pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]

[Double Eagle]

Here's my filtered view. I've decided to steal more blinds.

[Noam Chomsky]

Ok, I've pretty much thought of this thing in the same way as Barrin etc. I thought it was just a way to make people feel better about their play by focusing on how they run rather than how they play, thus never actually improving. Dave and a couple of others have me rethinking that so I downloaded this yesterday. I suck at uploading images but what if anything can be learned from these:

All hands:

[image][/image]

With Eagle's recommended filter:
[image][/image]

I'm pretty sure this means I fire too many second barrels, right?:

[image][/image]

[Double Eagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I've pretty much thought of this thing in the same way as Barrin etc. I thought it was just a way to make people feel better about their play by focusing on how they run rather than how they play, thus never actually improving. Dave and a couple of others have me rethinking that so I downloaded this yesterday. I suck at uploading images but what if anything can be learned from these:

All hands:

[image][/image]

With Eagle's recommended filter:
[image][/image]

I'm pretty sure this means I fire too many second barrels, right?:

[image][/image]

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't really make judgements on any of this data without context. Remember that the hands you are seeing in the last bar chart are only those that go to showdown, so if you double barrel more than your value bets get called (which is pretty intuitive if you are at all aggressive) this is not surprising. To contextualize this, filter for hands where you bet raise preflop, bet the flop and bet the turn to see whether you are losing money overall in these spots.

[carnivalhobo]

heres my filtered one

[Double Eagle]

Here's a filter for hands where I raise preflop, bet the flop and turn with less than top pair. I'm marginally profitable in these spots it turns out, which surprises me.

[Double Eagle]

[ QUOTE ]
heres my filtered one



[/ QUOTE ]

Yikes you are running stinkybad lately.

[tannenj]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
heres my filtered one



[/ QUOTE ]

Yikes you are running stinkybad lately.

[/ QUOTE ]

but does the program take into account whether the user is a lagfish? pretty sure carnivalhobo is a lagfish.

[Double Eagle]

[ QUOTE ]


but does the program take into account whether the user is a lagfish? pretty sure carnivalhobo is a lagfish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether he is or not, that 400 hand stretch around hand 2600 was gross.

[Noam Chomsky]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a filter for hands where I raise preflop, bet the flop and turn with less than top pair. I'm marginally profitable in these spots it turns out, which surprises me.




[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, I'm losing a bit here. It's all 100nl so I guess that makes sense. I'm only marginally losing so I guess in the long run it's made up for image with regulars and things like that.

[SilentNoise]

My computer is really slow, i tried doing it for all of my 240K hands at 200nl, but it kept crashing saying there is no data, claiming that pt is importing while loading the database..which it wasn't. it took about an hour, but i managed to do it for all of my hands since august. mid august onwards i played a TONNE since i hardly played at all previously. august onwards really hurt me winrate, so i thought id post some graphs here to see if people could confirm some of the leaks i think ive found.

I followed Double Eagle's suggested filters, with some tweaked ones of my own.

Here is a graph of my last 70k hands at 200nl/stars with no filter:

Im not an expert on understanding these graphs, but from this thread it seems like if your green line is less than your blue line, you are losing in pots which dont go to showdown. this probably implies im getting outplayed in lots of small pots?

Here is a graph with my pots which are less than 30BB.

seems like i am getting crushed in small pots then...i guess these are usually when i call with pocket pairs preflop and fold to cbets or raise preflop myself and flop nothing and get my cbets played back at. this has always been a suspicion of mine..that my cbets dont work.

Here is a graph of my pots which are between 30BB and 50BB:

well atleast in the medium sized pots im not losing, which is expected from a marginal winner i guess. but my green line is still below the blue line. so does this suggest that in these medium sized pots im still losing when not going to showdown, which would suggest im getting outplayed in these pots sometimes?

Here is a graph of my pots which are 50BB or more

still losing in hands w/out showdown ...gettinng bluffed off the best hand too often?

Heres a graph of where i raise preflop, and flop nothing (a high card)

WOW. this really shows that my cbets aren't working right? i thought the whole point of raising with a wide range was to pickup all these pots even when you flop nothing with a cbet?! thing is i do find my cbets dont work much...and at 200nl the last few months ive been game selecting quite heavily i think (doesn't show in my winrate unfortunately [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] ) ..so maybe its a good thing that i cant win these pots when i flop nothing? because that would imply people actually know how to fold? (the kind of games i DONT want to be playing in?) this realllly surprises me. im either;
i) not playing aggro enough when i flop nothing
ii)doing the right thing by not cbetting vs calling stations...letting them have the smallish pots when i dont flop anything ...and then stacking them later on?

Heres a graph of where i raise preflop, and flop second pair or a weak pair.

seems like i might aswell not have these hands at all. not winning anything from them? maybe im taking these marginal hands to showdown too much instead of turning them into bluffs to bluff out better hands?

Heres a graph of where i raise preflop, and flop top pair weak kicker, tptk or an overpair.

atlast, the greenline is above the blueline somewhere. is that as obvious as it should be though? because sometimes you are going to cbet with top pair/overpair and not get called, which adds to your total profits but not your showdown profits?


so potential leaks ive found are:
- not winning enough in pots that dont go to showdown
- getting owned in small pots
- getting owned when i raise and flop nothing
- not making the most of flopping second pair / weak pair
- not winning enough medium size pots without showdown.