Re: 50NL TP2K w/ gutshot facing min-raise from 18/15/4 reg
 

I tend to give one line answers from 3k+ posters more credit than large paragraphs from -100 posters. Yeah, there's no explanation, but I'll think about it and usually come up with multiple logical reasons for the method. Gets me out of the box foa moment.

Re: 50NL TP2K w/ gutshot facing min-raise from 18/15/4 reg
 

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That river card sure does suck, but your play in the hand seems fine to me.

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Thanks nick, comments on leading the turn? What about crying call on the river for 80% of a buy-in? This hand was discussed w/ a friend of mine who berated my river call.

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My thinking was that, given Button's aggressive stats, his raise could easily be coming from a pair + draw type hand (JT/QJ) that hopes to freeze up the action and it's worth seeing what he wants to do on the turn. However, I will admit that his tightness cuts into the JT possibility somewhat, and sets and KJ are a concern. Meanwhile, though, it does appear, superficially anyway, that you're getting a good price.

The turn card is possibly really good for you and possibly really bad. Upon reflection, I'm not sure what I think of the turn lead. You've got a strong hand, but the board is a nightmare.

Anyway, given the size of the pot on the river, I would find it hard to fold trips, although it is very hard to see what you're beating besides, like, a stubborn-as-hell T9. You are still chopping with KQ, but that's about the best you can hope for, and it's not very many combos.

And I'll add that after his smug flop min-raise, Button really deserved to turn a J or K instead of the case Q.

Re: 50NL TP2K w/ gutshot facing min-raise from 18/15/4 reg
 

Flop is an easy fold cuz you are oop, got raised, and someone cold called, you are never good there. Ever. In fact, this hand becomes interesting if it is a hu pot imo.