**** ALDS GAME 4 Tribe/Yanks (Byrd vs. Wang)****

[vhawk01]

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So if Byrd>CC and CC>Carmona(Game 5) then why isn't that optimal?

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because cc/carmona > byrd/cc?

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How can that be the case though? If Byrd>CC, then that means that Carmona must be >>CC. So why don't you just start him in Game 5?

What you are basically saying is use up CC so that you don't have any excuse not to play Carmona in Game 5. Take the -EV so that you don't have to tell the fat kid he can't play on Wednesday.

[vhawk01]

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Because winning tonight's game may not be optimal for winning a WS? And perhaps most managers are retarded?

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Ok, THAT I can see. If we are taking into consideration the ALCS, then fine, more complicated analysis makes sense and we can get some weird results. But taking the ALDS in a vacuum, I don't see how it can make sense to start CC is Byrd is better.

[zer0]

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So if Byrd>CC and CC>Carmona(Game 5) then why isn't that optimal?

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because cc/carmona > byrd/cc?

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How can that be the case though? If Byrd>CC, then that means that Carmona must be >>CC. So why don't you just start him in Game 5?

What you are basically saying is use up CC so that you don't have any excuse not to play Carmona in Game 5. Take the -EV so that you don't have to tell the fat kid he can't play on Wednesday.

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i don't really know why byrd is > cc in the first place, so i can't answer further

[CharlieDontSurf]

did CC throw a lot of pitches in game 1?

[Victor]

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I am rooting for the Yankees now. Pitching Byrd just reeks of looking forward to the ALCS.

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i dont think this is the case, mainly bc if cc starts tonight he can still pitch game 2 in boston.

[vhawk01]

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So if Byrd>CC and CC>Carmona(Game 5) then why isn't that optimal?

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because cc/carmona > byrd/cc?

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How can that be the case though? If Byrd>CC, then that means that Carmona must be >>CC. So why don't you just start him in Game 5?

What you are basically saying is use up CC so that you don't have any excuse not to play Carmona in Game 5. Take the -EV so that you don't have to tell the fat kid he can't play on Wednesday.

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i don't really know why byrd is > cc in the first place, so i can't answer further

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Yeah, this was all based on that premise. And I think that was based on him being fully rested and 3 days rest having a HORRIBLE track record. If CC>Byrd in Game 4 then obv go CC, Carmona.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

SP's used to going on 4 or 5 days rest have a pretty bad track record when moved to 3. (this is in recent playoff history). this must also be especially true when facing the #1 offense in the league.

they probably think fully rested Byrd is roughly equal to CC; if Cleveland wins then an extra rested CC pitches game 1 of the ALCS, which is a big +. if not then a regular rested CC gets to pitch the deciding game at home. the added bonus being that Carmona would also be available in a pinch in game 5.

[34TheTruth34]

Pitching Byrd today isn't horrible because the Indians only have to win one game. If they were down 2-1 here, they would pitch CC short tonight and Fausto game 5 obv.

Absolute worst case scenario tonight for the Indians: Byrd goes out and gets shelled immediately. OK, that's fine, rest the rest of your staff and come back game 5 with CC, Fausto, and the Rafaels, all of whom will be well rested.

Plus, Byrd may actually go out and win tonight. If he does that, then they are really set up for the ALCS and could pitch the big two 5 times in 7 games.

So like I was saying earlier: pitching CC tonight gives them the best chance to win a game (and both games), while pitching Byrd tonight gives them the best chance to win game 5. And all they have to do is win one.

[EMc]

BTW who else is going tonihgt?

[Matt Williams]

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did CC throw a lot of pitches in game 1?

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118 pitches in 5 innings. He constantly had runners on base.