Re: KTs is a lot like JTs
 

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When it gets to river it is quite unlikely anyone has made the backdoor straight. More often than not you're against busted FDs or pairs. I don't think many, even quite aggressive, villains would bluff a busted FD 3-way here because the Hero showed quite much strength OOP on the flop and led the turn into two players. For the same reason I don't fear a raise from a better TP on the river.

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What are your thoughts on the BTN's reaction if he had a weaker top pair and was checked to? A good portion of the time, an aggressive player here would bet.

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I agree he would bet a weaker TP quite often - and also call our river bet with the same holding as he decided to call the turn, which IMO would be the spot you commit to showdown on a blank river with a TP in BTN's pants here.

However, Hero's flop play IMO signals that much strength that the BTN might sometimes be content with a free showdown as well. Granted, if we believe that then the BTN can also fold a few hands he could bet with if checked to.

I was thinking more about how do we get the most bets from the loose guy in the middle, the one we most likely beat? After our lead bet or overcalling BTN and us? My guess was our lead bet.