Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

I couldn't get much money online this week and I'm just doing some weird modified round-robins with what I deposited to try to get a decent amount of action so I'm not posting any official picks this week. The teams I like this week though, in order are Oregon, Iowa, Rutgers, and Purdue.

I wanted to mention Iowa in particular as I haven't seen them brought up on this forum and they're a 3 point dog when I think they should actually be favored. Michigan State's in a textbook sandwich game, coming off a disappointing loss to #1 Ohio State last week, and with the rivalry battle with Michigan coming up next Saturday. No way are they motivated for a road game with 1-3 Iowa.

Iowa's already beaten a better team (Illinois) in a similar situation however and the matchups favor them too. Iowa's strength is rush defense and their two best games have come against pure running teams in Illinois and Wisconsin. They'll get a similar matchup against Michigan State who has run the ball 353 times this year compared to only 225 passing attempts. Also, MSU's already shown a tendency to let down this year, falling to Northwestern immediately after their close loss to Wisconsin. I'd expect the Hawkeyes to win here 20-17.

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

good analysis

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

wvu -6, rutgers can't contain qb's who run too much. i expect wvu will roll out to the sides a lot and have a lot of open space in front of them

pouring rain here in nj too, really bad. might take the under not sure yet

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

the myth: offense has the edge on off surfaces.

the fact: defense has the edge on off surfaces.

this particularly applies to offenses composed of cut and juke type runners: no purchase for them little toesees...

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oregon was the right side there too, turnovers were the only thing that kept them from winning and covering.

[/ QUOTE ]

turnovers are what happens to bad teams when good ones come to town. i wonder how many turn-overs we'll see today? 4? 5?

hey, it's prop time.

tlt

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oregon was the right side there too, turnovers were the only thing that kept them from winning and covering.

[/ QUOTE ]

turnovers are what happens to bad teams when good ones come to town. i wonder how many turn-overs we'll see today? 4? 5?

hey, it's prop time.

tlt

[/ QUOTE ]

o rly?

I think you should look at turnovers by top 10 teams playing non-ranked opponents this year

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
lol @ picking their 3 road games to judge them.

[/ QUOTE ]

where all their inconsistencies, poor preparation, and matchup deficiencies are shown to the greatest degree.

yeah, who wants to know what a team can do when the pressure's on? not me, i want to bet.

tlt

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

say, myturn,

i'm a little confused by your oregon selection. you initially supported them strongly, waffled throughout the week--even listing several of their inadequacies as i recall, finally selected them as a 1U bet, then abruptly made them a POTW at 5.5U (that's right ladies and gentlemens, 5.5, the big five0five).

perhaps you could explain your willingness to expose 10% (assuming a unit is 2%; or are we talking dollars here?) of your bankroll on a game that has caused you such indecision?

injuries? was sc's defensive line arrested en mass for breaking and entering, or swearing in church?

perhaps you give the emergence last week of v. hazelton as a bona fide deep threat at wide out less credit in your analysis than it may deserve? or decide sc's #4 defensive ranking against the rush unworthy of your attention? or did you bother to analyze the game whatsoever? is this an intuition? did your models indicate the stupid money (that is, any money not yours) loading up on sc? help me out here, i need to understand how a master goes about his business.

tlt

by the way, i did not use an Universal Quantifier in my statement about fumbles. sometimes folks fumble cuz they's hands is cold.

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
Iowa's already beaten a better team (Illinois) in a similar situation however and the matchups favor them too. Iowa's strength is rush defense and their two best games have come against pure running teams in Illinois and Wisconsin. They'll get a similar matchup against Michigan State who has run the ball 353 times this year compared to only 225 passing attempts. Also, MSU's already shown a tendency to let down this year, falling to Northwestern immediately after their close loss to Wisconsin. I'd expect the Hawkeyes to win here 20-17.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm so vain. A field goal would have locked up the cover there, but I was half-cheering for him to miss it, so I could get the exact score right. Let's hope that doesn't come back to bite me in the last 6:00.

Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

I already said this but I really liked your thoughts on the game and trailed you on Iowa.