AVERAGE SPEED VIII: GAME THREAD

[soah]

If chuckles and Magra are wolves, then why does Magra make a throwaway vote on Day 1? He could vote for either of them to make himself look better, or vote for bobO to try to avert the lynch (unless BobO, chuckles, and Magra are ALL wolves? - but then he could vote for ANY of those three to make himself look better)

If chuckles is not a wolf, and Magra is a wolf, then the question remains: why the throwaway vote?

btw, these same questions could be asked about Horn, who voted for worthless a little while after Magra voted for aaron

If chuckles is a villager, why did he vote Bobo when it was 4-4-2 chuckles-patton-bobo?

Patton votes for chuckles. Why would he not switch to bobO once the voting started to shift in that direction?

bobO wasn't around at all for the end of the day. He left his vote on chuckles. I'm not sure if we can draw any conclusions from that.

thebram comes in and votes bobo - it could be a wolf trying to save a wolf, but if so, why doesn't Patton vote bobo?

Still more questions than answers, but chuckles voting for bobo instead of Patton at the time that he did is pretty significant, I think, even though I'm still trying to figure out the rest of it. Hopefully looking at Day 2 will shed some more light on this.

I refreshed after writing this and I see we have new developments. I think books is a lousy choice right now, but I agree that the bobO wagon doesn't look good. Does this mean we're going to run with the assumption that bobO is a villager for now? I mean... why else would you be trying to save him?

[durron597]

[0] aaronk56 voted for thebram
[6] BobOjedaFan voted for thebram
[1] chuckleslovakian voted for BobOjedaFan
[0] dmk voted for BobOjedaFan
[0] fnord_too voted for soah
[0] GetThere1Time
[0] hornacek voted for magra
[1] magra voted for BobOjedaFan
[0] McNutty voted for BobOjedaFan
[0] mdorand voted for wdcbooks
[0] nicholasp27 voted for wdcbooks
[0] ScottHoward voted for BobOjedaFan
[1] soah voted for thebram
[4] thebram voted for chuckleslovakian
[3] wdcbooks voted for BobOjedaFan
[0] wmonfor voted for thebram
[0] zurvan voted for wdcbooks

[MDoranD]

Soah,

Right now I much prefer Chuckles/Magra over anyone, but WDC will suffice over Bobo.

As far as the voting histories you were talking about, Im not sure. Maybe Chuckles didnt want to vote off a wolf buddy of his, maybe he had another motive, but I DONT think we can assume that the wolves will ALWAYS make the highest % play. If they did the village would almost never win these games.

[Hornacek]

wdcbooks

[soah]

No, they won't ALWAYS make the obvious correct play, but they have to do it most of the time in order to have a chance.

[soah]

Okay, I wrote up a voting summary for the second half of Day 2. I will post it if someone wants to see it, but I think it's pointless. With four hours left, Tokyo and luckay were the two wagons. There were two votes on books, and some lone votes scattered out there. There was never any point in time where anyone other than luckay or Tokyo was in much danger of being lynched, so the wolves could do just about anything they want. The only thing possibly worth noting is that bobo and chuckles were voting for each other the entire time, just as they did on Day 1.

Looking earlier in the day there was a point where tokyo, books, chuckles, and books all had two votes apiece, but once again there's not much to be learned from the subsequent voting. It's just too easy for the wolves to blend in with the confused villagers... and without knowing for sure about the roles of chuckles and books, we don't even know what to look for.

So overall I'd say that Day 2 voting gives us nothing to work with at this stage. Attempting to include it in my earlier analysis was a mistake. I think at this point I should move Horn back to the unknown category. With Magra, there are just so many small things that jump out in his posts, and I'm not certain whether they are lazy villagery mistakes, or poor wolf cover. As for thebram, here is a quick Day 2 recap:

[ QUOTE ]
Nice job to those that saw patton.

I'm feeling a tokyo eviction today

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Soah, I viewed that post by Magra as so bad, it was villagerish. I think he just wanted to say something. He wasn't going to get anyone to vote me there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I came to a somewhat similar conclusion. I'd like to see more posts from Magra before making any determinations. That post could very well be the result of not quite being caught up with that's going on.

On another note, am I the only one with any interest in worthless or thebram right now?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

[/ QUOTE ]

me: Well, we know thebram is lurking around this morning, but not conversing. Perhaps a vote will help motivate. I'm not opposed to a Tokyo lynch, but I'd really like to get input from thebram/worthless/dmk/magra and some others before getting too carried away on Tokyo.

[ QUOTE ]
it wont

[/ QUOTE ]

That was his last post until today. I don't know how he usually plays, but those posts and subsequent silence didn't feel right to me, which is why I left that vote in place.

[wdcbooks]

[ QUOTE ]
wdcbooks

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Horn, you won't survive very long after I am dead.

On the off chance that you are not a wolf, I am a villager and I think my defense was fairly convincing. With that said, soldier on.

[MDoranD]

magra Why not guys...it makes sense.

[wmonfor]

just got back from school

from the looks of things, everyone is jumping on magra and wdcbooks. I'm still a fan of a thebram lynch, mainly because he hasn't done anything to prove that he is a villager. I think if he was a villager he would be in panic mode to try and prove that he's not a wolf.

still voting thebram

[GetThere1Time]

all,

if house doesnt get back to me shortly I'm going to start hacking into this monster of a thread. I'll hopefully have some input before night.