Re: LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)
 

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One thing we need to put the math geniuses on is putting together some numbers on Sauron's knowledge of Frodo's identity. IE: how confident can they be of his identity? 20%? 80%? I have no idea, and can't figure it out. Somebody should, though.

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In case it got missed before. Hopefully, somebody will think I'm quoting someone else here, and actually read the post.

Re: LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)
 

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Is your Herbie "read" THAT strong, that it is able to explain the way Nich is acting in this game?

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Is your nich read that strong that it explains the way herbie is acting this game? Enough to take a 50% shot at doing the wolves a huge favour?

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YES.

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lol

Re: LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)
 

leaving us alive:

pro: they either waste block on me (so can't have 2 shots at seer in night: block and kill) or they leave me unblocked and i have a 1/x chance of protecting same person they try to kill...so win-win

con: herbie stays alive; could be powerful wolf knowing he'll live a long time now that he's claimed aragorn (same argument u could make for me being wolf claiming aragorn)


they have to eat me at some point, at which point we insta-lynch herbie the next day...if we've killed roleblocker by then, they have 50% shot at missing me that night...another win for village

if they don't ever eat me, then herbie/i vote each other in final round and other player is confirmed villager and gets to choose between us ftw


so while i want herbie lynched TODAY, i understand why we aren't going to

Re: LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)
 

nich,

why do you only post when your head's on the line?

Re: LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)
 

i've already explained; i'm swamped at work and home; i was away from home from 3/29 until 4/16...i've had a test this week, taxes due, and a ton of work...yes, i've played turbos, but that is easier to just pick up and do than read 2000 posts to catch up in a game where i'm 'confirmed'...i'll read everything when we lynch more wolves (when i'm MUCH MUCH better than before we have info), and i'll still be around to contribute then, when it's needed more

Re: LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)
 

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nich,

why do you only post when your head's on the line?

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my head isn't on the line

Re: LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)
 

oh yeah, i wasn't around to protect anyone last night; sorry about that, as it cost us a 1/x shot at me protecting whom they targetted...i'll be sure to pm my protect in advance in future nights so that doesn't happen again

Re: LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)
 

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One thing we need to put the math geniuses on is putting together some numbers on Sauron's knowledge of Frodo's identity. IE: how confident can they be of his identity? 20%? 80%? I have no idea, and can't figure it out. Somebody should, though.

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In case it got missed before. Hopefully, somebody will think I'm quoting someone else here, and actually read the post.

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Do you have any idea how complicated this is? I've thought about it a few times and thrown it right out. However, given the fact that they're getting 2 names a night, and there are some role claims sitting around, I'd say they're between "somewhat close" and "pretty close". There's a lot of info for them.

Re: LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)
 

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i've already explained; i'm swamped at work and home; i was away from home from 3/29 until 4/16...i've had a test this week, taxes due, and a ton of work...yes, i've played turbos, but that is easier to just pick up and do than read 2000 posts to catch up in a game where i'm 'confirmed'...i'll read everything when we lynch more wolves (when i'm MUCH MUCH better than before we have info), and i'll still be around to contribute then, when it's needed more

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Yet again, "You're Swamped" but can instantly reply to a post about you. This was also true d1 and d2.

Re: LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)
 

nich,

that's a pretty good explanation. If you were in our shoes, and you saw someone play the way that you have, what would your read on them be? and how long would you go before lynching him?