Donkey Test

[gedanken]

This is a very straightforward "all-in preflop equity" question. Shorter than the other players, we have very little fold equity, so we can expect that our shove will likely get called and have to win a showdown. With only 5BB, we're well into fold-or-shove territory.

We do, however, have 3 orbits worth of blinds left, so we can afford to wait for a hand in what, the top 20%?

T3o is well below average in terms of all-in preflop equity, even against a random hand. If I were going to be put all-in on the next hand by the big blind, I'd fold T3 and take the random hand instead.

[cheburashka]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a very straightforward "all-in preflop equity" question. Shorter than the other players, we have very little fold equity, so we can expect that our shove will likely get called and have to win a showdown. With only 5BB, we're well into fold-or-shove territory.

We do, however, have 3 orbits worth of blinds left, so we can afford to wait for a hand in what, the top 20%?

T3o is well below average in terms of all-in preflop equity, even against a random hand. If I were going to be put all-in on the next hand by the big blind, I'd fold T3 and take the random hand instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno, and I'd like to hear some other opinions (Kip, are you going to weigh in on this one?)

Certainly you are correct that T3o is a worse-than-average hand, and if the hand were all that mattered you would obviously be right. However, it seems to me that the fact that the hand has been folded to us in middle position is very important here. How likely are we before the blinds come to have the opportunity to open? Also, I think you're much too quick to say that we have no fold equity--are the remaining players really going to be so quick to risk 20% of their stacks?

I recently posted a similar hand on MTT, and I asked "What range should I shove with?" Some people said ATC, others defined a range that was pretty wide, but certainly did not include T3o.

[kommunizt]

If a guy with 5BB open-shoved, I'd call ATC in BB.

[Davdob]

T3 versus a random hand is 42.6%. That's a bit weak for my tastes here. I would fold even though the action folded to me. I would consider pushing with any Queen or J8+.

[gedanken]

The big blind has to call 800 for a 1200 pot if it folds to him. Say he'll call with 25%: you're 30% against that range. (even if he thinks you're shoving only 10%, a 25% range for him is +EV)

If the other players only call 10%, you're 25% to survive against one of them.

Say there's a button, cutoff, and two blinds left to act. There's a 45% chance that at least one of them will have a hand to call with. (27% someone beside the BB calls, of the other 73%, button calls %25 for 18% of the total hands). Assuming exactly one opponent:

.55 * 1 * + 300 = +165 no callers (55%)
.27 * .1 * +1000 = + 27 one tight caller, we win (3%)
.27 * .9 * -1000 = -243 one tight caller, we lose (24%)
.18 * .25 * +1000 = + 45 BB calls, we win (4.5%)
.18 * .75 * -1000 = -135 BB calls, we lose (13.5%)

EV = -141 in a ring game

in tournament terms:
we're eliminated 38%
we pick up the blinds 55% -- our M goes from 3 to 4.
we double 7%


T3o is in the 15th percentile of all-in preflop performers, according to pokerstove's algorithm. Forget position, we're just looking to get all-in with a hand that has half a chance to win a showdown. This really isn't it.

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
(Kip, are you going to weigh in on this one?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I voted "Fold". I agree with gedanken's analysis. Even if I was UTG, I'd rather take my chances with the next hand. If you think you have significant fold equity, however, this could be OK. I don't think you do, though.

[Fiepoto]

thanks! I'll do that nxt time.

[mappedout]

just answered all these, i didnt like the last one cause i think folding is just wrong here... but i would also NEVER just go AI with this hand at this point either... so as the question is worded FOLD is the best option of the two obv.

[cheburashka]

OK, since it's generally agreed that I had my head up my a** on Q26, let's try Q27.

5/10 NL Cash game, $1,000 stacks. 9 handed. A tight aggressive player limps UTG, and another limps in middle position. Folded to the small blind who completes. You are in the big blind and check. Your image is tight aggressive.

You hold: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]



Flop: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]


You lead for $35, the UTG limper folds, and the middle position limper raises to $120. (He's a little too tight and a little bit passive. He doesn't like to get himself into many marginal situations.) Small blind folds.

[gedanken]

wow, the testmakers make this easy with the two choices thing.

we've got bottom two, saw flop for free and villain avoids marginal situations. He's not calling a 3BAI for 4x the pot with a hand we can beat. Our bet would announce 2pair+, but we have exactly the worst hand in that range.

If he calls, we're likely losing our $955. If he folds, we're picking up $195.

Folding is better than that.


and I don't think you have your head up anything (now if you'd said call...). Kip agreeing with me made my day! Seriously, I appreciate anyone willing to play devil's advocate rather than simply nod in consensus.