Re: annoying river spot 25/50
 

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This is an easy fold, no?

You can beat KJ and that's it.

Are you thinking of raising the river? If so, how do you play sets on the turn?

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So when he bets the flop he must have at least two pair?

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No, but if he didn't have 2 pair and had AT or AQ, we are losing. Any other Ax hand and we chop. We also don't beat AK.

fold>raise>call.

Re: annoying river spot 25/50
 

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fwiw I think he rarely has a ten here

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So, it's likely a boat or air? How often does he throw that bet out with an AK/AJ type hand as a blocker bet?

Re: annoying river spot 25/50
 

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It really depends on how often you think Ahhh Snapp will bluff in that spot.

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Great post.

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LOL

Re: annoying river spot 25/50
 

fold

Re: annoying river spot 25/50
 

idk, his bet size on the river sorta looks like he might be trying to get you to raise, but it could be a blocking bet. this is gross, i guess i'd call but i can't ever fold

Re: annoying river spot 25/50
 

fold

Re: annoying river spot 25/50
 

River seems like a fold. Way too many hands you're behind.

I'm actually very interested in your intended turn/river line if they had both bricked.

Were you calling down/betting if checked to?

Re: annoying river spot 25/50
 

dunno

Re: annoying river spot 25/50
 

I'll take a stab at his range..

boat - flop makes sense. but turn seems unlikely he'd play it like this. he knows its hard for you to rep a T, and your range is Ax/two pair most of the time, KQ/KT sometimes and random float rarely. so a bet makes most sense with a set here, especially since now you can have a few more two pairs. river bet sizing? he can do this for value since he knows you have at least Ax, and perhaps induce a heroic bluff raise. but still, he is 25/20 and tough and big pairs are hard to get. 25%

AK/AQ - pretty consistent line for those hands. 25%

Random Q - depends a lot on how he plays in these 3 way pots after a late position raise. I'd guess 15%

Ax - river bet doesn't really make sense. unless he is leveling us and figures 650 is as good as 900 for getting us off of an A or KJ. 10%

Bluff - 25%

Maybe my numbers are way off, but I think I call this.

Re: annoying river spot 25/50
 

I think he can play a ten like this for sure

I would read his soul and lean towards folding

also, consider betting turn pls