Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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What does the A in A-Rod stand for?

April.

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HAHAHA

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

Very much appreciate the effort. Agree on unquestionably best offense in baseball. But am I insane for thinking that the Sox rotation is better considering a couple things: Hughes wasn't that great before his injury, Chamberlain doesn't really have a reliable third pitch and Buchholz is the 2nd highest rated right handed prospect behind Homer Bailey (Chamberlain is third). I disagree that using Hughes and Joba as starters in the DS would increase their chances of winning given that they wouldn't have even entered the playoff picture yet.

Laffey? Aaron Laffey? Damn I'm impressed with how quickly he made it to the show considering when he played HS ball in MD he was topping out at about 88. Kid was kind of a douche from what I hear, but props for making the post season roster. Kyle, you should be a bit more of a homer more often [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Again, I thank you for that post, but I have to get up in like 4 hours to tailgate, so I'll talk to you cats on sunday probably (gonna be a looonnnggg day of drinkin).

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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kyleb you completely ignore bullpen.

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That doesn't matter, its 1950.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

I'm pretty sure Joba and Hughes are/were both rated above Bucholz by most. Also, Joba has a + 3 and 4 pitch, just since he's in relief he only needs to use his 2 best.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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kyleb you completely ignore bullpen.

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As most people should. Bullpens are worth very little unless they are lights-out, which admittedly the Indians' is. Then again, the Indians ruin it by having a dedicated closer in Borowski, who has been terrible, so you don't get a lot of points there. Remember that the Red Sox have a shutdown bullpen and the Yankees have a decent one.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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I'm pretty sure Joba and Hughes are/were both rated above Bucholz by most. Also, Joba has a + 3 and 4 pitch, just since he's in relief he only needs to use his 2 best.

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At the beginning of the season, yes, but I rate Buchholz higher than Chamberlain and at least Hughes' equivalent.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

I would also like to add that I completely owned both Ray and shaun [censored] deeb in prop betting tonight.

They are such fish

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

Even/odd foul balls?
Runs per inning (you draft innings)?
Does the ump throw it back on the mound or miss?

which ones? GoT and i are always looking for new bets

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

pitches thrown per inning, snake order for who sets the o/u for the inning.

I had a 2 point lead going into the 9th [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

oooooh, I like that one.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

i was looking for pictures for the imo thread in b4l, but man, i think all i would have to do is throw a big fat imo on this picture without anything else.

http://espn-i.starwave.com/media/app...8cc4705b93.jpg

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

lolol

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

hahaha I have a folder specifically for hilarious pictures I see posted on 2p2. That one just earned itself a spot

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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Laffey? Aaron Laffey? Damn I'm impressed with how quickly he made it to the show considering when he played HS ball in MD he was topping out at about 88. Kid was kind of a douche from what I hear, but props for making the post season roster. Kyle, you should be a bit more of a homer more often [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Laffey gets it into the low 90's from what I've seen of him, and he's got good mechanics. His pitches are decent and he'll make a fine league-average starter.

Cleveland's biggest strength is their front office and management team. They cut bait on Jason Stanford, Andrew Brown, and Jeremy Guthrie when they thought none of them could compete at a high enough level. They aren't afraid to make tough decisions fast and get young kids in there ASAP. Cleveland's farm system is simply too good to allow good players to pile up and do nothing to help the big league team win (see also: Dodgers, Devil Rays) and Shapiro/Antonetti/Wedge know this.

Obviously Guthrie turned in quite a fine year, but Brown/Stanford are nothing special. Cutting Boras clients has to be liberating, too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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I had a 2 point lead going into the 9th [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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zzzzzz

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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On the other hand, they can only start Wang twice as a potential ace (today's antics not withstanding, Andy is not an ace).

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yeah cuz there is a huge difference (any?) between him and pettite.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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On the other hand, they can only start Wang twice as a potential ace (today's antics not withstanding, Andy is not an ace).

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yeah cuz there is a huge difference (any?) between him and pettite.

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Yes, there's a significant difference between them. Wang's SNLVAR is almost a full point better than Pettitte's. Furthermore, Wang depresses SLG allowed (specifically home runs) at a much better rate. I do not believe that Wang's xFIP accurately predicts his true ERA. The ability to generate consistant groundball outs is very valuable, even if it is in front of a terrible defense.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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Yes, there's a significant difference between them.

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there is a significant difference between sabathia and wang. there is a significant difference between wang and jon lester. the difference between wang and pettite isnt significant.

hes probably the better pitcher at this point, but i dont think they are in different categories when it comes to the common labels starting pitchers get.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

I disagree, for reasons I have already pointed out.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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Hughes suffered a random freak injury that sidelined him for a significant amount of time; that was hardly predictable.

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Aside from his parents, I'm probably the biggest Hughes fan on the planet. I think he's going to be an unquestioned ace and an absolute superstar. That being said, he's not there yet. Much like 2001 Sabathia, 2007 Hughes needs time to grow, so I don't think you can give him credit as a 9 win (WARP) starter when evaluating this Yankee team.

Also, you can't really do the Joba-as-a-starter thing...the guy isn't even allowed to pitch on back-to-back days. Plus, if you counted him as a starter, you'd have to count Papelbon as one, too. However, even if you want to count Joba as a starter, that ignores things like 1) he's a rookie, 2) he wouldn't/couldn't be this dominant as a starter, and 3) without him, the Yankees would have a terrible, terrible bullpen. Especially when you consider that Clemens and Joba would be six inning guys, you have to factor in how many crappy innings that bullpen would log, how much more Rivera would have to pitch (making him less effective due to a higher workload), and how much more likely a Joba injury would be.

I get your argument, but I think you're leaving out a lot of big factors. You haven't even discussed how old the Yankee team is, how absolutely terrible their defense is (which hurts Wang a lot), and how little pitching depth they have.

The Sawx, on the other hand, have excellent depth and a great, great bullpen...and that's with Gagne struggling. They have one of the deepest, most versatile benches/platoon guys in the game, their lineup is excellent, and their starters are very good. The Indians have the best 1-2 punch in the game, maybe the best group of starters in the league, an equally good lineup, an extremely underrated bullpen that includes the most underrated player in all of baseball (Betancourt), and the best quality depth in the league. I really think you can make the argument for any of these three teams being the best, but factoring in every single thing, I give the Red Sox a slight, slight edge.

One thing that I love, though (I'm talking to you, Guy With "Pick Of Destiny" avatar), is that these are three of the four biggest SABR-focused teams in baseball (the fourth obviously being Oakland). I hate the Yankees, but I respect the way they evaluate players, and the other three teams are my three favorites. They are probably the four smartest, most successful franchises in the game, and that is because of their statistical evaluation. This game IS about numbers, and this "that's why they play the games" thing is dumb because we can freaking predict who will win all those games that end up being played on the field. It still amazes me that people scoff at sabermetrics after the prolonged success it has had, and anyone who isn't using these "new, crazy numbers" is simply not going to be as successful at predicting baseball outcomes.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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the difference between wang and pettite isnt significant.

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Is this a joke?

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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kyleb you completely ignore bullpen.

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As most people should. Bullpens are worth very little unless they are lights-out, which admittedly the Indians' is. Then again, the Indians ruin it by having a dedicated closer in Borowski, who has been terrible, so you don't get a lot of points there. Remember that the Red Sox have a shutdown bullpen and the Yankees have a decent one.

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You can't put Joba in the Rotation AND claim that the Yankees have a decent pen. Even with Joba in the pen the difference between the Yankees and tribe pens is significant.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
kyleb you completely ignore bullpen.

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As most people should. Bullpens are worth very little unless they are lights-out, which admittedly the Indians' is. Then again, the Indians ruin it by having a dedicated closer in Borowski, who has been terrible, so you don't get a lot of points there. Remember that the Red Sox have a shutdown bullpen and the Yankees have a decent one.

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You can't put Joba in the Rotation AND claim that the Yankees have a decent pen. Even with Joba in the pen the difference between the Yankees and tribe pens is significant.

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kyleb's whole point is that in a 5 game series, a bullpen really isn't of huge import. if your starters can give you 7 innings, you just need 3-4 guys. so yeah, if the yankees had edwar, vizcaino, rivera, and say, uh, farnsworth - it's not *that* much worse than what the indians would be throwing out there.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
kyleb you completely ignore bullpen.

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As most people should. Bullpens are worth very little unless they are lights-out, which admittedly the Indians' is. Then again, the Indians ruin it by having a dedicated closer in Borowski, who has been terrible, so you don't get a lot of points there. Remember that the Red Sox have a shutdown bullpen and the Yankees have a decent one.

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You can't put Joba in the Rotation AND claim that the Yankees have a decent pen. Even with Joba in the pen the difference between the Yankees and tribe pens is significant.

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kyleb's whole point is that in a 5 game series, a bullpen really isn't of huge import. if your starters can give you 7 innings, you just need 3-4 guys. so yeah, if the yankees had edwar, vizcaino, rivera, and say, uh, farnsworth - it's not *that* much worse than what the indians would be throwing out there.

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Actually Kyle's points were about the Yankees being the better 162 game team. With Chamberlain in the pen the Indians' pen is "somewhat" better than the Yankee, but the Rotation is now definitely in the Tribe's favor. With Chamberlain in the rotation the Rotations are close with a possible Yankees nod, but the Bullpens are now very much in the Tribe's favor. And no, the Yankees "edwar, vizcaino, rivera, and say, uh, farnsworth" is way worse that Rafael, Rafael, Lewis, Fultz and Borowski. A full year of Perez and Bentencourt pitching would be in the 150-180 inning range, that the equivalent of a starter, considering they had ~1.6 ERA combined its foolish to discount them.

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kyleb's whole point is that in a 5 game series, a bullpen really isn't of huge import.

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I'm pretty sure Kyle would disagree here as well. In a playoff series there are far more off days allowing the top performers in the pen to pitch in a far higher % of the games. Perez has already pitched in 4 of the Indians 20 innings, Bentencourt 1, Lewis 1. Raf and Raf could easily end up with 20% of the Indians' innings pitched. If Byrd starts game 4 that would be > the percentage of Innings pitched by Carmona in a 5 game series.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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i just think we are putting too much emphasis on numbers and stats and stuff, cmon baseball is different than poker people

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No.

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Yeah I can show you some numbers that say that this is wrong.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

"anytime you're trying to make statistics tell you who's gonna win the game, that's a bunch of geeks trying to play video games."

http://i.a.cnn.net/si/2005/writers/r...morgan_all.jpg

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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I want to kill myself for not going to this game. But WOWOWOWOWOW, Instant Effing Classic.

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yep, best game i've ever been to, obviously...i woke up an hour or so ago, and no one was here, so i didn't realize right away that i literally have no voice. none. and didn't know it until i had to answer the phone, and nothing came out..

the walk back to the car, we were floating, hell, the whole city of cleveland was floating. everyone in pinstripes was in shock.

i just honestly can't believe my luck in picking THIS game as the one playoff game i was going to go to, mostly because it was a friday..

funny thing is, i'm normally better at describing these types of scenes, and i'm still a little tongue-tied. a couple friends called last night, and i really couldn't begin to tell them how exciting everything was...

for about an hour through the extra innings, all i did was chew on the towel they gave us, scream and yell, hold the towel on the top of my head and hope, chew on the towel, etc..

wow. tribe seems to be on a mission right now...rafy perez is [censored] cold-blooded..

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

Saw a shirt today at the mall, "In Joba we trust" LOL LOL [censored] classic, all the hype and he blows it for them LOL LOL

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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i just think we are putting too much emphasis on numbers and stats and stuff, cmon baseball is different than poker people

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No.

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Yeah I can show you some numbers that say that this is wrong.

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alright im not saying numbers dont have a lot to do with baseball, probably more than any other sport, heck i love talking about numbers, but its still a sport, and not just some gambling numbers game

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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One thing that I love, though (I'm talking to you, Guy With "Pick Of Destiny" avatar), is that these are three of the four biggest SABR-focused teams in baseball (the fourth obviously being Oakland). I hate the Yankees, but I respect the way they evaluate players, and the other three teams are my three favorites. They are probably the four smartest, most successful franchises in the game, and that is because of their statistical evaluation. This game IS about numbers, and this "that's why they play the games" thing is dumb because we can freaking predict who will win all those games that end up being played on the field. It still amazes me that people scoff at sabermetrics after the prolonged success it has had, and anyone who isn't using these "new, crazy numbers" is simply not going to be as successful at predicting baseball outcomes.

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i agree that we can predict the games, i never said we couldn't, but i think playing the game is way more important, but thats pretty obvious, i really don't wanna argue that numbers aren't important, because i agree that they are, i just think sometimes people put too much into it.



oh and awesome u know what movie my avatar is from [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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Saw a shirt today at the mall, "In Joba we trust" LOL LOL [censored] classic, all the hype and he blows it for them LOL LOL

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i hardly think any yankee fan is holding chamberlain or viz for that matter responsible for the game 2 loss... i sure as hell am not

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

posada is most accountable really.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

im really depressed but i certainly have not lost hope

one game at a time...

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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Saw a shirt today at the mall, "In Joba we trust" LOL LOL [censored] classic, all the hype and he blows it for them LOL LOL

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i hardly think any yankee fan is holding chamberlain or viz for that matter responsible for the game 2 loss... i sure as hell am not

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Thats right it was all because of this
http://www.macmonkies.com/Special/bug/bug_off.jpg

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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posada is most accountable really.

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I don't think that you can hold anyone accountable. If the wind is blowing out to right, Johnny Peralta likely has a hr off of pettite and there is an entirely different game. Both teams caught a few breaks, but the Tribe caught a few bigger breaks.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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Nine innings...what the heck?!?

Jack Morris goes 12 here at least.

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[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] Yeah, though he wasn't a HOFer or nothing... [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Great game, first chance I've had to post. I don't think Arod choked, Fausto was just sick, but 4 for last 48...ugh.

Also easy to say after the fact, but I did say while watching that I thought Mo had to go another inning. Pretty damn close to an elimination game, IMO. Joba was clearly bugged by the bugs and it's also his first postseason, but I wonder if Torre thought about trying to get another inning out of him, as well.

I've always thought you should go down with your best guys in the playoffs, but what do I know. Do agree that if the Yanks had scored in the 11th Mo would've gone back out.

Clev-Rockies WSOB ftw.

Re: *** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)
 

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the difference between wang and pettite isnt significant.

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Is this a joke?

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um, no because it isnt.

QERA have them as nearly identical going forward.