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-   -   Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=529488)

gehrig 11-03-2007 08:12 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
cenizo plays the same as all the old bots, never adjusts and gives me all the action i want, which most humans dont (but the old bots always did). he doesnt have obvious timing tells like the old bots.

i don't have any evidence either way beyond that

pokergirl z and grego played the same as each other but don't play like the old bots. there is one other account they play the same as.

MicroBob 11-03-2007 08:17 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
MicroBob: The reason for Mike is because, as they said before, they don't want the public knowing how they detect cheaters. So basically by having a middle man they're only letting one person (Mike) know how they detect cheaters with him giving his opinion on the evidence.

And everybody, don't forget that they ended up saying that the 3 or 4 accused players in the giant thread about 1/2 NL FR bots were innocent EVEN THOUGH their stats were extremely similar, and there was much more evidence than what we have been presented with here in this case so far.

[/ QUOTE ]



yeah, I get that they can give it all to Mike and then Mike can say, "I approved of this message. It all makes sense to me."


But as for the stuff they want to make public....FT should be doing that themselves. Mike shouldn't have to ask FT if he can say this or that...and then ask sillysal if it's okay for him to say this or that.

Sillysaw has already given cart-blanche approval for FT to say ANYTHING about this. She is begging them to.
FT should be able to speak for themselves and could just as easily have posted those stats themselves.

In the end I guess it works out the same. I guess their reluctance to do speak for themselves just annoys me more than anything else.


Would Stars go to Mike Haven and say, "Hey Mike, tell 2+2 we said it was okay to give these stats."
I think Stars would speak for themselves if they were involved in a remotely similar issue.

gehrig 11-03-2007 08:25 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
cenizo plays the same as all the old bots, never adjusts and gives me all the action i want, which most humans dont (but the old bots always did). he doesnt have obvious timing tells like the old bots.

i don't have any evidence either way beyond that

pokergirl z and grego played the same as each other but don't play like the old bots. there is one other account they play the same as.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, i guess its safe for me to say that beatme1 is the other account that plays exactly like poker girl z and grego

gehrig 11-03-2007 08:35 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
does anyone wanna link to the big beatme1 thread

i bet beatme1 posts like pokergirl z too

what could it all mean oh my god i just dont know

sillysal 11-03-2007 08:36 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
cenizo plays the same as all the old bots, never adjusts and gives me all the action i want, which most humans dont (but the old bots always did). he doesnt have obvious timing tells like the old bots.

i don't have any evidence either way beyond that

pokergirl z and grego played the same as each other but don't play like the old bots. there is one other account they play the same as.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh please gehrig, You know damn well I'm not a bot. So does your pal the Complainer. But I bet you like that I'm not on the site so you can monopolize it. I wouldn't be surprised if you're part of this whole witch hunt.

From what I understand about Bots.. they'll play anybody. Well, Gerhig, you know I don't play you and I dont because there is no money in it. There are a lot of players I won't play for the same reason. Lets see, how many times have you seen me playing mulitple tables? So many times you wouldn't be able to count them. From what I understand, bots cannot multitable. You know what I'm saying is true.

If you believed I was a bot then why haven't you spoke up before now. I've been on FTP for almost 2 years but now all of sudden I'm a bot??. I was a player at Pokeroom as well and there was a whole lot of talk about bots there but did one person accuse of being a bot? No they did not. How many bots win their way into the WSOP 3 years in a row? How many bots are on teampokroom?? HUH????

There are far too many people who have met me or played me to know that I am not a bot. Your're fueling the flames because you don't want me on the site as I'm a winning player and I take food out of your mouth. Plain and simple. But go ahead, you will only discredit yourself by contuining to support out and out lies.

I DEMAND ,AS SHOULD EVERY PERSON WHO HAS AN ACCOUNT AT FTP, TO SEE THE PROOF.

FTP this is not going away. I am not stopping until I'm exonerated.

gehrig 11-03-2007 08:39 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
lololol

my favorite part was when u called crazy mike my pal <3

mbpoker 11-03-2007 08:52 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
SillySal - are you and beatme1 the same person?

Phil153 11-03-2007 09:01 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
From what I understand, bots cannot multitable. You know what I'm saying is true.

[/ QUOTE ]
You've played high limit poker for years and yet you make an obviously absurd statement like this?

toutatis70 11-03-2007 09:02 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
I hope no heads up players in the future play as well as an accused bot. poker bots must really know how to play huh. wonder who proggrammed them.

IWEARGOGGLES 11-03-2007 09:06 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
Dude the fact that you make it seem like you can't play on your account for 4 hours and then make the bot play for another 4 or whatever is stupid.

I seriously think you're either 100% guilty or 100% an idiot. Or both.

LOL bots can't multitable.

I could play on Pokerstars for 5 years, but if I botted for one day I'd expect them to ban my ass and take my money.

gehrig 11-03-2007 09:07 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
From what I understand, bots cannot multitable. You know what I'm saying is true.

[/ QUOTE ]
You've played high limit poker for years and yet you make an obviously absurd statement like this?

[/ QUOTE ]
oh i didnt even see that quote from sillysal

ive been pretty active in all these threads and i have absolutely no recollection of anyone ever saying bots can't multitable.

but thinking about it, i can't really recall ever seeing any of the bots multitable.

i guess sillysal is pretty familiar with how they work

_dave_ 11-03-2007 09:09 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]

does anyone wanna link to the big beatme1 thread


[/ QUOTE ]

Here we go...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rt=all&vc=1


Something that interests me is the age of the Sillysal 2p2 account - most of these type of things are accounts created on the day of the first post - Sillysal has been here for a long time, user# 818!

There are certain similarities between the two cases for sure - although I don't think we ever got to see stats for beatme1 like we have here. But Gehrig says they play the same so it would seem.

Either the two cases are running the same HU limit bot, or this also calls in to question the validity of the betame1 confiscations too.

SillySal - if you are not one and the same as beatme1 (did you ever play each other?) - it may be a good idea to meet up with her...

toutatis70 11-03-2007 09:14 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
From what I understand, bots cannot multitable. You know what I'm saying is true.

[/ QUOTE ]
You've played high limit poker for years and yet you make an obviously absurd statement like this?

[/ QUOTE ]
oh i didnt even see that quote from sillysal

ive been pretty active in all these threads and i have absolutely no recollection of anyone ever saying bots can't multitable.

but thinking about it, i can't really recall ever seeing any of the bots multitable.

i guess sillysal is pretty familiar with how they work

[/ QUOTE ]

So what about that pattern Fulltilt? Silly sal=multitable human programmed bot no multitable. Sounds fishy that silly would play herself and at the same time employ the human programed superior bot at another table to play. Wow never seen so many players scared of these human programmed bots, these bots must bluff real well and detect bluffs huh.

gaming_mouse 11-03-2007 09:18 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
so obviously guilty

[Phill] 11-03-2007 09:35 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
Im confused what the real evidence here is to make her "obviously guilty".

I mean given a large enough sample you will always have a few players with the same stats - so you can throw that out if it is unsupported with further details.

So, it comes back to Full Tilt.

Also - as i predicted way back on page 1, it is now clear that Crazy Mike is behind this being brought to the attention of FTP.

Anyway, i guess unlike some of you im waiting for Mike Haven (assuming i havent missed it) to come here and say "yeah, obv guilty" or "well, im no expert, but im not convinced" etc.

ephro 11-03-2007 09:57 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
Crazy Mike was not involved in this investigation. I have asked that Mike Haven contact me directly but he is going to bed for the night. We have forwarded him on what I believe to be conclusive evidence, but I would prefer that he review it and respond directly. Personally I would have preferred a final review tonight, but that doesn't seem like its going to happen. I don't want to comment further on the case, but would prefer a trusted third party. For any legitimate questions contact me through PM.


Ephraim

StellarWind 11-03-2007 10:03 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
Here is an extract from the information FTP sent me.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's important to realize that this statistical comparison is the tip of the iceberg of what FTP security may have done. They have all of the hand records with complete hole cards and a very large sample size. There are literally thousands of stats that can be computed if you are willing to write a little software to do the analysis. Examples for HU play:

1. Hero raises preflop from the SB/Button, bets and 3-bets the flop, and gets checkraised on the turn. Hero then:

Folds X%
Calls Y%
3-bets Z%

2. Hero defends the BB with suited cards and flops a flush draw. Hero then:

Bets out X%
Checkcalls Y%
Checkraises Z%

This process of creating and comparing new stats can go on-and-on until you get bored (or three weeks pass [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]). If two players are identical in every aspect of their game then the only reasonable conclusion is that they are the same player. It's not possible for two human beings to play a sophisticated game of poker in such an identical fashion. Indeed it is unlikely that the same player could play 100K hands and then play another 100K hands that looked exactly like the first. People change over time. Only software can be duplicated to produce multiple unchanging copies of itself.

The population of regular high-limit HU LHE players on FTP is very small, perhaps a few dozen at most. Go open up FTP sometime and take a look around. It's not like FTP searched all the people on Earth to find three identical players.

The case of the low-level NL grinders who were acquitted of botting despite identical stats is different in the following ways:

1. The system they were playing was deliberately designed to be a baby system that multiple people could learn to play identically.

2. It was alleged (never publicly confirmed but FTP probably checked) that they each played the blinds in their own personal way.

3. They all admitted to be related to each other. So far Sal has not made any claim that she and the other two players worked together to develop an identical style. In all likelihood the opposite is true. They probably carefully made their accounts look unrelated to hide their botting activity.

Sal is demanding to see evidence that a bot was running on her computer. That may never be forthcoming for the simple reason that the bot may not have been running on her computer. It's quite possible that the AI program ran on a different computer with Sal sitting at the computer providing the interface. That would allow her to handle routine chores like sitting down, posting, and avoiding scary opponents while the AI program did all the actual playing. Given the stakes the bot was playing it would be greedy not to monitor it at all times anyway.

If my hypothesis is correct it doesn't excuse anything. Using an AI program to make your decisions is cheating regardless of who is holding the mouse.

DeNutza 11-03-2007 10:14 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
Its already been stated by inside security sources that
sites do take SCREENSHOTS.

There could be no basis to determine your using AI intelligence otherwise.


Did Sal ever post the exact screenname?

_dave_ 11-03-2007 10:17 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]

If my hypothesis is correct it doesn't excuse anything. Using an AI program to make your decisions is cheating regardless of who is holding the mouse.


[/ QUOTE ]

Um, no it isn't [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

As evidenced by nlnut et al - using computer-aided decision making is A-OK on FTP providing a human is at the controls and has the ability to override the bot's "suggestion"

Same goes for Stars regarding certain applications on the "allowed software" list.

Why on earth would a site deem "advisory" class applications a bannable offense?

The danger of poker bots is not that they play correctly - a trained human can do that - it is that they can play unattended 24/7 without tilt and can be replicated at will.

No?

DeNutza 11-03-2007 10:29 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
Sal seems to be adamant that he isnt a pure poker bot.

I believe him, but somewhere you have to draw the line
on what is acceptable (pokertracker) and what isnt when
it comes to computer aided decisions.

By Sals reaction, he's clearly using alot of his own
judgement when to leave/enter games, and its probably
still alot of work to win $ via whatever method hes
using.

Im almost certain FT would have to have screenshots.

Choparno 11-03-2007 10:29 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
As others have said, surely it is not a convincing defence to just say “I am not a bot, because I have tilted / quit good games / don’t have timing tells”. Someone does not have to run bot software on their account 100% of the time; in fact if they were operating a bot some of the time it would be in their interests to have a pattern of play where they are exhibiting non-bot characteristics. This should be pretty obvious.

Also, the change in Sillysal's tone from “please post any data you have on me” to “this data does not prove anything, you need to prove I was running bot software” is strange to say the least.

Ryanski 11-03-2007 10:29 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
I am one of the 30/60 , 50/100 HU regulars mainly on FT, and the thing that always made me curious about pokergirl z and daurgman is their relatively low VPIP from the button. Most HU regulars have AT LEAST 80 minimum from here, whereas I believe all the bots previous that were busted(bocaloca, bono1945) are all under this.

Raising only 65-75% from the button is definitely missing value preflop, and can be quite the mistake over time.

A few of the bots busted from the past:

Bobaloca: 66 VPIP , 74.77 VPIP from button, 1324 hands
bono1945: 63 VPIP, 74.76 VPIP from button, 1045 hands
Japinthesack: 65.29 VPIP, 75.85 VPIP from button, 3449 hands
FlopbeNice: 67.1 VPIP, 72.55 VPIP from button, 611 hands

It`s just amazing that any HU regular that has played for as long as pokergirl z has would not have recognized such an obvious mistake.


pok z : only 419 hands, 64.69, 75.92 VPIP from button


Look at some of the players like the bryce, gehrig, hoss, antonius, pretty much any regular over 10 20 have VPIPs from the button of over 80, almost all other regulars have VPIP from button over 80.


Pok z also lied earlier about using the grego777 account which has obviously been her other account, always logged on whenever pok z was logged on.

Pok z also talks exactly like beatme did, which is humorous.



Any thoughts on NiHaoMah, cenizo is weird too.

Choparno 11-03-2007 10:37 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
A question for the mid/high HU limit players. Are there regulars who play exclusively HU, or is it common for players at these stakes to also play 3-4 handed depending on game selection?

I am thinking back to earlier in the thread when a player mentioned Sillysal would immediately sit out on WPX when a game became 3-handed, even when playing a huge fish. Just wondering whether there is a class of strictly HU players for whom this is common practice or not.

___1___ 11-03-2007 10:40 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
A question for the mid/high HU limit players. Are there regulars who play exclusively HU, or is it common for players at these stakes to also play 3-4 handed depending on game selection?

I am thinking back to earlier in the thread when a player mentioned Sillysal would immediately sit out on WPX when a game became 3-handed, even when playing a huge fish. Just wondering whether there is a class of strictly HU players for whom this is common practice or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of the mid/high HU limit players on FT play HU exclusively. Not all but most.

gehrig 11-03-2007 10:47 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
ryanski,

bono, flopbenice, bobaloca, lip2lip, daurgman 8 months ago etc all play exactly the same and all play good. they all have the same bot timing tells etc

grego, poker girl z, beatme1 and daurgman in the last few months all play exactly the same (but different from the first group) and all get the same obvious poker-stuff wrong. none of them have ever had bot timing tells that i've observed. this group is pretty much break-even at this point which shows a certain level of competence given the stakes they play.

R*R 11-03-2007 10:55 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
Not to be rude but who are you? Are you a spokesperson of some sort?

jukofyork 11-03-2007 10:59 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If my hypothesis is correct it doesn't excuse anything. Using an AI program to make your decisions is cheating regardless of who is holding the mouse.


[/ QUOTE ]

Um, no it isn't [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

As evidenced by nlnut et al - using computer-aided decision making is A-OK on FTP providing a human is at the controls and has the ability to override the bot's "suggestion"

Same goes for Stars regarding certain applications on the "allowed software" list.

Why on earth would a site deem "advisory" class applications a bannable offense?

The danger of poker bots is not that they play correctly - a trained human can do that - it is that they can play unattended 24/7 without tilt and can be replicated at will.

No?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think when you get to the stage of allowing players to just follow the output of some poker AI and say it's ok so long as a human clicks the buttons, then that will be a sure fire way to kill online poker. It seems strange that in online chess/backgammon it is quite clearly cheating to use an engine to advise you (even if you press the buttons yourself...).

First NU LHE was targeted probably because of the availability of research papers, but I fear that next SNGs will be targeted in a similar way. I previously tried to bring peoples attention to this in this post, but was surprised at the level of apathy and the number of people who seem to think it's fine to use poker AI so long as "you click the buttons yourself".

If poker sites wish to allow realtime game-theoretic advisers for SNGs then I think they should also allow them for HU LHE. What exactly is the difference?

Juk [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ryanski 11-03-2007 11:11 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
ryanski,

bono, flopbenice, bobaloca, lip2lip, daurgman 8 months ago etc all play exactly the same and all play good. they all have the same bot timing tells etc

grego, poker girl z, beatme1 and daurgman in the last few months all play exactly the same (but different from the first group) and all get the same obvious poker-stuff wrong. none of them have ever had bot timing tells that i've observed. this group is pretty much break-even at this point which shows a certain level of competence given the stakes they play.

[/ QUOTE ]


No arguments about pok z and greggo`s timing tells, barely watched them ever, but the 15 minutes I watched daurgman, guy paused every time it was his turn to act, preflop, postflop, whatever, it was very consistent.

Saw him bust a few times on other occasions as well, never reloading when with a few BBs left, and when completely bust his buyin, just sit there with no chat at all, no reload of any sort, nothing.

NiHaoMah is legit right É . I have no stats on him.

gehrig 11-03-2007 11:13 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
how long ago did u watch daurgman

when bobaloca etc were running daurgman was an obvious bot

in the last 3ish months i haven't noticed the bot timing tells but its not like i sweat his every session

Leader 11-03-2007 11:16 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
Pokergirl z
Pre-flop played %
65

grego777
Pre-flop played %
66

Daurgman
Pre-flop played %
68

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very unlikely that these stats in particular came from the same player/bot. If the player's true stat is 65, then after 62K hands they will be within that ~.4 of the 65 95% of the time. It's about a one in ten million event that this player would have a 66 stat. It's virtually impossible for the stat to be 68 over the samples discussed. Of course, this type of analysis assumes things that may not be true such as static game conditions/inability of the bot to adjust. It also assumes that MH or FT didn't round 65.4 to 65 and 65.6 to 66. Even so, I felt it necessary to point out that appearances here maybe deceiving and that it's possible to draw the opposite conclusion from the data then is obvious from just looking at it.

Ryanski 11-03-2007 11:16 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
how long ago did u watch daurgman

when bobaloca etc were running daurgman was an obvious bot

in the last 3ish months i haven't noticed the bot timing tells but its not like i sweat his every session

[/ QUOTE ]


It wasn`t long ago 1.5 months from today tops, most likely sooner, probably one of it`s last sessions on the site. Memory of the event is not the greatest though.

Probably watched pok z like twice for 5 minutes each, no weird timing tells there though.

augie_ 11-03-2007 11:17 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think when you get to the stage of allowing players to just follow the output of some poker AI and say it's ok so long as a human clicks the buttons, then that will be a sure fire way to kill online poker.


[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think dave's post is accurate. i think what he posted is the conspiracy theory the zoo agreed upon with those nl bots. but nobody knows the real truth.

_dave_ 11-03-2007 11:18 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
Glad you weighed in here Juk.

And this is exactly my point - under the current status-quo, these realtime advisory apps *are* allowed.

I do nnot believe this is a good thing - for reasons you state - but I believe it is key to these cases.

If there is a chance you can have your funds confiscated / account closed for using these - it must be made clear.

If it is fine to use these sort of programs - well, FTP better have much more significant evidence than "similar stats".

Where the line is drawn is currently very unclear, it must be addressed.

[ QUOTE ]

but was surprised at the level of apathy and the number of people who seem to think it's fine to use poker AI so long as "you click the buttons yourself".


[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interesting field. Particularly for games which may be prety much "solved" with current hardware (SNGs, HU Limit, Shortstack NLHE)

Are we to really consider that the primary problem with bots is their expert play? Why not therefore punish winners?

This is probably a subject for a different thread, lol [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Leader 11-03-2007 11:19 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
Re-timing: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...n=0&page=0

I'd hate to be accused of being a bot

gehrig 11-03-2007 11:22 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pokergirl z
Pre-flop played %
65

grego777
Pre-flop played %
66

Daurgman
Pre-flop played %
68

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very unlikely that these stats in particular came from the same player/bot. If the player's true stat is 65, then after 62K hands they will be within that ~.4 of the 65 95% of the time. It's about a one in ten million event that this player would have a 66 stat. It's virtually impossible for the stat to be 68 over the samples discussed. Of course, this type of analysis assumes things that may not be true such as static game conditions/inability of the bot to adjust. It also assumes that MH or FT didn't round 65.4 to 65 and 65.6 to 66. Even so, I felt it necessary to point out that appearances here maybe deceiving and that it's possible to draw the opposite conclusion from the data then is obvious from just looking at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually i think ur right

i took it for granted just from the fact that the stats were posted that daurgman was the same as pokergirl/grego, but it's clear that pokergirl/grego/beatme play the same which is unlike any other regular.

_dave_ 11-03-2007 11:28 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think when you get to the stage of allowing players to just follow the output of some poker AI and say it's ok so long as a human clicks the buttons, then that will be a sure fire way to kill online poker.


[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think dave's post is accurate. i think what he posted is the conspiracy theory the zoo agreed upon with those nl bots. but nobody knows the real truth.

[/ QUOTE ]


My post was more based on the realtime ICM softweare Juk linked to rather than the nlnut threads.

My point being, if one can legitimately write a strategy on paper and follow it - with this being allowable - then there is no difference in automating that strategy retrieval via software.

Take for example a full ring NL setminer "bot".

Written on paper (or memorized):

"PRE FLOP: play all pocket pairs & AK following 5/10 rule. If unopened, raise yourself.

POST FLOP: If TPTK or set, bet/bet/bet else check fold"

This bot will win $$$ (slowly). Given 27% rakeback, it will certainly profit.



Does it really matter if the human reads from paper / memory or an on screen display? I say NO.

Does it matter if the human need not be present / able to click buttons fast enough? HELL YES.

that is the real danger of botting, not their play but the fact that their volume of play is limited by a human's ability to follow instructions / not tilt.

gehrig 11-03-2007 11:28 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
some PT screen shots

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...g38/cenizo.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...38/cenizo2.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...wdaurgman1.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...wdaurgman2.jpg

the daurgman shots are from the last few months only

PartyGirlUK 11-03-2007 11:33 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
Leader your point falls down when you consider the two people have likely been playing a different cross section of people.

Leader 11-03-2007 11:35 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pokergirl z
Pre-flop played %
65

grego777
Pre-flop played %
66

Daurgman
Pre-flop played %
68

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very unlikely that these stats in particular came from the same player/bot. If the player's true stat is 65, then after 62K hands they will be within that ~.4 of the 65 95% of the time. It's about a one in ten million event that this player would have a 66 stat. It's virtually impossible for the stat to be 68 over the samples discussed. Of course, this type of analysis assumes things that may not be true such as static game conditions/inability of the bot to adjust. It also assumes that MH or FT didn't round 65.4 to 65 and 65.6 to 66. Even so, I felt it necessary to point out that appearances here maybe deceiving and that it's possible to draw the opposite conclusion from the data then is obvious from just looking at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually i think ur right

i took it for granted just from the fact that the stats were posted that daurgman was the same as pokergirl/grego, but it's clear that pokergirl/grego/beatme play the same which is unlike any other regular.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's completely possible. You're judgment, as someone that has played with these players, is much more convincing to me then a bunch of almost of the same stats.

gaming_mouse 11-03-2007 11:36 PM

Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pokergirl z
Pre-flop played %
65

grego777
Pre-flop played %
66

Daurgman
Pre-flop played %
68

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very unlikely that these stats in particular came from the same player/bot. If the player's true stat is 65, then after 62K hands they will be within that ~.4 of the 65 95% of the time. It's about a one in ten million event that this player would have a 66 stat. It's virtually impossible for the stat to be 68 over the samples discussed. Of course, this type of analysis assumes things that may not be true such as static game conditions/inability of the bot to adjust. It also assumes that MH or FT didn't round 65.4 to 65 and 65.6 to 66. Even so, I felt it necessary to point out that appearances here maybe deceiving and that it's possible to draw the opposite conclusion from the data then is obvious from just looking at it.

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Leader,

It seems as if this new batch of bots learned from their old mistakes and are taking precautions. It's well known now that the sites (and many concerned players too) are making stat comparisons as a way of identifying potential bots.

It would be very easy to make the bot configurable so that stats don't converge exactly, even though the underlying logic is essentially the same. Think, for example, of making small adjustments to stealing and defending ranges that will have very little impact on your bottom line.


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