Re: Two pair on drawy board
 

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folding two pair on the river is now "close" vs opponents with 34% PFR and AF 4.03...i see.



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Dunno why I didn't read his stats properly, only took in that he was loose and not the bet or fold mentality. Easy river call then as he could have a whole bunch on raggy stuff. Still don't expect to win a huge amount though as the board is so nasty for our hand but easily +EV.

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There is some serious flaws in the rationale of some of the things said in this thread.

A one liner like "just dont start folding two pairz" and a quote such as

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folding two pair on the river is now "close" vs opponents with 34% PFR and AF 4.03...i see.


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are sooo one dimensional.

You guys need to play more than just your cards and start thinking about ranges.


First of all the stats are over 114 hands. Not at all significant to use it as a read

Second of all, just because he is LAGGy doesnt mean he is bad. Thats gotta be the misperception of this century.


The fact remains that turn and river are REALLY bad cards for hero and his eq even vs a LAGs range is far from great.

I havent done the math and I dont claim to know that fold > call as I believe its close. But stating that this is an easy call makes me think that those of you who thinks that needs to do a better job hand reading.

Hero is mostly beating silly played hands such as A8 and 54. Any hand that makes sense is beating Heros hand except KJ and AJ and those needs to be discounted given preflop.


FWIW. My wtsd is getting close to 40 and I have folded trips at least 5 times within the last week. Good folds I would never have made had I followed rules such as "Never fold trips"

Re: Two pair on drawy board
 

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Hero is mostly beating silly played hands such as A8 and 54. Any hand that makes sense is beating Heros hand except KJ and AJ and those needs to be discounted given preflop.



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Jx suited (e.g. J3) or not has to be well within this guy's range, and he has to have this hand more than 12% of the time.

that is enough to make this a call.

in the SB the conception of "playable hands" changes drastically, especially against very loose players. but im sure you knew that already.

Re: Two pair on drawy board
 

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in the SB the conception of "playable hands" changes drastically

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Re: Two pair on drawy board
 

Oink everyhing you say is very correct but with the aggression he has shown, even over so few hands, he will have a retarded hand enough for an EV call. Any legit hands have us in terrible shape of course. As I said though I still expect to lose a lot more than I win, but 1:7 should be fine.

Re: Two pair on drawy board
 

Kit

Ya he can of course also have weakish Jxs. But that also means that there is like a billion possible flush hands, straight hands and better two pair hands in his range. J5s- is 12 hands.. 12!

This is a really bad board for Hero given the action even if we knew he was an overaggro retard. Now add the probability that he is actually good postflop and it gets close.

Making a call here is just fine. But if I make it, its a crying call

Re: Two pair on drawy board
 

wp next hand please

toss a 3c on that river
then definitely call it down

but now a whole slew of two pair hands
the small blind may have completed with
now have you beat

and if he didnt make two pair
theres a chance those same hands
have now made a straight

8hXh also made a flush on the turn
that i could see him playing this aggressively with

the only two hands you possibly beat in his range
are KJ and AJ

if you know hed raise them pf in this situation
then you can discount them heavily

Re: Two pair on drawy board
 

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I don't see why we have to give action above and beyond that already shown. That turn card is pretty sucky to start going for additional bets on. River is pretty close as it is even debatable whether we are good 1:7 but a call is marginally better than a fold I expect.

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why should we cap the flop here as some suggest?

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i don't claim to be an expert hu player, but if you've seen thebryce's videos i think you'll agree that he normally gives more action than this with his two-pair+ hands.

Re: Two pair on drawy board
 

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I don't see why we have to give action above and beyond that already shown. That turn card is pretty sucky to start going for additional bets on. River is pretty close as it is even debatable whether we are good 1:7 but a call is marginally better than a fold I expect.

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why should we cap the flop here as some suggest?

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i don't claim to be an expert hu player, but if you've seen thebryce's videos i think you'll agree that he normally gives more action than this with his two-pair+ hands.

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Not when every damn straight, flush and high pair combo just got there and you have bottom 2 I bet he doesn't.

And no I haven't seen the vid? Is it a free one? If so does anybody have a link? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Two pair on drawy board
 

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I don't see why we have to give action above and beyond that already shown. That turn card is pretty sucky to start going for additional bets on. River is pretty close as it is even debatable whether we are good 1:7 but a call is marginally better than a fold I expect.

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why should we cap the flop here as some suggest?

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i don't claim to be an expert hu player, but if you've seen thebryce's videos i think you'll agree that he normally gives more action than this with his two-pair+ hands.

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Not when every damn straight, flush and high pair combo just got there and you have bottom 2 I bet he doesn't.

And no I haven't seen the vid? Is it a free one? If so does anybody have a link? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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the videos i was talking about are from stoxpoker.com.
i understand that the turn card is pretty scary, but this is hu we are talking about, where even middle pair is often the nuts.

Re: Two pair on drawy board
 

Cap the flop and its not close.
Most people will lead anything they were betting the flop with into you on the turn unless it was a draw, if a heart doesnt complete, because they put you on a draw. You have a large equity edge since his hand is weighted towards good draws and pairs of jacks with a good kicker.
You do this also to balance the times you cap the flop with a good draw planning to take a free card on the turn.

Turn is a call as played since every semibluffing hand just got there and many jack hands haev solid redraws to a better hand.

River is a call as played since many people will still fire their Jx on the river which is enough to comepensate for your pot odds.

Heres one of my favorite hands against 10/20 regular playtight, very similar to yours to show you my point.
Note, I dont advocate giving this much turn action without a read.
Playtight has a TAGish style and I suspect is the winner in the games.

POKERSTARS GAME #11209843139: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($10/$20) - 2007/07/29 - 23:08:26 (ET)
Table 'Dido IV' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Heisenb3rg ($399.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Nicodemus75 ($801.50 in chips)
Seat 4: chillbilly14 ($830.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Reshef ($1132.50 in chips)
Seat 6: playtight14 ($294 in chips)
playtight14: posts small blind $5
Heisenb3rg: posts big blind $10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Heisenb3rg [6c 4d]
Nicodemus75: folds
chillbilly14: calls $10
Reshef: calls $10
playtight14: calls $5
Heisenb3rg: checks
*** FLOP *** [4s 6s Jd]
playtight14: bets $10
Heisenb3rg: raises $10 to $20
chillbilly14: folds
Reshef: folds
playtight14: raises $10 to $30
Heisenb3rg: raises $10 to $40
Betting is capped
playtight14: calls $10
*** TURN *** [4s 6s Jd] [2d]
playtight14: bets $20
Heisenb3rg: raises $20 to $40
playtight14: raises $20 to $60
Heisenb3rg: raises $20 to $80
Betting is capped
playtight14: calls $20
*** RIVER *** [4s 6s Jd 2d] [2c]
playtight14: bets $20
kenyeung28 leaves the table
Heisenb3rg said, "sop gay"
Heisenb3rg: calls $20
*** SHOW DOWN ***
playtight14: shows [Ah Jh] (two pair, Jacks and Deuces)
Heisenb3rg: mucks hand
playtight14 collected $318 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $320 | Rake $2
Board [4s 6s Jd 2d 2c]
Seat 1: Heisenb3rg (big blind) mucked [6c 4d]
Seat 3: Nicodemus75 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: chillbilly14 folded on the Flop
Seat 5: Reshef (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: playtight14 (small blind) showed [Ah Jh] and won ($318) with two pair, Jacks and Deuces