A bluff 400NL

[mason55]

omg this theread makes me want to stab myself.

ahnuld you over estimate the numer of ppl in msnl who know how to play poker.

[cts]

Frustrating thread to read. The decision is NOT close FeltBelt. If you decide to bluff, AI >>>> $150 or whatever.

[cardsharkk04]

Damn that link Yvesaint

[gergery]

I'd have chk-raised the turn. as played, I check-fold the river. there just aren't enough hands he'll call the turn with but fold to a river bet with THAT you are behind to. if you bet 150 then he needs to fold a better hand 33% of the time, if you bet 300 then he must fold 50% of the time. neither of those seems likely given he called the turn. and keep in mind that some of the folds you will generate on the river with bet you would have won anyway (ie. worse suited connectors in spades) -- you can only count folds from hands you're behind to.

fwiw, game theory is way over-rated. sure, its nice to have optimal bluffing frequencies, and making sure you bet the same way with bluffs and monsters in weighted mixed strategy is well and good. But all that assumes your opponnets are paying attention. and that they'll be at the table long enough to see you act in severl different scenrios.

To paraphrase Barry Greenstein in a LiveattheBike episode, "don't worry about playing hands different ways to generate deception. Make the right play for the situation you are in. you'll get all the deception value you need by playing the same hands in the same situation in different ways because the opponent is different."

-g

[doran]

Speaking as one of the bigger fish at 400nl, an all-in river bet here would push me to fold my top pair, pocket 10s, pocket 88s.. but more likely with this board, my busted flush or straight draw that always gets me in trouble. I can only call this push with 87, 2 pair or a large pocket pair.

But hey, its my first pòst and I am admittingly a fish. Who would easily fold to this river play.

[stewcrew]

call me a donk but I think I usually bluff with a half pot bet on average. (meaning sometimes 1/3 pot then other times 2/3). In this situation if I were going to bluff I would have to push I agree. however in my short experience I have seen alot of bluffs in spots like this of 1/2 to 2/3 the pot.