Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

The CO is tight, but is he aggressive or passive?

I believe I'm behind here, and have less outs than we may think. We are either against a set, JJ, or KJ. So, an 8, A, 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are all tainted, IMO. That leaves 7 clubs and 3 King outs. If any of the tainted outs come, it is going to be hard to call a large bet.

So, with position, I like a call here. I may be put to the test with a tough river, but I prefer getting all my chips in with the best hand in the early part of tournaments, and I don't have the best hand, just the best draw, right now. I call, hoping to squeeze out a river card and a lot of COs chips.

I forgot to take Miami John into consideration. He could conceivably make a big check raise here in hopes of taking down the pot. However, with CO being classified as tight, I'd have to believe MJ also sees this, and is going to fold all but a few big hands. And a raise isn't going to push him off anything he is check raising with. So, if MJ raises behind, we have an interesting decision, depending on what CO does. I believe if MJ raises, CO will push and we will be forced out of the hand. If MJ calls, we are in an even better position. And if he folds, which I believe he will do, we are hoping for a nice river.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

This thread is 2 months old, why the reply all the sudden.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Because I'm just reading it. I often have very little time and only read a few posts. I've got time now and I'm catching up on my reading. I posted because I wanted to remember what I was thinking when I get to the rest of the hand at a later time.

Is that OK with you?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Post away! I would hope these are read and reviewed on an ongoing basis so any new additions or thoughts would just add to the discussion.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Im dumb sry

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Just call. We have a big draw and direct odds to hit it, plus a tiny bit of implied odds. There's a difference between playing to accumulate chips and getting ourselves into situations where our chips go in as a clear dog.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Wow, I just reread this thread as well as PF/Flop, and three things come to mind:

1. I wish I had posted (been around to post?) in these.

2. A lot of really great players have suggested some really not great lines.

3. I am 100x the player I was when I first read this thread.

Seriously, this is the biggest confidence boost evar. I remember deliberating and going back and forth on all these streets the first time around, and now I can confidently snap-off my line here with no second thoughts. And referring to #2, it's not that I'm saying peepz is dumb, just that even the most respected of posters on this forum have obviously improved dramatically over the last year.

Oh, and this is a call on this street.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I'm sure we're behind CO. He could have KJ for straight, or k10 for draw and pair. I say we call for chance at monster, even if it screams draw. FWIW, MJ refers to Michael Jordan, not Miami John Cernuto.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Maybe I'm just wierd but again my logic is totally different, but I arrive at a common conclusion.

The CO is on KJ, QT or TT. Why?

He limped pre-flop to see what came on the flop, had enough faith in the hand to call the extra 450 pre-flop AND wasn't strong enough to bet out before seeing what the pre-flop raiser (the button) did. Now, with that Q, he's on the attack. Could it be a bluff? Sure, but that's a lot less likely when it's 3 way, it's early in the tournament and there are two people he has to deal with. However, he has nearly twice the stack of his opponents so, of the 3, he's the most likely to try a bluff since he can most easily absorb the hit if it goes sideways on him.

All things considered, he's most likely holding 2 pair, a set or a straight. This means KJ, QT or TT. remember, if he had QQ or JJ he couldn't have afforded to let his opponents see a free card on the turn and he's not likely to be on AA because he would have tried to isolate one opponent pre-flop. KK is a longshot and not very likely, but still possible if he was trying to slow play pre-flop... but I doubt that he's reckless enough to do that from the way he's described.

Now, this is where my logic deviates...

Any hand that the CO could have is the one we need to be concerned with, I agree. Any hand that the SB (MJ) might have had that would justify his actions so far is a hand that we will lose to if we lose to the CO, or that we will beat if we beat the CO. So we will either win the hand or come out sucking hind teat. Can we use that?

Yes.

If we push, it's likely that we'll get called and be a dog. Tournaments are about survival and pushing here and now isn't going to help us survive. If we raise 5k then the SB will most likely fold and we'll nearly be pot committed. If the CO calls then we're either all in on the river or we have to let it go... leaving us severly crippled and easy to pick off with a micro-stack. And for those lovely options what do we get?

We get 6950 for our 5000, because the SB folds... and that only if we're not re-raised all in by the CO. This is looking to be about as fun as a root canal.

But what if we only call? The SB is going to be looking at getting 4950 for his 1500 and even if he's only got an over pair, he'll probably call. It's extremely unlikely that he's going to raise into 2 callers who just ponied up 1500 each because, considering what we have and what we put the CO on, the SB can't be very far ahead, if he's even ahead at all.

By calling we will most likely get a call from the SB too, making the total pot 4950 for our 1500... which is a heck of a lot better than 6950 for 5000. This move also allows us to preserve our starting 10,000 so we won't be crippled if we're forced to let this hand go on the river.

When I look at it all that way, using my wierd-ling logic and looking at our great draws, it's an auto-call.

Vorlin