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#842
05-21-2006, 10:13 AM
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Re: Average Speed IV Game Thread!
Xorbie almost has to be a fake seer. It is concievable that the wolves might have left him alive for us to lynch the next day. What doesn't make any sense is their kill if that was true. They would absolutely have to kill one of Xorbie's confirmed villagers, not MDorand. Otherwise when Xorbie was shown as the seer we would have too many confirmed villagers and too small a pool of potential wolves.
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#844
05-21-2006, 10:17 AM
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Re: Average Speed IV Game Thread!
[ QUOTE ]
Xorbie almost has to be a fake seer. It is concievable that the wolves might have left him alive for us to lynch the next day. What doesn't make any sense is their kill if that was true. They would absolutely have to kill one of Xorbie's confirmed villagers, not MDorand. Otherwise when Xorbie was shown as the seer we would have too many confirmed villagers and too small a pool of potential wolves. [/ QUOTE ] I thought it was a possibility that they wouldn't kill xorbie, just to create some confusion. I will admit, I didn't really think that it was worth the risk if he is the real seer, though.
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#845
05-21-2006, 10:22 AM
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Re: Average Speed IV Game Thread!
[ QUOTE ]
Xorbie almost has to be a fake seer. It is concievable that the wolves might have left him alive for us to lynch the next day. What doesn't make any sense is their kill if that was true. They would absolutely have to kill one of Xorbie's confirmed villagers, not MDorand. Otherwise when Xorbie was shown as the seer we would have too many confirmed villagers and too small a pool of potential wolves. [/ QUOTE ] okay i'm going to just post my thoughts now, before this day gets out of hand. guys, today the clear play is pudley or wdcbooks. based on this post he just made, and his vote switch to chuckles yesterday, i think wdcbooks is our top choice. let's not forget. wdcbooks said he would vote by proxy with the confirmed villagers. he didn't do this. traz and tokyo voted pudley, books voted chuckles. so not only did he mislead us in days 1-3 about xorbie and GT1T, but he also misled us yesterday, even after admitting he looked like a clear wolf throughout. my feelings on yesterday are this. in the evening i posted a suspect list of: wdcbooks, pudley, elevens, iron_yuppie, mdorand, and thebram. at the time pudley led in votes, with chucles in second. in the subsequent hours we saw a bandwagon form around chuckles. this bandwagon was led by people like wdcbooks and mdorand, while elevans talked and stalled and voted no one. then near the deadline thebram and pudley voted for chuckles. they were all vocal throughout the evening hours. chuckles was a villager. i think if we look at the people who led the charge against him late, we will be looking at a bunch of wolves. if xorbie wasn't the seer, the real seer would've come out by now. this is obvious. don't let wdcbooks or anyone else mislead you again today. vote wdcbooks to reiterate, i think the most likely wolves at the moment are: wdcbooks, pudley, thebram, elevens, and iron_yuppie. hornacek and istrong are also strong possibilities. istrong for helping chuckles die yesterday, and hornacek for waking up today and trying to get us to lynch xorbie.
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#846
05-21-2006, 10:22 AM
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Re: Average Speed IV Game Thread!
[ QUOTE ]
Xorbie almost has to be a fake seer. It is concievable that the wolves might have left him alive for us to lynch the next day. What doesn't make any sense is their kill if that was true. They would absolutely have to kill one of Xorbie's confirmed villagers, not MDorand. Otherwise when Xorbie was shown as the seer we would have too many confirmed villagers and too small a pool of potential wolves. [/ QUOTE ] I was thinking about this. If xorbie is the real seer, than the only reason not to kill him is if they were 100% sure we would lynch him tomorrow. The way that makes him look most guilty is to lynch someone on the non-confirmed villagers list. I think these wolves, whether xorbie is or isn't fake, have a healthy dose of FPS. I think we can afford to wait until tomorrow to find out though. The way this kill makes sense, if xorbie is a fake, is that there have to be a concentration of wolves (I think 2/4) in his "villager sees", since else, they would not be gaining much by sacrificing the seer. Since we would likely lynch everyone on that list if xorbie is fake, they do not want to make our jobs easier be getting someone on that list. This does not explain why the didn't kill tokyo and traz though. If xorbie is a fake, the wolves were likely still seer hunting with this last kill.
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#848
05-21-2006, 10:29 AM
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Re: Average Speed IV Game Thread!
The real seer need to come out NOW. I don't care what you have seen, by proving Xorbie is a fake we will have all the information we need. I am absolutley convinced Xorbie is not the seer. If the seer is someone like Cezar who hasn't played before, just trust me, you must come out.
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#850
05-21-2006, 10:34 AM
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Re: Average Speed IV Game Thread!
prediction: we're probably going to see a wolf pretend to be the "real seer" today.
also for the record i don't think it's 100% that xorbie is telling the truth. but based on the entire game so far and what i've seen from everyone, i put it at 95% that xorbie is for real.
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