JJ +EV Push?

Robbie01 · #1 12-11-2006, 08:49 PM

$10 NLH tourney on stars, i am top 20 in chips early on.

i think im good here only because both villains seem like donks [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] am i really up against a set here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 (t2620)
CO (t2805)
Button (t2830)
SB (t2670)
Hero (t6595)
UTG (t1390)
UTG+1 (t2130)
MP1 (t3390)
MP2 (t2550)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls t30, 2 folds, Button calls t30, SB completes, Hero raises to t150, MP2 calls t120, Button calls t120, SB folds.

Flop: (t480) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t300, MP2 calls t300, Button raises to t720, Hero raises to t6445

themobfather · #2 12-11-2006, 08:53 PM

this is fine

kniper · #3 12-11-2006, 08:57 PM

no, save the 420 and fold. def a set. for sure. no doubt about it.

Robbie01 · #4 12-11-2006, 08:59 PM

Close niper he had 9 10 suited

Jamma · #5 12-11-2006, 09:33 PM

donk or not, button offers you 4.5-1 odds - he's thinks he has the best hand. This after he saw you making a good size value bet and a call after that. Weak players very frequently limp but still call a big raise with PPs or suited connectors - more often than not you'll be up against a set, two pair or possibly just a flush and/or str draw

Here when the action is back to you, MP2 is active behind you.. He already called you so he has to have some kind of hand, could be anything from Axd to a set.

so all in all, with the combined strength they have showed, most of the time either of them is going to call you with a better hand.

However if they hadn't limp-called preflop, I'd like the push more - That would add some second best hands in their range they might willing to stack off with, like 99 and TT

themobfather · #6 12-11-2006, 10:18 PM

see I told you it was fine

Jamma · #7 12-11-2006, 10:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
see I told you it was fine

[/ QUOTE ]

That's result oriented.. you could very well be looking at the best case scenario.

Even so, JJ is 50/50 against 9dTd and that means the villain cant make a mistake getting his chips in here. However, if you had known he had an OESFD, your right move would be to see the turn before putting more chips in the middle.

themobfather · #8 12-11-2006, 11:27 PM

no I wasn't being results oriented, I thought it was fine before he posted what the guy had. Early in a low buyin tourny players are going to stack off so light here. any 8, any flush draw, 9T,56,96, 99,TT, maybe even a 7 will probly stack off to you here. You're really overestimating your opponents if you think this is a set 100% of the time in the 2nd round of a low buyin tournament.

durkahdurkah · #9 12-12-2006, 10:12 AM

If you KNEW that he had T9s here, your best move is of course to wait for the turn to get your chips in the center, but there is no way you can narrow his range to that. Overall, against a field as weak as the typical low buyin tourney, the correct play is to just push with your overpair here. You'll take your lumps, but overall it's very much +EV, and against a typical low limit donk's range, it's likely the most +EV play.