Pro Bowl Players

[mmbt0ne]

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What other CB from the NFC do you put in over him?

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Anyone who wasn't a part of these "defensive" efforts:

Galloway 9 161 0
Ward 8 171 3
Williams 6 138 1
Henderson 4 158 1
Owens 5 69 2

[Jeff W]

The NFC receiver picks are a nightmare, but Owens wasn't the biggest snub. Colston and Glenn were both more valuable than Owens:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Player Tgt Cat Cat/Tgt Yds Yds/Tgt

Owens 137 77 .56 1040 7.6
Colston 105 66 .63 1001 9.5
Glenn 96 63 .66 921 9.6</pre><hr />

Passes to Owens actually gained fewer yards per attempt than the average Dallas pass (8.10) and Owens' number does not include lost yardage due to sacks.

[PokerFink]

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and Owens' number does not include lost yardage due to sacks.

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You lost me there bud. How do you measure that?

[Jeff W]

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and Owens' number does not include lost yardage due to sacks.

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You lost me there bud. How do you measure that?

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The yardage to receivers on FO can't include yardage lost to sacks because it's unknown who would have been the target. The net passing yards/attempt for teams do include that yardage lost.

I was just emphasizing that passes to Owens gained a lot less than the average Cowboys pass attempt. The same bias applies to all receivers.

I still think Owens should make the pro bowl. His TDs and First Down% speak in his favor, but Colston and Glenn were better.

[BWebb]

Jeff,

I agree that Colston was a bigger snub than TO. However, how does that stat prove Glenn is more valuable than TO? Lost somewhere in these numbers is the fact that TO draws the better CB on most plays and I would assume more safety help. I just don't think you can use pure numbers ala baseball to prove the value of players in the NFL.

P.S. Although it might seem to the contrary in this thread, I do not have anything against you.

[Jeff W]

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However, how does that stat prove Glenn is more valuable than TO? Lost somewhere in these numbers is the fact that TO draws the better CB on most plays and I would assume more safety help. I just don't think you can use pure numbers ala baseball to prove the value of players in the NFL.

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Top CBs don't like up against top WRs on every play--OCs generally scheme to get WR#1 on CB#2. I don't remember the exact %s for the matchups, though.

As far as safety help, could be a factor, but the difference between them is pretty big--nearly 2 yards/target and 10% lower catch rate.

We can't prove that Owens was less valuable than Glenn, but those numbers are strong indicators that he was. 2 yards/attempt is the separation between Peyton Manning and Joey Harrington. 10% completion% is the separation between Drew Brees and Jake Plummer.

[BWebb]

Owens' catch rate has definitely been hurt by all the drops he has, no doubt.

Like I said, I just don't think pure statistical analysis can prove anything in football. There are so many question marks in that one stat alone that I could raise:

-Who's drawing the #1 CB more often?
-Who's drawing double coverage more often?
-What routes are being called for each player (Glenn has always been more of a deep threat)?
-How did Bledsoe's familiarity with Glenn early in the year impact Owens' stats?

As you can see, just a ton of factors involved that impact the situation. I think the fact that Glenn's best years are about the same as Owens' average years shows that Owens has been the superior player. I don't think that is any different this year.

[Jeff W]

#1 I addressed. I don't have the exact figures at hand.

#2: No doubt this hurts Owens. No figures to say how much.

#3, 4: The only thing to say about these is that in the cowboys offense[/i], given the routes that were assigned and the target preferences of the QBs, Glenn was situationally more valuable this year. Whether or not Owens could have been more valuable if Dallas utilized him more effectively is debatable.

I tend to think that these factors you mention are overrated. +1.9 yards/attempt, +.10 catches/target is a lot of ground to make up.

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I think the fact that Glenn's best years are about the same as Owens' average years shows that Owens has been the superior player. I don't think that is any different this year.

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This is very dangerous thinking. Players have breakout years, others have breakdown years. This year, Glenn is having a breakout season and Owens hasn't quite been up to his career standard.

[BWebb]

I think valuable is the wrong word to use in this case. If you were to say Glenn has been more efficient I'd agree. More valuable?? I don't think so.

[hauchen]

I think you're wrong about Gore. Watch him play first please.