Stat Check $5/10 only 1,119 hands though (3/20-3/23)

[imashyboi]

I was just wondering for people who plays at PartyPoker what's the worst swings you've gotten and how long? I've had a very bad week and I can't seem to win any of my hands. Since 03/20 - 03/23 I've lost pretty much all my big hands. Here are my stats:

Total hands: 1,119
VP$IP - 17.16% (192 of 1,119)
VP$IP SB - 25.36% (35 of 138)
Raised Pre-flop: 10.72% (120 of 1119)
Folded SB to Steal: 77.78% (14 of 18)
Folded BB to Steal: 57.14% (8 of 14)
Folded BB to Steal HU: 63.64% (7 of 11)
Att. To Steal Blinds: 41.03% (32 of 78)
W$WSF - 35.47% (72 of 203)
Went To Showdown - 34.48% (70 of 203)
W$ASD - 47.14% (33 of 70)
BB/100 - (-5.65 or $56.48)
AF Flop: 2.49
AF Turn: 1.66
AF River: 1.90

Pairs Hands:
AA(2) +$99.15(won 2)
KK(10) -$160(lost 6)
QQ(5) -$67(lost 3)
JJ(5) -$65(lost 2)
TT(2) +$23(won 2)
99(3) +$73(won 2)
88(4) +$117.50(won 3)

AK-KQ hands:
AKs(4) -$10.25(lost 1)
AKo(7) -$142(lost 5)
AQs(3) -$45(lost 3)
AQo(9) -$87.50(lost 4)
AJs(2) -$30(lost 2)
AJo(7) +19(won 2)
ATs(3) -$75(lost 3)
KQs(4) -$9(lost 2)
KQo(7) -$31.75(lost 3)

Now, I'm not the type to slowplay my hands unless I have reason to. The hands I was getting beat by are hands which are totally dominated such as KK vs. TT or AT vs. A9, 2-5 outters. I know the number of hands are very limited so please bare with me. Also, I recently just cashed out on Party so maybe I'm taking a hit. I try not to think about it but I want to mention it anyway because I'm sure people who cashed out on Party tend to have bad swings after. Thoughts?

[DonC]

You run those hands through EVstat and it will turn red all over I'm sure (BAD LUCK) Don't get gunshy here. That's dangerous on downswings and can prolong them indefinitely. Keep firing at those pots when the implied odds are right and get out otherwise. Don't get paranoid that only the absolute nuts will earn it for you.

That said. 3 days?! That's not a downswing. That's a pimple on the nose of a downswing. I still have a good 3 day suck fest at least once a month. I've been playing for close to 3 years now, have been a consistent winner for 2 3/4 years on any limit up to 30-60.

Starting on Dec 3 2005 until the first week of January I had a real downswing. 130 BBs at 30-60 78 BBs at 10-20 and another 40 or so at 5-10 until the tide turned. Do the math, I was decently funded for 30-60 but I stayed too long there and by the time the disaster was over my online BR was well and truly screwed. I lost $2400 on 3 hands alone and I held the exact same thing each time AA A99. The exact same hand 3 days running and I lost all 3 times (to quad 9s. Out of that 35 day period I was down 31 days.

My standard for a week is well up 4 days, BE 1 day down 1 day.

Coincidentally my downswing started the day after I cashed 18k for the home repairs and X'mas.

[imashyboi]

So we agree that whenever we cashout on Party bad swings always happen. Let me edit that, not always but it does happen majority of the time. I think I'm ready to actually play serious hold'em and will probably deposit 500bb and start playing $5/10 for a living. I'm probably going to move up everytime I have 500bb to cover the swings. After playing $5/10 I notice there are TONS of weak players still in this game that dones't understand the concept. They tend to play weak hands out of position HOPING to get lucky with the flop. I always tell myself that only happens so many times and once your luck runs out you'll be giving those back to me.

[caz]

imashy. Not that this hasn't been said before, but Party Poker is a company worth billions that has nothing to gain and everything to lose by cheating. Do you actually think they hire people to track those that cashout and hand them extra bad beats?

Good luck in a poker career. I I can't speak from experiance, but Im sure other pro players will tell you that its a very stressfull career at times.

[imashyboi]

I'm not saying that their cheating players all I'm saying is whenever you cashout on Party bad swings does happen. As I said previously, I'm not thinking about the "cashout curse" because my goal in poker is to play solid all the way.

The swings does affect the way you play though because times that you think your ahead ends up being the opposite. Check my post on the KK vs. Tag and you'll see what I'm talking about.

[CaseS87]

the hand sample you have is way way way to small. 20k is too small of a sample to determine if you are a winner or not. if you really plan on playing professionally you should try to play 2-3x as many hands as this in one day. 5/10 is definately full of terrible players, even those who appear to be good based on pf stats are in fact terrible.

and also, when you cash out mony, you lose just as often as normally.

"I'm not saying that their cheating players all I'm saying is whenever you cashout on Party bad swings does happen."

if "bad swings" happened whenever you cashed out party poker would in fact be cheating the players.

[DonC]

Actually I haven't seen a corrollation (sp?) (I haven't slept in a long time) between my cashouts and having a bad spell I cashout at the beginning of each month. This is my first down month in 33 months. Ended down close to $$$ for the month. I had to look at big picture though and see that I was simply giving back a reasonably minor percentage of earnings which had been beautifully excessive over the prior 3 months. This mentality did help me grind my way through but I was getting pretty nervous towards the end. Can't help but let that little thought creep into my head "were the last 33 months a fluke and this the new reality?"

Running my hands for the month through EVtester my Actual Value stats were much lower than EV for every single category. If you are not familiar with the software it takes your hand histories and compares what you actually hit to what you should on average hit. The results from this analysis said I was very unlucky with my cards for the month.

But I was due. I know I know cards don't have a memory but over a large enough sample they tend towards standard EV. Well, for the 3 months leading up to Dec 3 I had an unending rush. I was hitting everything. Best 3 months of my career by a factor of 3. This messed with my head the way a downturn can. I got to the point where I seeing 32-33% of the flops and my W$SD was still up around 70%. In this light I can look at December as a correction.

I did take it as a learning experience and have improved my game as a result. I've gotten back to basics. I've also stubbornly decided that I would not redeposit $ so I have rebuilt what I had left and have decided to hang out at 5-10 for a month month 1/2.

Oh rambling now.

Point is. Imashyboi as long as your downturns don't threaten the health of your bankroll shrug 'em off. BUT if you drop below that magical BB quantity ??? 200-300-1000? Whatever you have budgeted for yourself just drop down a level and patiently rebuild. My rule is I will play from 300 down to 200 Big Bets and if I drop below I drop a level. Its all about staying alive. I am too old to get a real job. I've been retired from real work for 9 years now and the thought of having to get a job to rebuild scares the living hell out of me.

[TaggedYa]

What is this EVtester and where can I get it? Tks

TaggedYa

[TaggedYa]

Disregard I found it with google. Tks

TaggedYa

[DonC]

[ QUOTE ]
What is this EVtester and where can I get it? Tks

TaggedYa

[/ QUOTE ]

EVtester.com

This is not a analytical tool like Poker Tracker. It is a pretty simple program that takes the hands you received and compares your hand to very large sample of hands and then compares your hands to statistical averages. i.e. On average AK hits the flop 32.4% of the time (EV) What I actually experienced during the period in question 21% (AV) So my luck factor with AK is down. One tidbit: at one point in my month from hell I went 22 4 flushes without hitting. I should have completed 6 or 7. none.

Doesn't offer much other than some psychological comfort that the cards really weren't with you.