Problem with your book

[master_hellmuth]

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Say there are two roullette wheels. Wheel A has been spun 20 times and has come up red every time! Oddly enough, Wheel B has alternated red and black outcomes for it's 20 spins, and the 20th spin was black. Which wheel is more likely to hit black on it's 21st spin?

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Look, I'm not saying you can definitely know which wheel is going to hit which, I'm not that dense, and thats why they call it gambling. However, the wheel that hit red 20 times in a row is a little more likely to hit black than the one that has been behaving properly according to probability.

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actually, since roullette wheels are mechanical devices, when it lands on red super often it is most likely that there is an inbalance or groove causing it. so it would be more likely to hit on red in the future.

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Modern roulette wheels are tested a lot to ensure that this sort of thing doesn't happen. I know this because as a frequent roulette player i've had many conversations with the dealers.

[Fryguy]

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I think it is, yes.

What kind of roulette wheel would chuck norris play on?

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POTD!

Probability 101.

We flip a coin. It just so happens that it comes up tails 19 times. We flip it again. The chance of it becoming heads is exactly 50/50.

In the VERY LONG run the coin will have exactly the same amount of heads as in tails. But in the short term you may get 2 heads for every 1 tail 100,000 times, and then 2 tails for ever 1 head 100,000 times to even out.

This is what is called variance, and is the entire fundamentals for why casinos are still open, why fish still play poker, and how we make money.

Please learn what you are talking about before you butcher the concept of "due".

Further example. When you flop a 4-flush, it comes in 1 out of 3 times. Let's say you miss it 10 times in a row. Eventually you've got to "make up 3", but this might involve going 2 for 5 3 times instead of going 2 for 6 those same 3 times. That's over 18 flush draws, probably a few thousand hands. As you can see, variance can take a LONG time to even out. Because of this, the chance of the next event being or not being a flush is exactly the same as it was when you started.

This is like basics of gambling man. Go read a book, kill yourself, both, or learn to swim. Do something.

[klezmaniac]

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I don't think anyone is really understanding what's going on here. When you play roulette, the key is to not bet on every spin! You only bet when past events say you'll have an edge betting a certain color or number or whatever.

The thing is, all the "math" types that graduate from universities and write books on the subject are all wrong. The problem is they don't have real casino experience. Unfortunately there's no literature on the real probability stuff. Not sure why.

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And this is why casinos are money losing propositions. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

--klez

[Alk3]

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Say there are two roullette wheels. Wheel A has been spun 20 times and has come up red every time! Oddly enough, Wheel B has alternated red and black outcomes for it's 20 spins, and the 20th spin was black. Which wheel is more likely to hit black on it's 21st spin?

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Look, I'm not saying you can definitely know which wheel is going to hit which, I'm not that dense, and thats why they call it gambling. However, the wheel that hit red 20 times in a row is a little more likely to hit black than the one that has been behaving properly according to probability.

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actually, since roullette wheels are mechanical devices, when it lands on red super often it is most likely that there is an inbalance or groove causing it. so it would be more likely to hit on red in the future.

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Modern roulette wheels are tested a lot to ensure that this sort of thing doesn't happen. I know this because as a frequent roulette player i've had many conversations with the dealers.

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Master is correct. I am a roulette wheel maker, an artisan if you will, and to ensure the integrity of the device we test spin each and every hand-crafted wheel we make. If it lands on either red or black five times in a row, we have a large kung fu master on hand who karate chops the wheel into smithereens.

[siccjay]

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because a long term span will also eventually include a period of time where it comes 19 heads in a row.


[/ QUOTE ] But why? Why will a long term period of time eventually include 19 heads in a row. How do you know this? You are predicting future results.... Based on past events!

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Then I've got a better challenge than playing HU...

You and I will sit down at a table with a quarter. We'll flip it over and over. Everytime we manage to flip heads 19 times in a row - you can give me 100-to-1 on any amount of money that the next (20th) flip will be tails.

Sound like a deal?

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Lol, we'll be sitting at that table for a long time. Plus I'm not saying its impossible for that coin to come up heads on the 20th flip, just more unlikely than tails. So 100:1 is a little steep. I'd definitely give you like 1.5:1 or maybe even 2:1 though.

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Think about WTF you are saying. How is it possible for a NORMAL [censored] COIN to have any other probablity than 50/50? There are only two equal sides it could land on, jackass.

[master_hellmuth]

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because a long term span will also eventually include a period of time where it comes 19 heads in a row.


[/ QUOTE ] But why? Why will a long term period of time eventually include 19 heads in a row. How do you know this? You are predicting future results.... Based on past events!

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Then I've got a better challenge than playing HU...

You and I will sit down at a table with a quarter. We'll flip it over and over. Everytime we manage to flip heads 19 times in a row - you can give me 100-to-1 on any amount of money that the next (20th) flip will be tails.

Sound like a deal?

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Lol, we'll be sitting at that table for a long time. Plus I'm not saying its impossible for that coin to come up heads on the 20th flip, just more unlikely than tails. So 100:1 is a little steep. I'd definitely give you like 1.5:1 or maybe even 2:1 though.

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Think about WTF you are saying. How is it possible for a NORMAL [censored] COIN to have any other probablity than 50/50? There are only two equal sides it could land on, jackass.

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I seriously fail to see your point, in fact, your'e helping to make my point. There are only two sides for it to fall on, and it should fall on them a roughly equal amount of time. Therefore if it has fallen a lot on one side, it will need to even out eventually in this "long run" that everyone keeps talking about. No need to be rude. <font color="white"> </font>

[prana]

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See: gambler's fallacy.

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Have you looked into this yet???

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Its not the same thing as what I'm saying. I'm not saying that past results DEFINITIEVLY PREDICT future outcomes, I'm saying they make them MORE OR LESS LIKELY. I don't get whey people can't understand this.

Anyway, I don't want to insult the book, I've been reading more of it, and it seems good and I like it. Its just this one concept where I disagree.

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Your still reciting what is called gambler's fallacy. Ok here's the first link of many pages when you type in google. I'll do the work for you and show you other people's words since you don't believe anyone here. You aren't just disagreeing with the book you are disagreeing with mathematicians over the last few centuries. Prove your theory and you may become famous.

Gambler's Fallacy

It does NOT say that gambler's fallacy is defined as DEFINITELY predicting something but that even thinking that basing a current (say 50/50 chance) matter of probability on being MORE OR LESS LIKELY because of past events IS GAMBLER'S FALLACY.

[siccjay]

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Say there are two roullette wheels. Wheel A has been spun 20 times and has come up red every time! Oddly enough, Wheel B has alternated red and black outcomes for it's 20 spins, and the 20th spin was black. Which wheel is more likely to hit black on it's 21st spin?

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Look, I'm not saying you can definitely know which wheel is going to hit which, I'm not that dense, and thats why they call it gambling. However, the wheel that hit red 20 times in a row is a little more likely to hit black than the one that has been behaving properly according to probability.

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lmao

Awesome.

[Alk3]

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because a long term span will also eventually include a period of time where it comes 19 heads in a row.


[/ QUOTE ] But why? Why will a long term period of time eventually include 19 heads in a row. How do you know this? You are predicting future results.... Based on past events!

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Then I've got a better challenge than playing HU...

You and I will sit down at a table with a quarter. We'll flip it over and over. Everytime we manage to flip heads 19 times in a row - you can give me 100-to-1 on any amount of money that the next (20th) flip will be tails.

Sound like a deal?

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Lol, we'll be sitting at that table for a long time. Plus I'm not saying its impossible for that coin to come up heads on the 20th flip, just more unlikely than tails. So 100:1 is a little steep. I'd definitely give you like 1.5:1 or maybe even 2:1 though.

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Think about WTF you are saying. How is it possible for a NORMAL [censored] COIN to have any other probablity than 50/50? There are only two equal sides it could land on, jackass.

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I seriously fail to see your point, in fact, your'e helping to make my point. There are only two sides for it to fall on, and it should fall on them a roughly equal amount of time. Therefore if it has fallen a lot on one side, it will need to even out eventually in this "long run" that everyone keeps talking about. No need to be rude. <font color="white"> </font>

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"The problem with the long run is that in it, we'll all be dead"

Adam Smith

[prana]

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And casinos make billions of dollars a year because of dumb tourists who stand on 16's versus a dealer showing ten.

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WRONG!!! They make millions off of ignorant idiots like yourself.