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-   -   Who is a better hitter? (Poll) (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=223363)

Neuge 09-25-2007 10:46 AM

Re: Who is a better hitter? (Poll)
 
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But doesn't Ichiro have some influence on the hitters after him? Aside from the obvious benefit of stealing a base, doesn't the threat of stealing a base have a positive impact on the current hitter? And, how does this show up in a metric?

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Mostly, no it doesn't. It shows up in the subsequent hitter's walk rate if anywhere. The only significant influence Ichiro has over hitters after him is that they are, on average, in better run producing states (i.e. more runners on, less outs). The effect of being a better baserunner is mostly insignificant.

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Also, if Ichiro runs on the pitch and the SS or 2B has to cover does this increase the chances of the hitter getting a hit on a ball in play because of the absence of the fielder from the optimal fielding position? If so, what metric show this?

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The metric to show that would be ground ball percentage. On average, batters with higher ground ball percentage would do better in that situation. However, GIDP would likely wipe away all that and more, because it's so much more likely and so much more devastating.

I don't have time to cover all the relevant methods and stats, but if you're really interested (and you seem to be), pick up THE BOOK. It addresses some of the specific situations you raised and is, overall, fantastic.

Spy Dog 09-25-2007 10:50 AM

Re: Who is a better hitter? (Poll)
 
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Also, because he singled and is a baserunning threat, some could argue that the next hitter might see better pitches to hit so his HR became more likely because of an Ichiro single.

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All your other points have been addressed, so I'll just tackle this one. Some could say that, but the complete opposite is true. It's more beneficial to have a more patient hitter behind. DUCY?

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I'm missing it.....

I'm sure it's always beneficial to have a patient hitter at the plate, regardless of the situation, but that's not my question.

My question is whether or not a batter will see better pitches with Ichiro on base, rather than Dunn.

And, has any research been done on whether or not a fast baserunner can interrupt a pitcher's rhythm and make him a less effective pitcher? Is it possible to measure this?

I'm not taking a side, I'm just asking these questions because I don't know a lot on this subject.

Another question, somewhat related. When they say a guy has a hitter's count (3-1, 2-0) a hitter should have a higher batting average than when the count is 1-2, 0-2, etc..... How much of this difference is attributed to the fact that a 3-1 count means he is more likely to walk and less likely to K and how much is it attributed to the fact that he can expect a more predictable range of pitches (i.e fastballs in the strike zone) which increases his chances of making solid contact?

Teh1337zor 09-25-2007 10:50 AM

Re: Who is a better hitter? (Poll)
 
I would much rather have Ichiro on my team


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