Re: The Official NHL Playoffs Thread
 

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Man I hope it ends in 6, that would be so money, I have tickets to that.


For all you sharp betting fans, here's the stat most of you sens fans know. In the modern sens history, Ottawa has NEVER won a game 2 after winning game 1.

yes I'm betting Buffalo for game 2, and hard.

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are you really on a gambling website saying this? i mean - really?

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Believe it or not, if ONE new person reads my post and gains knowledge from it, it's worth it. The fact that you know about it is clearly not relevant. Like I know nadda about baseball betting, and the baseball guys were kind enough to teach me about Wakefield in domes. I didn't know ! And I'm glad they posted it. but thanks tips !

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my point was not that this is a good tip. there's absolutely nothing to suggest that this trend will continue.

Re: The Official NHL Playoffs Thread
 

"my point was not that this is a good tip. there's absolutely nothing to suggest that this trend will continue"

You're right, in sportsbetting nobody ever uses historical statistics

*rolls eyes*

Re: The Official NHL Playoffs Thread
 

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"my point was not that this is a good tip. there's absolutely nothing to suggest that this trend will continue"

You're right, in sportsbetting nobody ever uses historical statistics

*rolls eyes*

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i flip a fair coin 10 times, it lands heads each time. you're the sucker who thinks it's going to keep landing on heads.

Re: The Official NHL Playoffs Thread
 

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"my point was not that this is a good tip. there's absolutely nothing to suggest that this trend will continue"

You're right, in sportsbetting nobody ever uses historical statistics

*rolls eyes*

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i flip a fair coin 10 times, it lands heads each time. you're the sucker who thinks it's going to keep landing on heads.

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Are you serious ? You think the 50/50 logic applies to this specific scenario ?

Do you know why Wakefield wins so much in domes ? Or why the sens almost always have so much trouble in game 2's, or why the second game of a sens series is almost always lower then game 1 ?

These aren't random 50-50 events. There is actual logic behind them.

Buffalo and the under in game 2 is going to be a great bet. I'm not telling you to bet it, but I certainly will. And people who have been following the sens know exactly why it's a great bet.

I mean I've lived in Ottawa 25 years now. I may know a little something about it.

Re: The Official NHL Playoffs Thread
 

Different players, different coaches, different opposing teams with different players and coaches... Yeah.

Re: The Official NHL Playoffs Thread
 

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Different players, different coaches, different opposing teams with different players and coaches... Yeah.

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Actually no. 75% same players. Exactly same coaches. Same reaction by Vegas to up the line on the total, when the sens are mostly going to be looking to play a standard road game where they can win 2-1 or 3-1. If the total goes to 6.5, I'm on the under in a second. As for Buffalo winning this game, I love it. Vegas is going to give Buffalo a very favoroable line. *maybe* -105 at home. All day...

Re: The Official NHL Playoffs Thread
 

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Different players, different coaches, different opposing teams with different players and coaches... Yeah.

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Actually no. 75% same players. Exactly same coaches. Same reaction by Vegas to up the line on the total, when the sens are mostly going to be looking to play a standard road game where they can win 2-1 or 3-1. If the total goes to 6.5, I'm on the under in a second. As for Buffalo winning this game, I love it. Vegas is going to give Buffalo a very favoroable line. *maybe* -105 at home. All day...

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buffalo at home may be a good bet independent of the fact that ottawa has lost all its game 2s in this fashion. you've provided absolutely no reasoning why ottawa should lose game 2, other than that they've lost all their previous ones. this is why this is like a coin flipping scenario.

wakefield in domes may have something to do with the air and the effect on his knuckleball - it'd be interesting if someone could look up phil and joe niekro's home and road splits, especially when the latter pitched in the astrodome.

plus wakefield's most likely dome to play in is tropicana field, and the rays have typically been an awful hitting team.

Re: The Official NHL Playoffs Thread
 

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Different players, different coaches, different opposing teams with different players and coaches... Yeah.

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Actually no. 75% same players. Exactly same coaches. Same reaction by Vegas to up the line on the total, when the sens are mostly going to be looking to play a standard road game where they can win 2-1 or 3-1. If the total goes to 6.5, I'm on the under in a second. As for Buffalo winning this game, I love it. Vegas is going to give Buffalo a very favoroable line. *maybe* -105 at home. All day...

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buffalo at home may be a good bet independent of the fact that ottawa has lost all its game 2s in this fashion. you've provided absolutely no reasoning why ottawa should lose game 2, other than that they've lost all their previous ones. this is why this is like a coin flipping scenario.

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Utah and Phoenix have owned the Rockets for the last 4 years. To the point that even if the Rockets have home court, smart money goes on anything but the Rockets. You think that the historical precidence has no impact ?

Don't you think the Ottawa Senators players have pressure on them to win game 2, knowing they never do ? You don't think this kind of psychological pressure can impact *some* players ? It's criminal to not factor in some of the implications of history when deciding between a bet being good, and great. This is not a coin toss. These are teams who played each other last year, teams who played each other 9 times this year, and a team (Ottawa) that has a tendancy to play game 2 in a much more conservative fashion then it usually plays in game 1's. They play a little more not to lose, then to win. This is usually the case when they get a 1 goal lead.

As such, I'm going to weight that knowledge on my bet. And it's completely different then the 50/50 example you've used so poorly.

Re: The Official NHL Playoffs Thread
 

you're speculating. there's no real evidence to back up your claim. there's no legitimate reason why ottawa should lose game 2 after winning game 1 - except that the sabres are a very good team. i sincerely doubt you get a line like buffalo -105, but i don't know very much about sports betting.

Re: The Official NHL Playoffs Thread
 

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I got tickets to game four, woot. That should be the game Ottawa finishes them off [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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