**Official uNL Microbrew thread: January (nc)**

[kabouter]

[ QUOTE ]
BIGGEST POT EVAH!!!

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $50
CO: $22.95
Button: $44.90
SB: $41.25
BB: $45.30

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7</font>, Button calls, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises all-in $43.3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero calls all-in $41</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button calls all-in $35.9</font>.
Uncalled bets: $5.1 returned to Hero.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($136.7, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $136.7, Sidepot 1: $0.8)


River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($136.7, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $136.7, Sidepot 1: $0.8)


Results:
Final pot: $136.7
<font color="#ffffff">Hero shows Ks Kh </font>
<font color="#ffffff">Button doesn't show Qh 8s </font>
<font color="#ffffff">BB doesn't show Qc Qs </font>


My call on flop: I don't know. Had no reads. I thought: drawy flop, blabla. Other villain was a donk, btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where do you find these guys, especially the button :P

[wallywojo]

what time on Sunday for that tourney? The Bears are on and us Bears fans only get chances like this once every 20 years or so.

[jonyy6788]

He had a draw yo! Pot committed! He's 30% to win....he only made a 5% mistake. Called $35 to win $100

[kabouter]

It doesn't really matter that much to me but 9 gmt or 10 gmt seems ok with me.

[Keys Myaths]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BIGGEST POT EVAH!!!

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $50
CO: $22.95
Button: $44.90
SB: $41.25
BB: $45.30

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7</font>, Button calls, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises all-in $43.3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero calls all-in $41</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button calls all-in $35.9</font>.
Uncalled bets: $5.1 returned to Hero.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($136.7, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $136.7, Sidepot 1: $0.8)


River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($136.7, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $136.7, Sidepot 1: $0.8)


Results:
Final pot: $136.7
<font color="#ffffff">Hero shows Ks Kh </font>
<font color="#ffffff">Button doesn't show Qh 8s </font>
<font color="#ffffff">BB doesn't show Qc Qs </font>


My call on flop: I don't know. Had no reads. I thought: drawy flop, blabla. Other villain was a donk, btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where do you find these guys, especially the button :P

[/ QUOTE ]

What's wrong with the button's play? Unless someone was drawing to the flush, he was right to call.

[kabouter]

I'm probably being leveled here, but besides his preflop call, he only has 6 outs tops... pot odds... it just doesn't add up... I'm sure I'm getting leveled here...sigh

[jonyy6788]

You're not being leveled....he's pretty much committed to calling the all-in (see previous post). He only made a slight mistake. Double gutshot

[keikiwai]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BIGGEST POT EVAH!!!

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $50
CO: $22.95
Button: $44.90
SB: $41.25
BB: $45.30

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7</font>, Button calls, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises all-in $43.3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero calls all-in $41</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button calls all-in $35.9</font>.
Uncalled bets: $5.1 returned to Hero.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($136.7, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $136.7, Sidepot 1: $0.8)


River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($136.7, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $136.7, Sidepot 1: $0.8)


Results:
Final pot: $136.7
<font color="#ffffff">Hero shows Ks Kh </font>
<font color="#ffffff">Button doesn't show Qh 8s </font>
<font color="#ffffff">BB doesn't show Qc Qs </font>


My call on flop: I don't know. Had no reads. I thought: drawy flop, blabla. Other villain was a donk, btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where do you find these guys, especially the button :P

[/ QUOTE ]

What's wrong with the button's play? Unless someone was drawing to the flush, he was right to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure button has no clue that he's ~33% vs. 2 overpairs. The OTB call is pretty nasty. And he will often be against a FD or 2, ESPECIALLY since the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is MIA

[Keys Myaths]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm probably being leveled here, but besides his preflop call, he only has 6 outs tops... pot odds... it just doesn't add up... I'm sure I'm getting leveled here...sigh

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just talking about the flop call, obviously. The preflop call is tragic.

[Triggerle]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't mind the losing as much as the nagging feeling that I might just suck at poker. I mean, you can only blame variance for so long, but if you're on your 3rd massive downswing within 2 months, you should be pointing fingers to yourself first, before even thinking of blaming variance. That's why I went through all that paranoia style DB analysis in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think there is a tendency to underestimate variance. Reasons for this include that wee see people's amazing graphs because people love to brag (which is fine because it's a great feeling) but we fail to realise that such a brag is only a very special case out of a huge sample size of posters and timespans. Not only may the person who brags be the one in a few thousand who runs hot it may also be that he doesn't run that hot the other 51 weeks of the year.

We have to realise that a win-rate of 5PTBB/100 means that we win only a few percents more sessions than we lose, something like 53/47. Now if we look at the long run in terms of sesions won/lost the long run is very, very long, at least thousands of sessions. This also means that losing every session for a whole week is, statistically, a perfectly normal thing to occur.

Everyone knows this nagging feeling but there's no reason to doubt yourself too much if you have analysed your play, posted hands, and couldn't really find too much wrong.

I am down 10 buy-ins at NL50 this month and have the same nagging feeling but I analysed my play and I'm sure most of it is from variance rather than bad play. For example I had 33 sets this month and lost 8 of them, which is about twice the size it should be in the long run. Also, among the ones won were, naturally, many, where I didn't get any action, while the ones I lost were all for stacks.

I think dropping down is still the right thing to do even if you are properly rolled. This is because at a lower stake your true winrate is likely to be higher, which means that your ratio of losing/winning sessions will be better for you on a psychological level.