Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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Anybody have thoughts on breaking one of the rules by taking the Panthers in Atlanta this weekend? Or I could take the Patriots at home versus Buffalo.

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NE at home>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>CAR away (plus the only rule picking NE breaks doesn't really exist (see my last post))

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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ok remind me again why inter division is a bad thing when it's the pats at home ?

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The Pats at home against the Bills might be worth breaking the interdivision rule for. (NE is 11-1 against BUF since Brady became the starter)

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I still don't understand the interdivisional rule. Is there evidence that upsets happen more often in divisional games or did someone just pull this rule out of their ass? Serious question.

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According to Football Outsiders's Aaron (who I e-mailed the question to a few days ago), no it doesn't matter. If New England played Buffalo at home this week or some team that was Buffalo's clone but wasn't in the AFC East the outcome would not be likely to be different just because one is/isn't in the AFC East.

So according to FO's data, rule 5 is worthless.

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That's what I thought. Kind of makes me wonder if any of these rules have any legitimacy. Stuff like home field advantage is supposed to be factored into the spread.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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Anybody have thoughts on breaking one of the rules by taking the Panthers in Atlanta this weekend?

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If you want to lose you can just not pick.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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ok remind me again why inter division is a bad thing when it's the pats at home ?

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The Pats at home against the Bills might be worth breaking the interdivision rule for. (NE is 11-1 against BUF since Brady became the starter)

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I still don't understand the interdivisional rule. Is there evidence that upsets happen more often in divisional games or did someone just pull this rule out of their ass? Serious question.

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According to Football Outsiders's Aaron (who I e-mailed the question to a few days ago), no it doesn't matter. If New England played Buffalo at home this week or some team that was Buffalo's clone but wasn't in the AFC East the outcome would not be likely to be different just because one is/isn't in the AFC East.

So according to FO's data, rule 5 is worthless.

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That's what I thought. Kind of makes me wonder if any of these rules have any legitimacy. Stuff like home field advantage is supposed to be factored into the spread.

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Well, I still think rules 1-2,4, and 6 are still good. (although 1 and 4 are basically the same thing)

Another fact is that according to the data I got from FO, the home team will score 2.85 more points than if they were away, showing that Vegas is right to give the home team -3 right away.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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ok remind me again why inter division is a bad thing when it's the pats at home ?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Pats at home against the Bills might be worth breaking the interdivision rule for. (NE is 11-1 against BUF since Brady became the starter)

[/ QUOTE ]
I still don't understand the interdivisional rule. Is there evidence that upsets happen more often in divisional games or did someone just pull this rule out of their ass? Serious question.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Football Outsiders's Aaron (who I e-mailed the question to a few days ago), no it doesn't matter. If New England played Buffalo at home this week or some team that was Buffalo's clone but wasn't in the AFC East the outcome would not be likely to be different just because one is/isn't in the AFC East.

So according to FO's data, rule 5 is worthless.

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That's what I thought. Kind of makes me wonder if any of these rules have any legitimacy. Stuff like home field advantage is supposed to be factored into the spread.

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The spread doesn't matter in a standard survivor league.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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ok remind me again why inter division is a bad thing when it's the pats at home ?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Pats at home against the Bills might be worth breaking the interdivision rule for. (NE is 11-1 against BUF since Brady became the starter)

[/ QUOTE ]
I still don't understand the interdivisional rule. Is there evidence that upsets happen more often in divisional games or did someone just pull this rule out of their ass? Serious question.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Football Outsiders's Aaron (who I e-mailed the question to a few days ago), no it doesn't matter. If New England played Buffalo at home this week or some team that was Buffalo's clone but wasn't in the AFC East the outcome would not be likely to be different just because one is/isn't in the AFC East.

So according to FO's data, rule 5 is worthless.

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That's what I thought. Kind of makes me wonder if any of these rules have any legitimacy. Stuff like home field advantage is supposed to be factored into the spread.

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Well, I still think rules 1-2,4, and 6 are still good. (although 1 and 4 are basically the same thing)

Another fact is that according to the data I got from FO, the home team will score 2.85 more points than if they were away, showing that Vegas is right to give the home team -3 right away.

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Right. But why then would there be a "rule" about not taking road teams for survivor leagues? If the spread already accounts for home field advantage, shouldn't you just take the team with the biggest point spread regardless of where they are playing?

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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ok remind me again why inter division is a bad thing when it's the pats at home ?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Pats at home against the Bills might be worth breaking the interdivision rule for. (NE is 11-1 against BUF since Brady became the starter)

[/ QUOTE ]
I still don't understand the interdivisional rule. Is there evidence that upsets happen more often in divisional games or did someone just pull this rule out of their ass? Serious question.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Football Outsiders's Aaron (who I e-mailed the question to a few days ago), no it doesn't matter. If New England played Buffalo at home this week or some team that was Buffalo's clone but wasn't in the AFC East the outcome would not be likely to be different just because one is/isn't in the AFC East.

So according to FO's data, rule 5 is worthless.

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That's what I thought. Kind of makes me wonder if any of these rules have any legitimacy. Stuff like home field advantage is supposed to be factored into the spread.

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The spread doesn't matter in a standard survivor league.

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I know. My point is that you should just take the team that is favored by the most points and ignore home field advantage (and pretty much all of these "rules").

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

I'd rather take a 7 point home favorite than a 7.5 road favorite, but you do have a valid point.

Look at the bright side. No new survivor threads have been started since this one!

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

Why wouldn't you look at the ML instead of the spread? I mean if we're going to deride his post... Why not atleast use the appropriate expert index?

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

If you just take the highest favorite, you might have lost in week 1 (The two highest favorites were tied at -6.5 and one lost outright)