Re: College Football Rank \'em --- Week 8
 

UATrewqaz....that is highly debatable considering the SEC has only finished the highest conference in the regular season once in the last 7 years on sagarin

Re: College Football Rank \'em --- Week 8
 

One of the major difficulties as well, is that there are also different ways of measuring the "best" conference too. Differnet people have different criteria.

Is having 2-3 powerhouses and 8 punching bags better than having 4-5 very solid teams and 4 more mediocre ones?

That, combined with people's various biases, are why these debates go on so endlessly.

Re: College Football Rank \'em --- Week 8
 

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One of the major difficulties as well, is that there are also different ways of measuring the "best" conference too. Differnet people have different criteria.

Is having 2-3 powerhouses and 8 punching bags better than having 4-5 very solid teams and 4 more mediocre ones?

That, combined with people's various biases, are why these debates go on so endlessly.

[/ QUOTE ]

It might help the SEC's case if they ever learned how to travel(especially to the west side of the Mississippi) and play some tougher OOC games.(Kudos to Tenn this year)

b

Re: College Football Rank \'em --- Week 8
 

my blog tomorrow is going to be on the BigEast being #1 in terms of conferences...shocked me, but the numbers could bear it out

Re: College Football Rank \'em --- Week 8
 

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my blog tomorrow is going to be on the BigEast being #1 in terms of conferences...shocked me, but the numbers could bear it out

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Sagarin has them at two I believe. I think a big part of it might be having 8 teams.

Re: College Football Rank \'em --- Week 8
 

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Updated undefeated odds, according to Sagarin's predictor:

Ohio State: 46.4%
Kansas: 23.3%
Hawaii: 13.5%
Boston College: 11.9%
Arizona State: 11.1%

And for the one-loss teams not to lose again:
South Florida: 42.1%
Oregon: 35.1%
LSU: 29.3%
Oklahoma: 27.0%

I know, I should run the numbers on WVU and VT so that this covers the entire top ten. Maybe I will, but that would require adding to the spreadsheet rather than just updating it, so I also might not.

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USC please?

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According to Sagarin's predictor ratings, USC has a 0.16% chance of winning out. Part of me wanted to ignore this question, and say "I only rate teams in the BCS Top Ten" or something, but the karma of dismissing USC this week, as a Duck fan, was something I wanted to avoid.

The grain of salt on this number is that according to Sagarin USC should be an 18 point dog to Oregon this week, giving them a 10% win chance. The actual opening line was 2.5, so either the sports books are giving USC WAY more credit than they should, or else Sagarin is vastly underrating them (probably a little of both, imo), so their true odds of winning out are probably better than the 0.16% my spreadsheet spits out.

Re: College Football Rank \'em --- Week 8
 

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6 of the 8 opponents are fixed year after year, so there isn't that much variance.

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Uh, what? This can hugely affect things.

Re: College Football Rank \'em --- Week 8
 

yeah...it's not like missing Ohio State helped out Wisconsin last year

Re: College Football Rank \'em --- Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Updated undefeated odds, according to Sagarin's predictor:

Ohio State: 46.4%
Kansas: 23.3%
Hawaii: 13.5%
Boston College: 11.9%
Arizona State: 11.1%

And for the one-loss teams not to lose again:
South Florida: 42.1%
Oregon: 35.1%
LSU: 29.3%
Oklahoma: 27.0%

I know, I should run the numbers on WVU and VT so that this covers the entire top ten. Maybe I will, but that would require adding to the spreadsheet rather than just updating it, so I also might not.

[/ QUOTE ]
USC please?

[/ QUOTE ]
According to Sagarin's predictor ratings, USC has a 0.16% chance of winning out. Part of me wanted to ignore this question, and say "I only rate teams in the BCS Top Ten" or something, but the karma of dismissing USC this week, as a Duck fan, was something I wanted to avoid.

The grain of salt on this number is that according to Sagarin USC should be an 18 point dog to Oregon this week, giving them a 10% win chance. The actual opening line was 2.5, so either the sports books are giving USC WAY more credit than they should, or else Sagarin is vastly underrating them (probably a little of both, imo), so their true odds of winning out are probably better than the 0.16% my spreadsheet spits out.

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I'm pretty sure Sagarin is vastly underrating them. If my theory is right and USC's mid season hiccup was injury related, Sagarin would have no choice. The system probably has no way of accounting for low scoring wins and losses with an injury depleted team that will later be at full strength.

Re: College Football Rank \'em --- Week 8
 

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my blog tomorrow is going to be on the BigEast being #1 in terms of conferences...shocked me, but the numbers could bear it out

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apologies if you've done it multiple times elsewhere, but could you post a link please?