Average Speed IV Game Thread!

[wdcbooks]

I know what I would do if I was Xorbie, and this was a fake seer routine. I would go AFK for the day, or only come in very late in the day when it is too late to change the existing bandwagons. I really feel like we are being played here, and Xorbie is very good at it. This would present a problem as we all wait for him and he never comes. Night falls and we have lynched another villager.

The only hole in my theory is the lack of the real seer. I can't think of any situation where it doesn't make sense for him to come forward. Even with no wolves. If Xorbie is a fake seer then we have:

IY
DankHank and
thebram

as likely wolves, as well as Xorbie of course. If he is real, he needs to tell us who he looked at early in the day and let us decide if he is telling the truth.

[wdcbooks]

[ QUOTE ]
xorbie shouldn't be lynched unless the real seer comes out. Btw, if someone else is the real seer, that person has to come out now so we can start sorting things out. After they left Traz and Tokyo alive, I am not that surprised that xorbie is still here. I'm running out of ideas about what this master plan of theirs could be, so my new theory is that they haven't been PMing Kyro and he's randomly killing people at night.

As far as the vote today, I'm fine with voting wdcbooks or whoever xorbie suggests unless another seer comes out of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way I am voting along with Xorbie's suggestion.

[.Alex.]

wdc,

This is the problem. We have to assume xorbie is the real seer unless someone else comes out. Anything else is just foolish.

[wdcbooks]

[ QUOTE ]
wdc,

This is the problem. We have to assume xorbie is the real seer unless someone else comes out. Anything else is just foolish.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't mean we have to vote for who he votes for. This would get interesting if he came out and said he saw a wolf though.

[Tokyo!!]

I believe that if xorbie is fake, that dankhank is a wolf. In any event I don't think we can lynch him today. We are going to be unable to figure out what is true and what is false today anyhow. It would seem that not killing xorbie is stupid for the wolves because if he is the seer leaving him alive is very dangerous. What is more likely is that he is the wolf and he will lead us astray for a round or two while the wolves continue to seer hunt tonight. Lynching xorbie today is bad if he is the seer, but I also believe that what he has to say should not factor greatly into who we lynch today, especially if he claims a "wolf." I suggest lynching someone apart from both xorbie and the "confirmed" villager lists. I'm also going to the Mets-Yankees game tonight, so I'll be gone after 6pm too. Vote JaredL

[.Alex.]

If he saw a wolf, we certainly have to vote for that person. FWIW, I only said I, personally, wanted to vote for who he votes for because I trust his reads more than I trust mine right now.

[traz]

jared? wtf, we learn nothin from that.

this village is crazy

[Iron_Yuppie]

If the seer has no wolves, I don't think they should come out (mostly).

After we lynch xorbie (if we believe the new seer), and the wolves eat our real seer, it would then 11 villagers against 4 wolves. Say our seer has 3 live villagers besides tokyo and traz. That would mean we would have 5 confirmed villagers, and 10 others, 4 of which are wolves.

If we perform averagely, over the next 5 rounds, the wolves will (or should) eat our 5 confirmed villagers, and we will lynch 2 wolves and 3 villagers, putting us at 3 villagers to 2 wolves, which is a likely losing scenario.

I think that with no wolves and 2 or less alive and exclusive (not tokyo or traz) villagers, the seer should definitely keep shut. With 0 and 3, it i smore of a judgment call, but I'd still keep quiet. With at least one wolf, or 4 useful villagers, I think he or she should come out.

[Tokyo!!]

It has nothing to do with "learning" anything, it has everythign to do with killing a wolf. Personally I don't believe xorbie, and think he is a wolf. I thought so pretty much every day so far, and if he didn't come out he would've been dead. Sure the wolves could have left him alive for us to lynch, but that's risky on their part considering he might come up with a wolf that night. I think who xorbie "saw" last night will be very telling about his true persona because I know who I'd peek (or a couple people).

[JaredL]

Guys,

I've said in many posts here that if someone comes out as seer it's often best to lynch them. I think that if xorbie is telling the truth, having that information now would be huge. If he's not telling the truth we have a wolf. I'm going to wait until he makes a post and then vote for him.