Difference Between Poker and the Stock Market

[ArturiusX]

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I would consider myself an authority on the daytrading business,as my firm had 20+ locations/branches around the country at one time,peaking a few years ago.The decline in # of DT'ers and/or BROKE day traders was PROOF in itself to the fact that VERY few INDIVDUALS (again I said INDIVIDUALS,not institutions or some big funds)make money over time DT'ing
We made a FORTUNE from their commissions alone,and the fact that I just recently retired comfortably,from just this speciality niche' in the market alone,substantiates 90% of my argument

You in no way,shape,or form understand the BUSINESS side of this,and have NO idea what you are talking about in this regard...so its a waste of time discussing this with you any further.

Based on your highly defensive stance with NO substance/proof to back up your side.. leads me to beleive you are one of the many caught up in this losing battle being a DT yourself that I encounterd throughout my carreer.
Ignorance on this subject,will be your worst enemy. YOU are the one caught up in fallacies....I laughed all the way to the bank at these degenerate gambling fools.They come and go...but the majority go BROKE!

As I said prove me wrong,with some valid data/stats,instead of just shootong your mouth off in an arena you are clueless about.
Your recent posts about the 90',80's...and now 70's mentality are getting pretty lame now as well

BTW..have you had ANY experience as a BD principle/owner in the daytrading field to even justify your ridiculous rants?

GL,
Stephen

*** once again these posts were intended to open the eyes/enlighten/help the forum to the downsides and pifalls of the daytrading world,from a 15+ year professional point of view!

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I don't give a [censored] who you are. Its completely irrelevant. My point is, I could provide you with all the data you need. I could give you day to day analysis of what I'm thinking, what trades I'm making, and show I'm a proven winner. I could dissect all the underlying theory behind my thinking, I could show you why the market will balance, I can show you how I know what the participants are thinking, and which ones are starting to shift. I could do it all. Which is my point, even if I did it, I still won't convince you. You'll blame it on luck.

Large firms dealing in large positions may control the market, but they have an overt weakness; they too will be pouched if their agenda is to obvious. You have 500 YM contracts to sell, its never as simple as pressing a button. How do they react to different movements? How do they exploit market tendencies in order to offload these positions in a hush hush way? Day trading is chess. You look for an opportunity. You crunch through the data, you look at everything through context, you make a high probability decisions based on your risk/return for a trade. Then you have the balls to press the button, irrespective of how bad or how good any previous trades have gone.

What if I had a way of looking at the market that would allow me to decode what the major market participants are thinking. What moves they're trying to make. What they really believe, beyond the CNBC hype. What if, using a series of programs, I could use my own brain to decode the situation, and make a trade which would result in a 70%+ success rate, based on how the large market participants are playing the game. What if, through looking at nothing but volume flow numbers for the last 5 years, every single market day, I've developed a knack for recognizing anomalies that exist.

I don't base anything on hunches or guesses. Most day traders are like poker players who only look at their hole cards, and the strength of their hand. They might think about relative strength occasionally, when the flush card comes, or some other event. I think beyond it, I look at what the guys with the money are thinking. I corner them, and I ride them. I can hide my positions, and quickly exit and everyones none the wiser. That is my advantage, and thats the advantage I use.

You cite that almost all day traders bust. No doubt. Why can't I be in the minority? Also, by the way, why all the attitude? I presented theory, and you answered none. You've run a great sales organisation, no doubt.

Also, my experience is irrelevant, not because its non-existant, but because I'm putting forth theory and reason, and you're acting like a dogmatic follower. Your cite of people failing is a logic fallacy. Would you like me to point out which one?

[ArturiusX]

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Daytrading for me would be like sitting in front of a giant slot machine with flashing red & green arrows. I'd much prefer getting my data EOD to peruse over with a cup of tea, less pressure, and more time.

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And you play poker? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[stephenNUTS]

Also, my experience is irrelevant, not because its non-existant, but because I'm putting forth theory and reason, and you're acting like a dogmatic follower. Your cite of people failing is a logic fallacy. Would you like me to point out which one? my experience is irrelevant, not because its non-existant, but because I'm putting forth theory and reason

Why are you two SO insistant?

You just answered your own questions...as "YES IT IS IN THEORY" that it is profitable over time.It also is in theory I could survive a jump from a 50 story building...but the consequences/results are highly unfavorable to me

Why would someone trying to HELP,having been in this business for 15+ years that has NEVER seen any more than a handful of DT'ers make any decent $$$$,be called a liar or mis-leading?

Being hit with this these "in theory" responses are a bunch of BS,so why not back up your case with cold hard facts/data/P+L .....thus proving me wrong?

Your last sentance sums it up..."my experience is irrelevent",most likely because it is either negligible or NON-existent

You sound like some computer geek/nerd about to get his MBA,doctorate,.... trying "prove" your thoery with a bunch of computer strategy babble....GOOD LUCK

How old are you BTW,and how long you been daytrading to support your "theories"(this is not some thesis for Christs sake)?

What platform do you use?

Who do you clear through?

Do you have access to Level lll by any chance(or are you using E-trades Level ll...lol?


Are you using a T-1 or T-3 line (as speed is EVERYTHING in intra-day trading)....or are you using a cable modem or better yet DSL?

What sqwawk do you subscribe to,to hear your "streaming news"....as I am SURE you cant overcome the "miniscule costs as you put it",nor have access to the almost $1000 per desk/monthly Bloomie costs.I am not even sure they sell to non-trading desks anymore?

And again quoting you..."i could prove what I am thinking"...WTF is that supposed mean?

Prove to me in $$$$$DOLLAR GAINS...not the thinking of "I shoulda,woulda,coulda,type trading" or some "paper trade" theory that works just like that..ON PAPER

They certainly dont work when introduced into the REAL TIME bid/ask of the market over time.

The MM's are there to make money my friend...the easiest pickings ARE the DT'ers!

I'll start with these basics ....before I really make you look a fool,side stepping EVERY direct question you have put forth with verbal non-sense?

GEEEEZ..you are thick headed!

[CrushinFelt]

I hate all the CAPS in this THREAD. ffs
Also, equities are for pussies.

The main reason people lose (and the reason it's different from poker) is because there's no way to practice. Any simulated daytrading mechanism isn't going to fully feel and act like the market. It's not like poker where you can start at .5/1 and move up to 1/2 and 2/4 and 3/6 and 5/10. You're thrown into 200/400 right off the bat.

And the only reason daytraders can go broke is if they overextend their bankroll (or start off with one that is too small). $5,000 and a terminal isn't going to get you started. You need much more than that AND you have to have the bankroll to facilitate the losses you're obviously goig to take during your first foray into daytrading. The morons that went broke were the cowboys who paid no attn to bankroll management.

So congratulations Stephen, you played the role of PokerStars and made sick rake (i'm sincere, it's pretty cool). But what you're implying is that in the end the only ones that survive are the Ivey, Antonius, etc. of the world and that only the occasional Jman can come in and play for real (not just be a two-buyin donator). It's true for the most part that the B/Ds will always be dominating the game. But there's definitely room for people with bankroll management to build their "daytrading book".

[stephenNUTS]

Comparing poker to daytrading is the same as saying would you rather be the dealer or the player in a game of Blackjack,or the ole' saying "you can beat a horse race,but you cant beat the races"?

I would rather be the house in any case,where the odds are extremely stacked against you,such as in DT'ing

Its a very simple understanding...and if these "theorists" would stop with all the BS,and do the math in real life with real money,they would understand.

But its more likely their pencils are at more risk ,than their "theoretical" bankrolls IMO

SF

*** and yes Ivey,PA,Jman28,sbrugby and a few others are that 5% I talk about that can win...but for 90% of DT'ers its a losing game.In fact I would say it EASIER to consistantly win at poker vs daytrading for many people, if they incorporate game selection,good disciplines,BR management,deal with the emotional swings/not tilting,etc.

A pefect example would be ..would you sit sown in a HS full-ring poker game with 9 Phil Iveys...no I would say?

Well an individual daytrader is facing that each and every day vs.the MM's/big boys/hedge funds with bottomless pit pockets/option traders that have direct ties to the direction of any market,etc?

[Foghatlive]

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Daytrading for me would be like sitting in front of a giant slot machine with flashing red & green arrows. I'd much prefer getting my data EOD to peruse over with a cup of tea, less pressure, and more time.

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And you play poker? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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The time factor is different in poker. Even if you are playing at a table with someone with a faster system/line than yours, you still get the same opportunity to make your bet.

From the way daytrading has been described in this thread, it seems as though the small investor is in a race to get his bet in against pros with faster systems.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, my experience is irrelevant, not because its non-existant, but because I'm putting forth theory and reason, and you're acting like a dogmatic follower. Your cite of people failing is a logic fallacy. Would you like me to point out which one? my experience is irrelevant, not because its non-existant, but because I'm putting forth theory and reason

Why are you two SO insistant?

You just answered your own questions...as "YES IT IS IN THEORY" that it is profitable over time.It also is in theory I could survive a jump from a 50 story building...but the consequences/results are highly unfavorable to me

Why would someone trying to HELP,having been in this business for 15+ years that has NEVER seen any more than a handful of DT'ers make any decent $$$$,be called a liar or mis-leading?

Being hit with this these "in theory" responses are a bunch of BS,so why not back up your case with cold hard facts/data/P+L .....thus proving me wrong?

Your last sentance sums it up..."my experience is irrelevent",most likely because it is either negligible or NON-existent

You sound like some computer geek/nerd about to get his MBA,doctorate,.... trying "prove" your thoery with a bunch of computer strategy babble....GOOD LUCK

How old are you BTW,and how long you been daytrading to support your "theories"(this is not some thesis for Christs sake)?

What platform do you use?

Who do you clear through?

Do you have access to Level lll by any chance(or are you using E-trades Level ll...lol?


Are you using a T-1 or T-3 line (as speed is EVERYTHING in intra-day trading)....or are you using a cable modem or better yet DSL?

What sqwawk do you subscribe to,to hear your "streaming news"....as I am SURE you cant overcome the "miniscule costs as you put it",nor have access to the almost $1000 per desk/monthly Bloomie costs.I am not even sure they sell to non-trading desks anymore?

And again quoting you..."i could prove what I am thinking"...WTF is that supposed mean?

Prove to me in $$$$$DOLLAR GAINS...not the thinking of "I shoulda,woulda,coulda,type trading" or some "paper trade" theory that works just like that..ON PAPER

They certainly dont work when introduced into the REAL TIME bid/ask of the market over time.

The MM's are there to make money my friend...the easiest pickings ARE the DT'ers!

I'll start with these basics ....before I really make you look a fool,side stepping EVERY direct question you have put forth with verbal non-sense?

GEEEEZ..you are thick headed!

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You should work on your grammar and sentence structure. It gives me, and probably other people, quite a headache.

Using your building jumping analogy, I'd crunch the numbers to do with the physics, I'd evaluate the environment, and I'd make assessment of the risk vs reward. If a rich backer told me I could have 10 million dollars, and using my system I determined that I'd survive with only two broken legs and a broken hip, giving me 4 weeks in hospital + a $30000 medical bill, its in my best interests to take the jump. Of course, your analogy is silly, because we're throwing death into the equation. The worst I can lose in trading is my initial input, assuming I'm liquidated if a margin call comes around.

I'm 24, I've been working in banking and for different firms since I graduated high school, one gig was with a trading firm part time while I was at university. After I graduated, I moved to a bank, I day traded part time on the side (as an Australian, the market opens at 11:30pm, so I could trade the open and still get a good nights rest). I pretty much immerse myself in all the mechanics.

At the moment for a platform, I use esignal, with some nicely coded scripts from a CS friend of mine. I'm learning java as we speak, hopefully I can start adding some of my own flair to the programming instead of outsourcing [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I also use a program called marketdelta, which is a beautiful volume analysis software package. At first, it was information overload, but after tweaking the program I've found it to be very powerful, especially when you give it a specific task.

I don't use e-trade, I use mirus futures as my broker. I don't trade stocks, only futures.

I use a 2mb connection with a back up dsl line. Speed however, isn't everything for my style of trading. I don't work the spreads. I usually have a 10-20 second window with my trades, I find.

I just get my news from yahoo (just a list of economic data coming out). I read about 20 blogs a day, getting a feel for different news coming out. My system doesn't really have anything to do with news though. I just make sure I'm not blindsided by some economic announcement while I'm taking a position.

Bid/ask spread is very small for index futures. I'm not sure why beating the spread would be an issue, since the market is so liquid (most of the reason why I trade it).

Also, you seem very very angry. I've done nothing but answer a variety of questions. I could post my trades real time to you, show you my entry, exits and profits for the day. Would that prove it to you? Which is exactly my point; anything I do would just be written off as 'luck'. I could make a movie of my trading, and it'd be irrelevant to changing your views.

By the way, your views that day traders don't make money because you were in a firm that saw so many bust is a fallacy. Fallacy of the Consequent, and the fallacy of appeal to probability.

1. Observed Day traders play the market
2. Observed Day traders lose money
3. Therefore, all day traders must lose money.

The fact that you haven't even asked me anything remotely to do with my system (even though I gave you enough subtle hints), pretty much proves that you're just an outsider who hasn't really done any research into anything, apart from observed statistics. You can not dispute this.

[pig4bill]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, my experience is irrelevant, not because its non-existant, but because I'm putting forth theory and reason, and you're acting like a dogmatic follower. Your cite of people failing is a logic fallacy. Would you like me to point out which one? my experience is irrelevant, not because its non-existant, but because I'm putting forth theory and reason

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LOL, at least you admit you have no experience. Now admit that you're not an expert on the subject because you have no experience in it.

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Why would someone trying to HELP,having been in this business for 15+ years that has NEVER seen any more than a handful of DT'ers make any decent $$$$,be called a liar or mis-leading?

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Because you have no idea what you are talking about. You think that because you ran one BD, ten years ago, that every customer of every BD would fail now.

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Being hit with this these "in theory" responses are a bunch of BS,so why not back up your case with cold hard facts/data/P+L .....thus proving me wrong?

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Where are your cold hard facts? Stamping your feet and screaming don't count.

BTW, I had trading buddies in the late 90's that I watched daytrade in realtime, on crappy Datek web platforms, average from 10 to 15 points a day at 1000 shares per trade. Do the math sport, that's over $2 1/2 million a year. They weren't doing it at some rip-off daytrading house like yours either, they were doing it at home, in their jammies.

[GittyUP]

I have been doing quite some research for many months now with the intention of getting in to Daytrading. I can see both sides you guys are taking and I think you both are right. DISCLAIMER:This comes from someone who has no personal experience day trading but has researched the subject from a highly academic angle including interviews from experienced daytraders. Also this is mostly a generic theory post not a technical/concrete post.

Daytrading takes a lot of time to learn. You can never learn enough. You will learn everyday. Most of this learning has to do with what AtruriusX has referred to when he mentioned playing off your very large opponents moves. As a small DTer you act like a an undetected leech. Taking small profits from the large actions of the MM. Large MM do not actively shut you out of the market as was referred above "are they going to let you sell at 4:30 for a profit.." Yes they may may moves on the market in order to take advantage or move the days positions but if you anticipate this action then you are one level of thinking above the market. This is not easy to do, but possible.

Bankroll management is more important then in poker. Variance is higher then poker. In poker you have maybe 3-4 levels of thinking in any given hand. In the market you have many many "levels of thinking". It is not so much important to be on a "higher level" but know the relative distribution of the levels. the expected reaction too this expected distribution by the MM and so on. It is obviously very complex but you get the idea. I believe it is possible to have an edge if your a talented daytrader. Once again to be considered talented is only a few %.

Now learning to do this properly and with consistency is a VERY difficult thing to do. Much as trying to go play HS poker with the best and win over the long run. Is it impossible? No. difficult? Yes. There is a reason that the estimates of winning poker players numbers in the few % points (<5% maybe...) I would think that DT's who make money would be along a similar distribution. A very select few % actually make money and can beat the commissions.

If daytrading profitably was COMPLETELY a fantasy it would not exist today.

And for what its worth the commissions/realtick charges are actually not that large. ~60 trades a month and your broker wont charge you for realtick ($300 normally) The commissions are miniscule if your daytrading in a profitable way similar to how rake doesn't really make or break a winning players bankroll direction long term (always goes up baby!)

My post Thesis: It is possible but very, very difficult to be successful, the benefits though reward this talent.

[stephenNUTS]

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[ QUOTE ]
Also, my experience is irrelevant, not because its non-existant, but because I'm putting forth theory and reason, and you're acting like a dogmatic follower. Your cite of people failing is a logic fallacy. Would you like me to point out which one? my experience is irrelevant, not because its non-existant, but because I'm putting forth theory and reason

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LOL, at least you admit you have no experience. Now admit that you're not an expert on the subject because you have no experience in it.

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Why would someone trying to HELP,having been in this business for 15+ years that has NEVER seen any more than a handful of DT'ers make any decent $$$$,be called a liar or mis-leading?

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Because you have no idea what you are talking about. You think that because you ran one BD, ten years ago, that every customer of every BD would fail now.

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Being hit with this these "in theory" responses are a bunch of BS,so why not back up your case with cold hard facts/data/P+L .....thus proving me wrong?

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Where are your cold hard facts? Stamping your feet and screaming don't count.

BTW, I had trading buddies in the late 90's that I watched daytrade in realtime, on crappy Datek web platforms, average from 10 to 15 points a day at 1000 shares per trade. Do the math sport, that's over $2 1/2 million a year. They weren't doing it at some rip-off daytrading house like yours either, they were doing it at home, in their jammies.

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I was quoting YOU at the top JACKASZ!
This debate is over

GEEEZ

*** unless you back up your claims with some data,and a profitable P+L over a minmum of a few yrs...I am done wasting my time