration, I'd now change this to a fold though I'm sure in the moment that huge pile of chips would having me calling down.

Re: Large Pot With Aces
 

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Anyway, game was loose and playing a bit wildly.

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and also getting 28:1 (wheres emerson when we need him)
id call down but id be cry cry crying the whole time

raise the flop it will help define everyones hand better
and most likely we'll just end up calling down from there
unless its CO who 3bets then id raise him again on the turn

Re: Large Pot With Aces
 

Repost of the above due to butchered editing. I'd add that smaller suited connector clubs are also a possible MP holding...

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On the turn, I would call and pray that the three better is getting aggressive with a pair and a flush draw like AcKd or has a set in which case you might have two outs to outdraw him for the win unless the other guy has a club or the made flush already.

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This holding wouldn't make much sense. There was no preflop raise from this MP player. Based on distribution AK is somewhat unlikely as we're putting the CO on AK or KK fairly solidly.

What sort of hand does he limp and then call two more bets back preflop and then jam this turn. 77 or 55 make a lot of sense as does an Ax[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] holding. Pot size would disincent a move here with just a naked A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and he'd have to hold AQ or AJ for it to make much sense, both of which may have resulted in a preflop raise.

Despite Jeffage's read that he:

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who plays very well but is capable of making moves, playing very aggressively.

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with the benefit of consideration, I'd now change this to a fold though I'm sure in the moment that huge pile of chips would having me calling down.

Re: Large Pot With Aces
 

yeah, ill. I think you have to call and hope that someone is pumping it up with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or trips. With 8 in on the flop the odds that someone is holding two clubs are probably around 25%; you can only improve with counterfeiting someone else's pair that doesn't give them a boat, or hitting your one-out-non-club-trips. Are you good enough 14:1 ? yeah, reckon. so call it down unless fourth club hits the river.

Re: Large Pot With Aces
 

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I don't see why--the pot's so large they'd be justified in calling with virtually anything.


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do some hand reading. he capped preflop, bet the flop and turn on that board then called 2 cold after it went check/bet/raise/3bet, it's not like he's gonna have JJ here.

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He'd probably bet to protect his hand with virtually anything, again because of the size of the pot.


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95% of the time this is a huge hand trying to get value rather than some random bluff or 1 pair type hand trying to fold a better hand. I doubt he expects anyone to fold

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Or he has 2 pair, in which case you have 6 outs. Or he has a pair of sevens and is hoping someone will fold a pair of eights, or...



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not saying its impossible, but pretty unlikely but doesn't really matter either way since jeff should probably be calling the turn to make a decision on the river.

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No reason to give anyone credit for a monster hand here.

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dude, this is live. I doubt jeff expects to be ahead on the turn like ever.

Re: Large Pot With Aces
 

Best case scenario: your hand is second best. More likely, you come in third. Fold the turn.