Was it dumb of me to gamble on this draw?

KSOT · #1 01-25-2007, 08:19 PM

Nut flush draw and gut shot straight draw against 2 bigger stacks than mine that I figured would both put their money in. I figured I would be getting 2 to 1 on a better than 2 to 1 draw. But now I'm having second thoughts about my last flop call. My turn call is unquestionable IMO. What do you think?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($212.50)
Hero ($93.35)
CO ($146.30)
Button ($70.90)
SB ($22)
BB ($105.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls $1, CO calls $1, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $3, Hero calls $3, CO raises to $6, SB folds, BB raises to $24, Hero calls $21, CO calls $18.

Turn: ($76) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets $73, Hero calls $68.35 (All-In), CO calls $73.

River: ($290.35) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
BB bets $7.4 (All-In), CO calls $7.40.

Final Pot: $305.15

Results in white below: 
BB has Kd 6s 2s Kh (three of a kind, kings).
CO has Tc Td 8c Ad (A flush, queen high).
Hero has a worthless straight.

Outcome: CO wins $305.15.

donkeykong2 · #2 01-25-2007, 08:49 PM

hmmm i ll try a little math here:
u probably flop the nuts on the turn in about 20-25% of the time. u should then be able to get it in vs one opponent for a pot of 200, your equity is about 70% then... 140. this would be a profit of 50 *22%=11 for the other 78% you have 0 or close to zero equity on the turn -21*78%=-17.
so it suckz if only one opponent calls with a set. if both call u might be a little better of, but u will probably not get 2 calls if the flush card comes on the turn. so a fold is good i think without more math (annoyed myself with it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])...if co decides to shove over bb on the flop your prly not too well of as well.

iggymcfly · #3 01-25-2007, 09:48 PM

Your math is pretty convoluted, so I'm not sure exactly what's wrong with it. However, this is a very good spot for hero. His equity's great against two sets, and pretty decent against one, especially if the third player folds blockers. The only kinda bad spot is against a wrap and a set, but even then, hero has the ability to fold to a turn board pair, so his long-term equity is a little better than it would appear.

Anyway, in the given situation, hero's 40% to win the hand on the flop. If he hits his heart on the turn, he likely gets called by both opponents for another $68 and definitely gets called by at least one. If he hits a queen on the turn, it's a similar spot. In this case, hero gets the rest of his money in with a 78% chance of winning. If villian hits his best card meanwhile, hero can safely fold.

On a blank turn, hero's about 27% and still gains a little equity from calling the turn versus folding in a three-way pot. On the actual turn card, hero's 33% to win three-ways and has an equal share of the dead money in the pot.

Cliff notes: Hero played the hand correctly. He had the right odds to call on all streets and a favorable situation by being able to fold some bad turns.

Jamma · #4 01-25-2007, 10:15 PM

You need CO to stay in the pot for the last flop call to be any good. What does his minraise mean? If he just wanted to find out if his hand was good and has some thoughts about folding, you're not getting the right price.
You're about 1:3 to make your hand on the turn. When CO calls you're getting about 5:2 on your call, if he folds you're only getting 2:1. *edit* you will certainly have enough implied odds in a threeway, not so sure if CO folds

Soo I believe the flop is a *10 seconds to act* hero did not respond in time and was folded [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. The turn call is obviously unquestionable =]

Aisthesis · #5 01-26-2007, 03:01 AM

I don't think it's worth it calling the $21. Best case scenario, I suppose would be that you're up against just 2 sets or set and top 2 with no hearts. But I think CO has something like QJ with some hearts that block your flush.

I agree that if you make it to the turn, you have to see the river.

donkeykong2 · #6 01-26-2007, 10:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, in the given situation, hero's 40% to win the hand on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i m pretty sure this is too optimistic vs two opponents. he is most likely around 30-35 %. two sets would be best of course, but the minraise doesnt look like one.

RoundTower · #7 01-26-2007, 11:01 AM

I really don't like folding this kind of draw ever.

iggymcfly · #8 01-26-2007, 06:26 PM

I agree that against a typical range three ways, it's more like 30-35% But how does that make this a fold? We have the right odds to call and a chance to improve our long-term equity by folding a paired board. Heads-up against a set, we're 37%, and if we're heads-up, it's probably because CO folded cards that are blockers on the BB filling up. Actually, if I was hero, I probably would have repotted the flop to begin with in position, but I don't find a fold here ever.

Aisthesis · #9 01-26-2007, 07:56 PM

Well, we're really only talking about the flop here, as I think everyone agrees that the turn is an easy call.

You have 8 flush outs against a set, but that goes down to only 6 if CO has 2 flush cards. That's not entirely a bad thing if you know CO is in the hand because it gives you better implied odds (which increase with position, which you don't have on the relevant player) if there's going to be sufficient stack-depth to take advantage of that fact.

Anyhow, you have 8 outs (throwing in 2 queens--I'm assuming CO also has one) with 41 "unknown" cards on that theory, and you don't block any boating outs with any pair. That case puts it at about 4:1 for you on the flop call.

I think that's most likely what we're looking at here.

I would probably have raised (pot) when the action got to me on the flop the first time, though. Critical on draws like this imo is creating fold equity. I'd raise KK the same way there, and there's no reason why BB of all people should have that hand. Given the subsequent action, I figure that actually is what he has, but you don't know that when the action first gets to you.

donkeykong2 · #10 01-26-2007, 07:57 PM

i think the problem your odds are only good if we see the river or get it all in 3 ways against the right cards now. if we have a psb left on the turn we basicly lose almost any equity in the hand if we dont hit, same happens to villains if we hit, but we only hit 20-25% of the turns. i dont think either calling or folding is a significant mistake here though.